Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-07-15 15:31:26

Constituency Profile


Lwalalika, Affine

Nantel, Pierre

O'Grady, Michael

Poitras, Casandra

Sedlak, John

Trudel, Denis

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 870.17%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (183/243 polls, 77.73% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Pierre Nantel

   (60/243 polls, 22.27% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Djaouida Sellah


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15 10 15 Mr_Vince
A liberal win here would be plausible.
After a first horrible debate, trudeau has shown the quebecers that he is ready and won't act the way his father did. My own father who never considered vote Liberal, voted for Mr. Trudeau for the first time last week! I'm sure he's not the only one.
Therefore, A liberal win is possible (even in Longueuil), still with very, very low chances. Watch them to finish second equals to bloc. Still, NPD win here. who would have think that in a hard sovereinist city
Watch the other Longueuil riding (Charles-Lemoyne) to be a 4% battle between Libs and NPD.
15 10 11 #ABC51
The idea of anybody other than the NDP or the Bloc winning in Longueuil is laughable. I'll stick with the NDP.
15 10 10 Teddy Boragina
This riding will not be sending a Conservative MP to Ottawa on these polling numbers. It's far more likely a Liberal or BQ member would win. The Tories would need to be clearly ahead in the Corona for them to win here, and there is 0 evidence of them doing so well in the area.
15 10 10 Spx
@ Neal Ford -- I am not sure if you posted in the right riding, not in a million years will Longueuil send a Conservative to Ottawa. Back to my original post: this is probably the strongest Liberal riding after Brossard, but even with a Liberal surge, I s
15 10 09 Neal Ford
I am now comfortable enough to say this riding will be sending a Conservative to Ottawa. The Tory support in the region has been steadily growing at NDP expense that this riding which changes MPs reguklary will fall into the Tory column this time.
15 09 20 A.S.
Even a Grit Bombardier would have been bombarded to smithereens around these parts: it's solid Bloc-turned-NDP heartland and Nantel's held his own (And 'heartland' in the sense that if it were Ontario, it'd be more Hamilton/Oshawa-like than your typical red/blue 905 swinger.)
15 06 29 mr_vince
thus the Bloc has gain momentum with duceppe's return, it will stay N.D.P. even if Longueuil is a long time independentist city, people hate soo much the tories in here that they'll prefer to vote for someone who has a chance to gain power than be in the opposition. NDP is the party where people find most common values in so they will stick with them. Bloc will indeed gets more vote than 2011 but not enough to take back the riding
It will stay a safe riding for Pierre Nantel.
15 06 09 Observer
Selon La Presse, on a des nouvelles ce matin que Gilles Duceppe sera de retour comme chef Bloquiste. Mario Beaulieu s'est rendu compte que sous son direction, le Bloc Quebecois va nulle-part et risquait d'etre éffacé du carte électorale, donc, on a arrivé a une enetente qu reverra M. Duceppe a son ancien position.
Est ce que ca changera beaucoup? Avant d'accepter, l'équipe de M. Duceppe a prs une sondage, et a découvert que Le Bloc attirera 3 fois des voix sur son directon qu'a celle de M. Beaulieu. Sans doute Il pourrait attirer de l'argent et des candidates, possiblement des vedettes de son anien équipe.
Alors je crois que le Bloc poura faire in impacte non-negligible cette élection, en reprendre des sieges en Monterégie, Laurentides, Lanaudiere, Gaspésie, Mauricie, Lac St Jean et en quelques circonscriptions en Estrie.
Restez branchés.
According to La Presse, there is news today that Gilles Duceppe will be returning to the leadership of the Bloc Quebecois. Mario Beaulieu had come to terms with the fact that the party was going nowhere fast under his leadership, perhaps even looking a a complete wipeout, so they arrived at a deal that would see M. Duceppe return to his old job.
Will that change much? Before accepting, Duceppe's team commissioned a poll and found that the Bloc would attract 3 times as many votes under Duceppe than they would under M. Beaulieu. No doubt he will also bring in some much needed money, and some candidates, perhaps many from his old caucus.
Therefore I believe the Bloc could pose a threat to win seats in Montéregie, Laurentides, Lanaudiere, Gaspésie, Maurice. Lac St Jean and some ridings in the Eastern Townships.
Stay tuned
15 03 24 Dr. Bear
Hunh! One of the nominees for the Liberal candidacy is Charles Bombardier...yes, of THAT Bombardier family. This could be a coup for the Liberals in a riding where they currently have little hope. Waiting to see what happens before further assessing.

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