Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-10-18 00:32:54

Constituency Profile


Gauvin, David

Godin, Joël

Harvey, Raymond

Michaud, Élaine

Morin, Johanne

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 1459427.82%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (201/201 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Élaine Michaud


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15 10 17 Tes
Polls in the Sageunay region and in Montreal show the CPC performing WORSE than they did in 2011 - so if the regional polls for Quebec are accurate, it looks like all of the CPC support is concentrated in Quebec City and the area south of the St. Lawrence. Looks like the CPC may be racking in massive margin victories in this area (if the polls are to be correct). For that reason I predict a CPC pick up.
15 10 11 Dr. Bear
Careful with the quick and crazy predictions for the conservatives and/or bloc. Both parties are up in the polls, but they are only polling (at the moment) around what they had on e-day in 2011. They were so far behind in Quebec that they are just now caught up to where they were when they bombed in the province. That said, this riding has always had a conservative streak. If the NDP continue to slide in Quebec, I wouldn't be surprised if this goes go for team blue....just not yet...
15 10 09 observer
Given the sharp and dramatic uptick in the Quebec City region for the Tories, Andre Arthur's old seat should finally swing officially into Tory hands. There is a Tory base here, as Howard Bruce turned in some very respectable numbers here for the fledgling Canadian Alliance back in the day.
15 10 03 JFBreton
Before the last french debate on TVA, Jean-Marc Léger from Léger Marketing presented this poll for Quebec City area: Conservatives 48%, NDP 20%, Bloc 17%, Liberal 14%, Green 2%. Maybe a short win for Conservatives here.
15 09 29 R.O.
This is an interesting riding cause it had elected independent mp Andre Arthur from 2006-2011 and hasn't had conservative candidates the last 2 elections . but this election there is now a conservative candidate Joel Godin . Mulcair also visited the riding recently a sign its likely close .also new polls for Quebec from Abacus data that have ndp 30 , lib 24, cpc 21 and bloc 20 province wide. A riding like this could definity be one to watch.
C'est une circonscription intéressante, cause qu'il avait élu député indépendant Andre Arthur de 2006-2011 et n'a pas eu les candidats conservateurs les 2 dernières élections . Mais cette élection il y a maintenant un candidat conservateur Joel Godin . Mulcair a également visité la circonscription récemment un signe de sa probable fermer .également de nouveaux sondages pour le Québec d'Abacus données qui ont NPD 30 , lib 24, CPC 21 et le bloc 20 à l'échelle de la province. Une circonscription de ce genre pourraient definity à surveiller. être
15 09 21 A.S.
It *shouldn't* be such an easy NDP hold; after all, this was the heart of Alliance support in QC in 2000--the trouble is, even if he 'caucused' with the Cons, Andre Arthur blurred the picture totally. Yet I still can't offer that NDP prediction for Portneuf--all because of that enduring 'Andre Arthur' shock-talk coarseness around the edges. Hey, it's probably the most Lynton Crosby-compatible seat in all of Quebec...
15 09 17 #ABC51
André Arthur isn't running here while the Tories and the BQ are dead in the water throughout Quebec. Easy NDP hold.
15 08 21 Balon
Three recent polls - CROP in Quebec, a national Abacus poll, and a Quebec-heavy Leger poll - all have the NDP at 40+ % in the province and the CPC and Bloc in the mid-teens. The CROP poll in particular has the NDP at 45% in the Quebec City region while the CPC are at 23%, LPC at 18% and Bloc at 13%. Kinda looking like a second Orange Crush.
While I assume Lebel and Bernier will win their seats for the Conservatives, with numbers like these, there is almost no chance the other ridings in this area will vote anything but NDP.
15 08 12 Dr Bear
NDP are holding their own in Francophone Quebec and the BQ are still down relative to 2011. That would suggest an NDP hold unless either the CPC or the BQ can get the lead out.
15 08 05 2015
The Conservatives are going to struggle to even get what the Arthur-Con alliance got last time. I can see the Liberals gaining some of those votes too, and the Bloc is polling below 2011 levels, meaning a solid NDP victory by 10% or so.
15 04 07 Observer
This riding should go Tory with their numbers like this, and if a strong candidate is recruited, that should seal the deal. I have heard that Arthur may run again, this time under the Tory banner, and lets not forget that even in 2000 & 2004, Howard Bruce fared decently for the CA and then Tories in that riding, one of the strongest showings at that time.
15 03 28 monkey
I would give the NDP an edge at the moment, but much like Quebec City this generally favourable turf for the Conservatives so if they pick up seats in Quebec, this would be one of the first to fall. Lets remember Andre Arthur generally voted with the Conservatives on most issues so I suspect most of his votes will migrate to the Conservatives this time around. The question is will it be enough or not for them to pick it up.
15 03 25 JFBreton
Trop tôt pour prédire un gagnant ici. Ce sera assurément une lutte entre les conservateurs et les néo-démocrates. Drôle de circonscription. La MRC de la Jacques-Cartier pourrait bénéficier de l'effet d'entraînement de Deltell s'il se présente dans Louis-St-Laurent, la circonscription voisine. Mais la MRC de Portneuf est difficile à évaluer. Tout dépendra aussi de la valeur du candidat conservateur et du maintien de l'appui actuel dans les sondages.

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