Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-03-17 23:42:12

Constituency Profile


Ackad, Alain

Deschamps, Fernand

Dion, Stéphane

Dumas-Dubreuil, Pascal-Olivier

Tromp, John

Yu, Jimmy

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 1400.43%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (162/162 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Stéphane Dion


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15 09 23 R.O.
It surprises me Stephane Dion is still around Ottawa as its been a few years now since he was liberal leader . its hard now to believe he even was liberal leader at some point in time . he has been mp for this riding for a number of years now. The ndp did better here in 2011 than ever before but not sure if this is an ndp target or not this year.
15 09 17 Wasyl
Red since Confederation. Libs could run a dog in St.Laurent and win.
15 09 02 Tony
Liberal hold, Dion's a top minister if the Liberals become government.
15 08 14 Marco Ricci
I agree that the NDP does not seem to be very interested in competing in this riding.
The NDP is expected to finally pick a candidate here next week. The candidate is expected to be Alain Ackad, who was the NDP candidate in Lac St. Louis in 2011. He finished 2nd to Liberal MP Francis Scarpaleggia, but ahead of Senator Larry Smith.
This is probably the most solid Liberal riding in Québec for now.
15 06 28 A.S.
While the NPD huffs and puffs about 'taking down Justin', they seem to be leaving well enough alone re the earlier failed Liberal leader several ridings to the west--and why not; at this point, Stephane Dion's too sad-sack yesterday's-news to be anything other than inoffensive, so leave the poor bugger alone, I suppose. (Besides, for the geeks out there, the bigger under-radar story with Saint-Laurent in 2011 was the intense if ultra-isolated pockets of 'Jewish HarperCon' support. In which case, imagine if Harper had the gall to gerrymander a stringy 'NC-12' type of seat extending from Hampstead through to Dollard...)
15 03 28 monkey
Stephane Dion may have done poorly in 2008 when he was national leader, but he has never had any issues winning here and as a strong cabinet minister in the Chretien government, I am pretty sure he will get a cabinet post if Trudeau wins. Regardless of what people may think of him, he should easily hold this riding.
15 03 26 Marco Ricci
Stéphane Dion will probably be elected comfortably again. In 2011 he fell below 50% because of the Layton Wave. Can he get back to the 60% that he won in 2008 when he was leader? The NDP are his only competition and they haven't found a candidate yet. The NDP don't seem to be making much of an effort here at this time.
15 03 25 B.W.
Despite his short and turbulent time as leader of the Liberal Party, Stephane Dion remains personally popular in Saint-Laurent. This riding will stay Liberal.
15 03 17 JFBreton
Château-fort libéral qui a facilement résisté à la vague orange de 2011. Stéphane Dion sera réélu facilement.

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