Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-03-21 12:41:17

Constituency Profile


Audette, Michèle

Borg, Charmaine

Boudrias, Michel

Moen, Susan

Sénat, Louis Clément

Surprenant, Michel

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (89/192 polls, 50.10% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Manon Perreault

   (103/192 polls, 49.90% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Charmaine Borg


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15 09 20 A.S.
Terrebonne's always gone nuclear for whatever partisan 450-federal-flavour-of-the-day: the Libs up to '84; the Cons up to '93; the Bloc up to '11; and now Borg, who through performance and McGill Five-eyness might be the refreshingly least wallpaper-like seatholder Terrebonne has ever seen. Unless the *last* 'NDP seatholder' hereabouts counts--1984 Mulroney Tory Robert Toupin, who sat briefly for the Dippers before running unsuccessfully as an independent in 1988. (And, really; he *doesn't* count.)
15 06 09 Observer
Selon La Presse, on a des nouvelles ce matin que Gilles Duceppe sera de retour comme chef Bloquiste. Mario Beaulieu s'est rendu compte que sous son direction, le Bloc Quebecois va nulle-part et risquait d'etre éffacé du carte électorale, donc, on a arrivé a une enetente qu reverra M. Duceppe a son ancien position.
Est ce que ca changera beaucoup? Avant d'accepter, l'équipe de M. Duceppe a prs une sondage, et a découvert que Le Bloc attirera 3 fois des voix sur son directon qu'a celle de M. Beaulieu. Sans doute Il pourrait attirer de l'argent et des candidates, possiblement des vedettes de son anien équipe.
Alors je crois que le Bloc poura faire in impacte non-negligible cette élection, en reprendre des sieges en Monterégie, Laurentides, Lanaudiere, Gaspésie, Mauricie, Lac St Jean et en quelques circonscriptions en Estrie.
Restez branchés.
According to La Presse, there is news today that Gilles Duceppe will be returning to the leadership of the Bloc Quebecois. Mario Beaulieu had come to terms with the fact that the party was going nowhere fast under his leadership, perhaps even looking a a complete wipeout, so they arrived at a deal that would see M. Duceppe return to his old job.
Will that change much? Before accepting, Duceppe's team commissioned a poll and found that the Bloc would attract 3 times as many votes under Duceppe than they would under M. Beaulieu. No doubt he will also bring in some much needed money, and some candidates, perhaps many from his old caucus.
Therefore I believe the Bloc could pose a threat to win seats in Montéregie, Laurentides, Lanaudiere, Gaspésie, Maurice. Lac St Jean and some ridings in the Eastern Townships.
Stay tuned
15 03 28 monkey
A fairly nationalist riding so should probably go NDP, but I am holding off calling as Quebecers are known for switching on a moment's notice.
15 03 21 Dr. Bear
The NDP invaded Quebec and the Bloc fell back. They won over whole ridings, and the Bloc fell back. They said 'This far! No further!' but resistance was futile. Charmaine Borg assimilated this riding into the NDP collective and it doesn't seem to be shaking free. Bad Star Trek puns aside, the NDP are holding their own on the north shore (unlike on the south shore). Though she'll actually have to raise and spend money for re-election (the wikipedia page for this riding says that Borg spent no money in the 2011 election!), I think Ms Borg will be re-elected.
15 03 21 Brian A
If the Bloc had any traction, this riding would be TCTC. But they don't, so it's not. Trudeau's halo doesn't extend this far north of Montreal, and Charmaine has done some amazing work since getting elected. I call this seat as a hold for one of Mulcair's brightest young disciples.

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Canada Federal Election - 2015
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