Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Bay of Quinte

Prediction Changed
2015-10-18 00:38:13

Constituency Profile


Cassidy, Terry

Ellis, Neil

Jenkins, Jodie

Nelems, Rachel

Tuck, Trueman

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 2650.53%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Prince Edward-Hastings
   (138/220 polls, 60.60% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Daryl Kramp

   Northumberland-Quinte West
   (82/220 polls, 39.40% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Rick Norlock


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15 10 18 Rjr
This riding as when Ag minister Lyle Vanclief was around will easily go Liberal. The tide has turned and will carry Ellis to victory leaving Jenkins sitting by the dock in the Bay of Quinte, Cassidy is up the creek.
15 10 15 Monkey Cheese
Ready to call this one Liberal now. As of today (October 15), 308 is calling for Bay of Quinte to go Liberal with a 56% chance. They are surging in the polls at the expense of the Conservatives in Ontario and they have the former mayor of Bellville as their candidate. The Conservative campaign manager's racist rants, which the Conservatives didn't condemn, will also hurt them here. This should be a small Liberal gain.
15 10 10 Spx
With the latest drop for the Conservatives in Ontario I think Bay of Quinte would also be in line to follow the Peterborough ridings into the Liberal column. Even though I am leaning more towards TCTC, with only one week left I will make the call for the Liberals.
15 10 04 Craig Hubley
'Sue MacDonell, a board member for the Conservatives' Bay of Quinte Electoral District Association, was fired after she posted on Facebook that a Cree woman recently crowned Mrs. Universe was a monster and a 'smug entitled Liberal pet.'' Well, we know she was only fired for being caught.
The question is, will this kind of blatant racist attack by vicious white trash (or as they are now called by their own, 'Old Stock' Canadians...) anger enough NDP and Green voters to take out the candidate she nominated?
I would not discount the revulsion factor especially as Conservatives have doubled up on racism and race hate in these last weeks of the campaign. In cases like this where regional polls show the NDP way behind and the Greens with no chance, I could see a strong hold-your-nose vote for Libs.
Followed by a visit by Mrs. Universe to the riding. A sort of victory tour.
15 09 09 Observer
Tony, did it ever occur to you that Jodie Jenkins and Terry Cassidy are ALSO both making the move from municipal to federal politics?
Ellis may have been mayor but there are some of us who wouldn't vote for him no matter whose banner he ran under. All he did as mayor was raise our taxes and fees for 8 years running. Belleville taxes are among the worst in the province.
That being said, Ellis will win the Belleville polls handily. Liberals always do. (except in 2011). I was driving around in Quinte West yesterday, and the County last week, and there can be no doubt that the Tories will dominate in those two sections.
If lawn signs are any guage, ellis is 2-1 over Jodie in Belleville, and 10-1 over Cassidy, Jenkins signs dominate in QW and the county.
Ellis only wins in the case of a recurrence of Trudeaumania, or if the wheels completely fall off the Tory bus. Both of which are within the realm of possibility.
I still say narrow Tory win (5% points)
15 09 09 Monkey Cheese
This is a very tough riding to call as there is no incumbent advantage. However, the Conservatives have found themselves in another recent controversy as their riding association director for Bay of Qunite was fired after her racist posts that criticized refugees, First Nations, and African-Americans. Things like that do not look good on the Conservative candidate for this riding who hopefully has the common sense to denounce these remarks. The Liberals do have a good candidate with the Belleville mayor, but this is also a rural area and rural areas tend to vote Conservative in droves. I'm leaning to this one being TCTC until we get a riding poll for this specific riding, but if the Conservatives keep on taking in the polls with gaffes like these, then the Liberals should be able to win.
15 09 08 Tony Ducey
The Liberals and Neil Ellis will win here as he moves from municipal to federal politics.
15 08 29 Neal Ford
I live in Bay of Quinte, and this is a two horse race . Despite wishful thinking on the NDP's part, it will ether be Jodie Jenkins (C) or former Belleville Mayor Neil Ellis (L) who will be going to Ottawa.
The only thing that could change that is that something happens to make it an orange wave election.
I will concede that had the Liberals not found such a high profile candidate that the NDP might have finished second again, but not under these circumstances. BTW, Jenkins and Eliis are everywhere, while Cassidy of the NDP is (so far) almost invisible.
I think Ellis will poll best in Belleville, but Jodie will overcome in the County and Quinte West.
I predict a NARROW Tory win here.
15 08 25 John Knox
Not sure how this will go.
But Jodie is the son in law of Don Simmonds who has an ear to the Prime Minister I suggest Jodie was asked to Run by Don and would think that there was some sort of deal made there
15 08 27 Monkey Cheese
I think that this riding should now be moved to TCTC. Latest Forum Research poll has the Tories at 23% nationally and at 26% in Ontario, behind the Liberals and NDP. This means ridings like Bay of Quinte should no longer be considered safe seats for them. 308 also updated their projections on August 27, which only gives the Tories 58% of winning here. The Liberals and NDP are also very competitive here and any of the three has a realistic shot at winning. Conservative advantage, but TCTC at this point.
15 08 23 farmer
this is a swing riding and will go with the national trend, almost always does.
Many of the old conservatives here are not happy with their leader or their candidate and will vote ndp if they vote at all. Libs will place third here as they did last time, not even in this race.
15 08 18 jeff316
