Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2009-10-16 12:56:00

Constituency Profile


Baxter, Dorian

Bidarian, Kassandra

Brown, Lois

Long, Vanessa

Mackie, Yvonne

Peterson, Kyle

Lois Brown

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • vaughan-king-aurora (63/215 Polls)
  • york-north (102/220 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 04 24 Dave Hodson
    Sorry Terry, but to suggest the Liberals even have a chance of taking back Newmarket-Aurora is simply not realistic.
    While I support the CPC, I've studied the historical results of this riding, poll-by-poll, in great detail in an unbiased fashion. The facts suggest that this riding votes Conservative by 7% more than the Ontario average, in the absence of a 'star candidate'. Liberal support traditionally falls close to the Ontario average Liberal support level, with the NDP under-represented.
    There is no star candidate running for the Liberals in 2011. Kyle might be a good guy, but he doesn't have Belinda's name (who really only moved the vote by 5% with her 'star factor' in each of the 2 times she ran), and last election the Liberals ran a former Aurora mayor who couldn't move support beyond the 7% support differential I referred to earlier.
    Depending on which poll you go by, the Conservatives are leading the Liberals in Ontario by anywhere from 6% to 12%, which suggests that Lois Brown will take this riding easily by a fair margin. The Liberals would have to be clearly leading the Conservatives in Ontario overall to give Kyle Peterson a chance in Newmarket-Aurora. A lot can happen with a week to go, but we would need to see a very large CPC collapse or a Liberal surge in Ontario for Kyle to pull off an upset here.
    11 04 22 Terry
    The riding was red before it split and became a new riding in 2004 called Newmarket-Aurora. That year it went Conservative but only barely and primarily because of a strong local candidate in Belinda Stronach. When she crossed the floor to become a Liberal, she won even more handily in 2006 despite an uptick in Conservative support nation-wide that led to the forming of a Conservative government. In 2008, when Stronach left politics, the riding went Conservative once more, largely as a result of a huge number of Liberal voters who stayed home, feeling dissatisfied with the leadership of Stephane Dion.
    With the strong possibility of a Conservative majority, those voters will not sit out this election. Additionally, there is a brand new Liberal candidate in Kyle Peterson who seems to be truly connecting with voters, the evidence being the praise given to him online for being an accessible candidate and on lawns across the riding that increasingly have Liberal signs on them. Add in to the mix that the NDP candidate has hardly run a campaign and votes will likely bleed to Peterson. Additionally, as Peterson has pointed out, the Conservative incumbent has an identical voting record in the House to that of her leader, Prime Minister Harper and as a result stands for everything he does. Newmarket-Aurora is a riding with a history of supporting Liberals and Ms. Brown's voting record may leave a bad taste in the mouths of voters when they go to the ballot box.
    I would call this a close race but being a fresh face in a time where voters are tiring of the same old politicians, Peterson clearly has momentum and will likely upset Brown.
    11 04 18 The Jackal
    I have to agree with Dr Bear and Prof Ape on this one as it is not a question if Lois Brown Will win but by how much. The Liberals may have a chance if Belinda Stronach came out of retirement then again with the Magna shutdowns in the last few years perhaps not.
    11 04 16 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Okay two years ago we said this riding should be interesting. Well we were wrong and it's not all that interesting after all. Not so much because of the candidtes but because of how the Liberals and CPC are polling. CPC are the same in Ontario as in '08 while the Liberals are up. Never the less, the Liberals would have to be a fair amount ahead of the CPC in Ontario to win this. It'll be closer but the CPC will hold this one.
    11 04 16 M. Lunn
    The Tories won by double digits last time around so the Liberals would need a fairly solid lead in Ontario to win here and the fact their best polls show them ahead but within in the margin of error suggests a Liberal win here just isn't that likely this late in the game. The best case scenario for the Liberals would be to finish five points back, but still not enough to win here.
    11 04 02 M. Lunn
    As an outerlying suburb of the GTA, this will probably stay Conservative unless the Liberals can pull ahead by at least 5% in Ontario. Due to how early it is in the campaign, I am reluctant to make a prediction, but if the Liberals don't make significant gains by April 17th (five days after the English debates) I will call this for the Tories.
    11 03 28 C.A.B.
    If the last few elections have proven anything, it's that this riding really liked either Paul Martin or Belinda Stronach - maybe both of them. And once they were both gone, Lois Brown won quite comfortably, by over ten points. That's a large enough margin that I'm willing to call this seat for the Tories, especially since the Liberals have far more obvious targets elsewhere in York Region.
    09 12 26 A.S.
    Didn't Margaret Black withdraw her candidacy? Well, anyway, I'd still consider Newmarket-Aurora tokenly too close*ish* to call--though maybe because it seems rather colourless to judge post-Belinda. Maybe not to the point of Lois Brown being a CPC Judi Longfield, but...
    09 10 11 Dave Hodson
    No way should this riding still be listed as 'too close to call'. Unless we see some severe shifts in the polling trends, this riding will be an easy reelection for Lois Brown.
    The Liberals are not running a star candidate. In fact, their candidate is not even from the riding. Given the lack of any star candidate, and the trend for the Conservatives to score about 7% better in Newmarket-Aurora than their Ontario average level of support, Lois should win by a substantial margin.
    09 08 25 wyatt
    Brown will hold this one. She gained votes from her effort in '06, despite a drop in turnout. The riding naturally is inclined to vote Conservative, doing so in '04, and is represented at the provincial level by leadership contender Frank Klees.
    09 08 24 R.O.
    Its been just about a year since Lois Brown actually won the riding as a conservative after several previous attempts did not work out and i'd say things have gone fairly well for her now that she is the mp for Newmarket Aurora. she is not that high profile in Ottawa but visible in the local media from what i have seen come out of this riding and had a good first year as mp i would say. the liberals on the other hand have had to find a new candidate after previous one Tim Jones decided to not take another run at the nomination and instead yet Margaret Black have it. She is a local mayor of king towhship but that town is not actually part of the riding of Newmarket Aurora and instead part of Oak Ridges-Markham riding so that be an interesting factor to consider here. either way i doubt the Belinda less liberals will be able to take this one back at this time as i think Lois Browns had a good first year here.
    09 08 22 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Lois Brown has always been competitive, even when up against Belinda. No Belinda now. So it would seem that the CPC should keep it and we would call it for the CPC if compelled to. However we're going to call this TCTC for now since this is a very fickle riding and a good Liberal candidate could take it. Not to mention the approximately 4,500 2006 Liberal voters who were unaccounted for in 2008. Should be interesting!

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