Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-03-21 12:41:17

Constituency Profile


Angers, Luc

Bellavance, Guy J

Boily, Philippe

Boivin, Françoise

Dostaler, Guy

MacKinnon, Steven

Soublière, Pierre

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (234/234 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Françoise Boivin


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15 09 20 A.S.
It's still hard to tell how much substance there is to Boivin beyond her prototypical and pacesetting defeated-Grit-backbencher-gone-NDP mystique--however, MacKinnon was already made mincemeat out of in his 2011 so-called 'star candidate' turnl; and while it's possible that Boivin will be brought a little further down to earth this time, I'd wait another cycle for a Liberal 'star' to pose a true challenge. And besides, lacking as it does Aylmer-style nuclear-Anglo nodes, Gatineau was always a soft-ish sort of 'Liberal stronghold'--thus its going Bloc in 2006/8 (and Mulroney PC in 1984)
15 09 17 #ABC51
The previous poster is either smoking pot with Justin Trudeau or on the Liberal Party's payroll
The NDP is still up by about 15 points in Quebec and the incumbent won this riding by 51 points in 2011. As Boivin is a popular, high-profile MP who has done nothing to bring disrepute to her office or her constituents, there is no plausible way that this riding votes Liberal.
The last nail in the Liberal Party's coffin is that polls after the 2011 election showed that voters who remained with the Bloc Quebecois were extremely left-wing. If these voters abandon the Bloc at all, they will either stay home or vote NDP.
Boivin by at least 40.
15 09 12 Political enthusiast
This one is going to be a close call, unlike what everyone is suggesting. It is way too early to tell. Steve MacKinnon (LPC) is being highly underestimated here. He is one of the top Liberal candidates in Québec. Let's not forget that this riding was always red (except for one time) from 1945 to 2006 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gatineau_(electoral_district).
MacKinnon has knocked on more than 15,000 doors so far and has become a known public figure in the community and having gained a lot of 4. Boivin, on the other hand, seems to be taking the riding for granted. Here is a quote from August 11 (La Presse), stating that she believes there is almost no chance that this riding turns red again:
« Les chances que ça s'en aille au Parti libéral sont assez minces. Il faudrait qu'ils viennent chercher dans ma talle à moi? Eh bien, bonne chance ! », dit-elle au cours d'une entrevue téléphonique réalisée avant de se rendre au Festival country du Grand Gatineau pour « écouter le spectacle ». « Je ne m'en vais pas faire de la politique. »
After all, she is the incumbent and obtained over 60% of the vote in 2011, but don't count MacKinnon out. As for the other parties, it looks like a long shot. The Bloc has faded in Quebec and it doesn't seem like Philippe Boily can turn it around. Conservatives have a decent candidate in Luc Angers (municipal counselor), but he's simply running in the wrong party.
15 09 02 Tony
NDP hold on here. Boivin is going to be a big time player should the NDP form government.
15 07 05 NonPartisan
Francoise Boivin's strength as an NDP candidate in Gatineau in 2008 prior to the NDP wave shows she is well organized and has a strong team. She should not have a hard time being re-elected.
15 03 28 monkey
Francois Boivin almost won as an NDP candidate in 2008 and is well liked. Besides with a large number of civil servants, this is by nature an NDP friendly riding. It only went Liberal before the NDP established themselves in Quebec and likewise the BQ was a threat, but with the BQ dormant and the NDP now having a strong presence in Quebec, this should stay NDP.
15 03 21 Dr. Bear
If it were not for Francois Boivin, I would be saying this is too close to call. This used to be solid Liberal territory (pre-sponsorship scandal) and the Liberals are recuperating in their former strongholds. Nevertheless, Boivin is well known, well regarded and a front-bencher for the NDP. I suspect she'll outshine her party in Quebec.

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