Oh what a gift! A die-hard small-and-big-C conservative riding selects a former gadfly golfpro NDP councillor as its candidate. Is something up? Do local Conservatives know something we don't? Could they not do better? And, to boot, both the NDP and Liberals are running real, locally-known candidates this time around. The Liberals will sneak this.
15 08 17 Craig Hubley
308 gives the Cons only 67% chance to win and only a 7 point lead over the still-rising NDP. Given a good NDP candidate, that's a surmountable lead. A slightly stronger than average Green vote (5.6%) is the most easily shifted, as a third to a half of the Green support shifts on election day.
15 08 08 Follow The Numbers
On paper and by the polls this looks like an easy Conservative hold. Yet Harper went out of his way to visit this riding yesterday (August 7). It strikes me as odd that he would visit an out of the way, safe Conservative riding. The Liberals were smart to nominate the former mayor of Belleville and as a result they will poll well in Belleville and Trenton while the Conservatives will dominate the more rural areas of the riding. For now this is a Conservative hold, but if they fall in the polls I can easily see this going to the Liberals. I'll revisit this one closer to election day.
15 07 30 A.S.
For the record, and especially in our 3-way/Mulcair-leading era, it's worth noting that the NDP *also* has a candidate with 'profile', former Quinte West councillor Terry Cassidy--though his distant-second 2014 mayoral bid also alludes to the grasping-at-straws issue that's plagued (at least in fallow years) NDP 'star candidates' through time. So, things shouldn't be ruled out from any of three directions--even Trenton, despite the CFB/Highway Of Heroes factor, isn't as 'Conservative' as it appears; Forces can be as overrated as university students in swaying (not least rightward) elections. And re the rural stuff swaying things: right now, we're dealing with a rather surprisingly 'urbanesque' riding, whether that means the dominance of Belleville/Trenton or the Toronto-expatriate gentrification of PEC, and that doesn't exactly play into CPC hands, either. So, compounded by the odd political background of Jodie Jenkins, things are looking far more interesting in Quinte than the 2011 figure indicates.
15 07 05 NonPartisan
This riding is primarily based around Belleville. The Liberals are running the former Mayor of the city while the Conservatives are running a city councillor. While both are high profile candidates, this seat is solidly CPC and will give it to them.
15 04 05 D.M.
This maybe a riding worth revisiting in prediction terms if the Conservatives really start to tank or the Liberals rebound.(Most of the Liberal polling gains in Ontario are surges in Toronto and Ottawa)
As it stands even with potential vote gains in Belleville, this riding has many rural areas which will boost the CPC vote enough that they should hold.
Not a CPC lock but surely a heavy lean in their direction.
15 04 05 Stevo
Redistribution has made this new riding competitive, with Belleville liable to swing heavily Liberal (or even NDP) if the winds blow in that direction. Prince Edward County is perhaps less 'swingy' but certainly more so than the rural areas north of Belleville that are now in a different riding. Toss-up at this point.
15 03 28 monkey
While the Liberals should make this more competitive, lets remember this is still close to 50% rural so although Belleville could go either way, the Tories should finish ahead in Prince Edward county as well as Quinte West. Contrary to the other poster Trenton, is quite solidly Tory as its a military town so although the Tories' cuts to vets may hurt them, I am not sure the Liberals will take this. Liberal support in Northumerland-Quinte West tends to be more in the Western part near Port Hope and Cobourg not the Eastern part which this riding picks up.
15 03 28 Observer
Jason, Don't be so sure that Ellis' former mayor status will get him elected. There were a lot of us who were very glad to see him go. Taxes went up under his watch. I wouldn't vote for him even if he was running for the Tories.
The bigger picture though is the national campaign, and I have talked to a lot of people here in Belleville, many of whom usually vote Liberal and the general thinking is that 'the young pup' Trudeau is definitely NOT ready for prime time, and may never be. Harsh, I know, but I've heard that.
15 03 25 Jason
Liberal pick up.
The Liberals traditionally perform strong in Belleville, Brighton and Trenton. The Tories will perform stronger in rural areas.
The Liberals have nominated Neil Ellis who served as Belleville mayor from 2006-2014. He is well liked in Belleville and increasing his organization in other parts of the riding such as Trenton.
The Tories surprisingly nominated a former two time provincial NDP candidate Jodie Jenkins. His presence in the riding is weak.
15 03 25 Observer
It's certainly shaping up to be a battle of the titans here in Bay of Quinte. Neil Ellis probably thought he had a slam dunk going on a few months ago riding in as a high profile name (a former Mayor) on Justin Trudeau's coattails.
The more likely outcome is a truly close race. Jodie Jenkins has, over many years built up his share of name recognition too, as a provincial NDP candidate, and as a city councillor.
Both have their natural constituencies, both have their records with all the pros and cons that go along with it.
Both are from \Belleville, but the battle goes way beyond the southern part of the friendly city. On a partisan basis the Liberals have always been strong in Belleville proper (with the exception of the last two elections, but the Tories should do well in the County, and in Trenton, where the base, the areas largest employer has fared well under the Tories.
I will also add that Jodie has been out on the hustings knocking doors and attending meetings everywhere since the day he won the nomination.
My bet is on a narrow Tory win, with the NDP lagging way back.
15 03 24 JC
This is an unusual seat the Conservatives have nominated a guy who ran in two provincial elections for the NDP and served on Belleville's city council, but the Liberals have nominated the Mayor Neil Ellis, they may have a shot here at winning.

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