Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-10-17 01:07:54

Constituency Profile


Brosseau, Ruth Ellen

Burton, Cate

Destrempes, Pierre

Foucrault, Marianne

Perron, Yves

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 3040.62%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (197/219 polls, 87.35% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Ruth Ellen Brosseau

   (22/219 polls, 12.65% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Francine Raynault


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15 10 13 Teddy Boragina
Note of interest:
The Green Party candidate in this riding is the child of the current leader of that party.
15 09 20 A.S.
All cooing over Vegas Girl gone Golden-Girl aside, this'd probably still be lower-hanging Bloc fruit than some, not least for being across the St. Lawrence from Louis Plamondon's fiefdom--not that BQ's in any strong position to take advantage. In fact, darned if cult-hero Brosseau didn't turn out to be more Bloc-repellent than Bloc-fodder. (Still, just in case...)
15 09 03 Tony
Brosseau has gone from being the candidate who went to Vegas in 2011 and never bothered to campaign to being 1 of the best performing MP's out of those elected in 2011, she'll get in again and has an outside shot at cabinet should the NDP form government.
15 08 03 John
I did a little background reading on our Las Vegas girl.
Let's face it, back in 2011, she was a paper candidate running so the NDP could have someone on the ballot. So I don't blame her for going on vacation instead of campaigning. I would have done the same thing.
Since getting elected, she has done a lot of work to improve her French. She holds a junior position in the NDP shadow cabinet (Deputy Agriculture Critic) and Vice Chair of the NDP National Caucus. So she is being groomed to move up in the party.
So if what I am reading is accurate, she will keep this seat.
15 06 08 Mr. Dave
Ruth-Ellen Brosseau took all the criticism that was thrown at her after the 2011 election, and came out with her dignity intact.
Unlike some of the Parliamentarians who've been embarrassments to the House of Commons (Calandra, Del Mastro, etc.) Ruth-Ellen has done her best to be the best M.P. she could be.
NDP hold!
15 04 03 Jay
Brosseau has done everything everyone on here says she's done since 2011. And she has a good underdog, populist story. Four years later, she would win now, no matter how well (or poorly) the NDP did in the province.
And she speaks French quite well.
15 03 28 monkey
Ruth Ellen Brousseau despite being subject to ridicule has turned out surprisingly well, but at the end of the day this riding tends to go whichever way the province goes thus while at the moment it would call this for the NDP, a lot can change between now and the election.
15 03 24 B.W.
Four years ago, the media portrayed Ruth Ellen as Vegas Girl, someone who never spoke a word of French, nor set foot in the riding, etc. Four years later, Ruth Ellen is now one of the prominent NDP MPs in House of Commons serving as agricultural critic, speaking both languages, and serving her constituents in addition to attending various events in her riding of Berthier-Maskinonge. Ruth Ellen is becoming very popular among the locals in the riding, and there is no doubt in my mind that she deserves to be reelected.
15 03 22 Brian A
In 2011, this riding elected an inexperienced, unprepared and very surprised NDP candidate - a young woman who so thoroughly expected her candidacy to be nothing more than a name on a ballot that she spent a portion of the election in Vegas. When she was voted in on the Orange Crush, she became the poster child for what a joke the NDP sweep in Quebec was. Here was elected a unilingual woman in a HEAVILY francophone riding, who probably didn't even know where the riding was prior to being elected in it. She was mocked...she was laughed at...she was downright bullied by the media. She could have realized she was in over her head, and she definitely could have been excused for apologizing and stepping down. But did she? NO! Ruth Ellen learned French, entrenched herself in her riding and became a proud public servant to her constituents! By all accounts, her constituents love the success story that is their MP, and for good reason as anybody can get elected in a riding, but few like Ruth Ellen have worked as hard to make the riding their own. She will be rewarded this year by getting re-elected...and should celebrate her victory with a well-deserved trip to Vegas. :)
15 03 21 Dr. Bear
I agree that Brosseau is the NDP's best asset in this riding. Funny that, given how she was the laughing-stock of the election in 2011. Who's laughing now? She has worked hard to earn the trust and respect of her constituents, as well as the NDP caucus. Look how close she sits to the font benches! Despite this, I am being cautious and saying TCTC. This was a stronghold for the BQ and they were only edged out in 2011. They haven't lost all support and will have a good showing. Also, there is evidence that the Liberals are doing relatively well in this riding. While I think a Liberal win is a really long shot, they may be the spoilers that allow the BQ to win. If compelled to make a decision, I would say Brosseau's hard work would pay off and she'd be safely returned to Ottawa with a respectable plurality.
15 03 17 DT
While this may be a nationalist riding, it seems to have accepted Brosseau as one of their own, especially as their MP. She is very visible in the riding and is held in high-esteem by the populace. She will need to campaign this time around (the NDP position on a recent bill is deeply unpopular in rural ridings), but it won't go to waste. Brosseau should win, once again, perhaps with a higher percentage.

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