Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Brampton East

Prediction Changed
2015-10-18 00:17:06

Constituency Profile


Bajaj, Naval

Grewal, Raj

Kahlon, Harbaljit Singh

Lacroix, Kyle

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 1480.52%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (109/123 polls, 89.20% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Bal Gosal

   (12/123 polls, 10.80% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Parm Gill


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15 10 09 Jason
Surprisingly, riding polls are showing this a close race between the Liberals and Conservatives. That does not make sense when this is the weakest region for the Conservatives in the 905. It also does not make sense when the same companies are publishing polls showing the Liberals leading nationally, in Ontario and in upper middle class 905 ridings such as Mississauga Lakeshore and Markham Stouffville.
Even if the Conservatives win 150 seats, I highly doubt they will win Brampton East.
15 10 03 Jeff S
Mainstreet poll shows LPC and CPC tied with NDP 10 points back.
15 10 04 DSR
Mainstreet Research poll (15/9/29) Lib 36%, Con 35%, NDP 24%, Green 5%.
15 10 02 Dr. Bear
George's comments only make sense if the CPC were polling higher than they did in 2011. They are not. If this riding existed in 2011, it would have gone NDP with the Liberals second. I'm not comfortable calling it for either team red or team orange but certainly team blue is far behind in this one.
15 09 24 tk
Just watched Harb & Raj debate last night on Omni. Harb seems to think that increasing taxes results in an increase in Investment (stimulating the economy). Don't know where he learned that, but he doesn't seem to know what he is talking about. And Raj immediately called him out on it. I am switching my vote!
15 09 17 George
At the moment, strong NDP polling favours a CPC victory here.
This is a seat where a strong NDP only hurts the Liberals, and secures a Tory win.
15 09 09 Anonymous
This an important and strategic riding for both the Liberals and NDP that requires a strong candidate to win. The NDP candidate from Oakville is virtually unknown in Brampton East and is at a severe disadvantage by not having any connection to the riding. Resume also does not have any positives other than his affiliation with Jagmeet Singh, which looks like the only basis on which the candidate is running. This is a risky proposition that is overestimating Jagmeet's influence given that his brother, Gurratan Singh, recently ran for Brampton Regional Council (obviously with Jagmeet's active endorsement) and lost. Shows that a lot more is needed to win here. Liberal candidate, Raj, is a popular and well-liked politician. As a Bay street lawyer, he is articulate and can appeal to a greater range of people and is qualified to deal with a diverse range of issues. Think more people will trust him based on that. Although Raj clearly stands out as the superior candidate, it is a tough riding to predict since voting will reflect overall federal sentiment.
15 09 07 Poll predictor
Raj Grewal has really been working this riding for the last year. The latest poll puts him in the lead and the Liberals in the lead and surging a bit in Ontario at the expense of both the Conservatives and the NDP somewhat. I'm predicting a possible sweep of the Brampton ridings by the Liberals. But there is still a ways to go in the campaign.
15 09 08 Kyle H
I used to live here before all the development swallowed up my area, in what was rural farmland just on the leading edge of Castlemore - man has it ever changed!
At any rate, I don't think this is the NDP lock people believe it to be. Though Jagmeet's strong presence provincially and a much better NDP organization among the community groups in the area certainly put it at play in ways never seen before, remember that all three times, the Liberals weren't wiped out or forgotten. There is a strong base for the Liberals to build off of here, and a weaker candidate for the NDP might just be enough to take away any notional advantage they had - this should at least be TCTC I feel.
15 09 05 Marco Ricci
With NDP support down in Ontario, & Liberal support up, it is possible that the Liberals could win this riding.
Now a 50% chance of going Liberal (308 Prediction - September 4, 2015)
15 08 16 Swellow
The Tory and Liberal leaning parts of this riding have been cut off, with the NDP up, this will be orange.
15 08 16 A.S.
When it comes to Jagmeet Singh-era Bramalea-Gore-Malton, the general relative-strength pecking order has gone: Bramalea Blue, Gore Orange, Malton Red--and naturally, the present-day Brampton East is pretty much all Gore; thus the notional NDP advantage and logical supertarget. Doesn't hurt that the add-on polls from Springdale themselves went provincially NDP on Jagmeet's ethnoburban coattails last year; thus for projection purposes together with population-growth acknowledgment, maybe the notional NDP figure we're working with ought to be pushed past *40%*. I still won't offer anything, since the jury's *still* out on how inch-deep Jagmeetmania really is, particularly given how the Libs seem out to expend extra effort in repatriating urban Peel Region--but hey; when we're dealing with 2011's boldest non-Quebec NDP expression of 'they said it couldn't be done' (together with its eastern GTA pendant, Rathika in outer Scarberia), the impulse to exercise caution is all too understandable.
