Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill

Prediction Changed
2015-10-18 00:38:06

Constituency Profile


Alleslev, Leona

Bowles, Kyle

Menegakis, Costas

Power, Brenda

Ramdeen, Randi

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 4721.20%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Oak Ridges-Markham
   (90/177 polls, 52.73% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Paul Calandra

   Richmond Hill
   (40/177 polls, 23.95% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Costas Menegakis

   (47/177 polls, 23.32% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Lois Brown


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15 10 15 Spx
Moving this one now in the safer Liberal gain colomn. It will be tighter in next door Newmarket-Aurora. Final call for me here, Liberal gain.
15 10 13 JC
At 43 percent in Ontario the Liberals are going to win this.
15 10 04 Dr. Bear
TCTC is a correct call for the moment, as current Liberal numbers are such that they would win this riding in a close race. Certainly watching this race.
15 09 08 R.O.
Too close to call isn't unreasonable considering this is a new riding and has not existed in its current boundaries before. This part of York region is also often a swing area between tories and liberals over the years. But there is still a conservative incumbent here as Costas Menegakis is running for re-election. And liberals and ndp both have new candidates new to federal politics. The 2011 numbers for the redistributed riding also favour the cpc by a comfortable margin. However this is a different election and likely to be closer , I'd say cpc still has somewhat of an advantage here.
15 09 06 Monkey Cheese
The Liberals have been polling quite well in Ontario this past week at the expense of both the NDP and Conservatives. As of today (September 6), 308 is actually giving them a 61% chance of winning here. This means that this shouldn't be considered a safe Conservative seat, especially if we see this trend continuing. It's too early to call it for any party at the moment, so I think EPP would be better off changing this one to TCTC.
15 08 17 A.S.
Since the Magna compound's at the northern edge, I'm not sure whether it's here that Belinda Stronach would run were she still a factor--if one takes 2011 as more blip than belwether for the Cons, I'd deem the 'natural condition' here to be more of a Con-Lib draw (keeping in mind that the Aurora part did swing Liberal provincially in 2014). All the same, it's understandable why Costas M. would shift northward--even the remaining parts of his former seat were more Tory-friendly than the norm there. There's still 'intersticial seat' uncertainty out there; but it's a heck of a lot more manageable and plausible an intersticial seat than Oak Ridges-Markham could ever hope to be.
15 07 31 Woodworth
This is a pretty safe seat for the Conservatives, explaining why Costas switched to this over RH. With the Liberal drop in Ontario this is a Conservative hold.
15 07 23 Prime Predictor
Menegakis is a strong campaigner, while the Liberal candidate is not very well know. It might be tight in the Richmond Hill part of the riding, but Aurora and Oak-Ridges are much more Conservative. CPC hold.
15 03 28 monkey
While I am not quite ready to call this, it likes like Costa chose the easier riding of the two to win and thus unless the Liberals open up a sizeable lead in Ontario, I suspect the Tories will hold this, although it will probably be a lot closer than last time around.

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