15 07 12 SikhActivist
The NDP have are running star candidate Harb Kahlon. Young Sikhs are excited about his candidacy and are convincing their parents to vote NDP. With Harb on the federal level and Jagmeet on the provincial level, bright things are ahead for the NDP in Peel Region.
15 07 07 SS
NDP candidate, Harb Kahlon, is being parachuted in the riding. Apparently has never lived in Brampton and currently a resident of Oakville. The candidate does not have any significant professional or political experience, particularly when compared to the Liberal candidate who brings considerable expertise and profile to the job and campaigning on his strong roots in the community. Seems NDP were unable to fill the big gap in this riding, which the Liberals will benefit from greatly.
15 07 05 NonPartisan
This is one of the few seats in suburban Toronto the NDP can gain traction in. The CPC incumbent jumped to another riding and the provincial portion of the seat is represented by the NDP. A good NDP candidate will take the riding.
15 06 30 hs
Huge news the NDP have got their star candidate in Harb (Ruby) Kahlon. He was the driving force behind the Jagmeet Singh campaign and there are reportedly dozens of community groups behind him. Has been an active community volunteer for years and has a huge name recognition in the riding. Things just got interesting.
15 06 06 Kate
This is a naturally Liberal riding and being led by a very high caliber candidate. Four months to the election and the NDP has failed to produce a suitable candidate and there doesn't appear to be any prospect that has the exposure in the community, qualifications and background of the Liberal candidate. Raj is very visible in Brampton East and NDP will find it very tough to make inroads (if any).
15 05 05 R.O.
I was surprised to see the ndp would have won this riding had it existed in 2011. as Brampton has never elected a federal ndp mp to my knowledge , it did however elect one at provincial level in recent years that being Jagmeet Singh . but the area has changed a lot and if a party is able to win over those new voters it be possible to elect a candidate from another party . without an incumbent or any high profile candidates very tough area to predict so too close for time being .
15 04 30 Gillian
NDP would have easily taken this in 2011 if the new boundaries existed at the time. Despite popular MPP Jagmeet Singh not running, the growth of the NDP in Brampton and within the Sikh community in Ontario will ensure this riding goes NDP.
15 04 23 Jason
Liberal gain now that Jagmeet Singh clarified that he is not running here federally.
The Conservatives have no shot at this riding and will likely end up third here. They will focus their resources on the other four Brampton ridings.
15 04 20 Marco Ricci
NDP MPP Jagmeet Singh announced today that he will NOT be running for the Federal NDP. He was appointed Deputy Leader by Andrea Horwath.
15 04 08
The current Liberal candidate in Brampton East (Raj Grewal) is a lawyer out of Osgoode and has an MBA from Schulich. He is currently a lawyer on Bay Street with deep roots in the riding. I can assure you that he will be a formidable opponent in this riding.
15 03 30 JC
Jagmeet Singh is at least to my knowledge not even running in this riding. The NDP vote in this riding was primarily for him and if he were to run yes, I could see him winning this riding. But this is a Liberal riding otherwise.
15 03 28 monkey
Has a large Sikh population so will depend a lot on the candidate and how well the Liberals and NDP do amongst them. Of the five Brampton ridings, this is the one I can say with pretty much certainty the Tories won't win. The good news for them though is the other four Brampton ridings will be a little easier to hold than had the old boundaries been used.
15 03 27 Jason
@ Marco
I base my speculation on Jagmeet Singh with Adam Radwanski's Globe article.
15 03 26 Marco Ricci
I haven't heard that NDP MPP Jagmeet Singh is thinking of running federally. There is, however, an NDP candidate named Singh who has been nominated in Brampton North. And if MPP Jagmeet Singh switched to running federally, he would not be guaranteed a win. He did reasonably well in 2011, but there's no guarantee that Mulcair will get the type of wave in the GTA that Layton got. It probably makes more sense for Jagmeet Singh to remain in the Horwath caucus where his position is more secure. But we will see what develops.
15 03 19 Jason
There are some reports that Bramalea-Gore-Malton MPP Jagmeet Singh is thinking of running federally. If Singh runs, the NDP wins this. If Singh does not run, the Liberals should be able to pick this up.
With riding redistribution, the Conservatives have no chance of winning this riding. They will likely end up third place in this riding (even if they win other Peel region ridings).

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