Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-09-23 10:11:29

Constituency Profile


Braniff, Michele

Couto, Manuel

Goodyear, Gary

May, Bryan

Sperduti, Lee

Stewart, Bobbi

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 1340.30%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (211/215 polls, 98.46% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Gary Goodyear

   (4/215 polls, 1.54% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Phil McColeman


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15 09 29 Monkey Cheese
LeadNow/Environics is about as credible as Mainstreet. The former likely underestimates Conservative support while the latter overestimates Conservative support. I do think Cambridge will be much closer this time around, but the Tories will probably hold it, but by no more than 5000 votes.
15 09 26 Jim G.
Cambridge is one of the battleground targets for the LeadNow campaign to unite the progressive vote. Liberal candidate Bryan May is a nine points shy of Gary Goodyear in a recent Environics September Poll. Progressives will swing to the Liberals to out Goodyear. http://www.votetogether.ca/riding/35016/cambridge/
15 08 30 A.S.
Right now, Goodyear's the archetypal 'hitherto so-called safe HarperCon minister begging for a NDP upset'--though given Bobbi Stewart's chequered electoral history (underperforming federally in Guelph '11, and provincially in Cambridge '14), one wonders whether as beneficiary, she'd be more 'active' or 'collateral'. But the fact that the PCs were unexpectedly upset *anyway* by the Wynne Liberals last year shows how certain easy conclusions of safety can be, as befits Goodyear's surname, overinflated...
15 08 23 MT
With the NDP polling well in this area and the scandal that is enveloping the Conservative party, it is going to be a close one in this riding. While the CPC may still pull it off, if the election signs around town are any indication so far the riding could swing NDP by the end of the election campaign. The main catalyst will be whether the CPC can recover in the next couple of months or if they get in over their head this time around. Based on the current situation, my guess is that we'll start seeing an increased shift in voter sentiment. The tide could turn orange in short order.
15 08 20 R.O.
Called prematurely ? but keep in mind Gary Goodyear year has been mp of this riding since 2004 and won by comfortable margins in past elections . the riding has been somewhat redistributed and in provincial election it did go liberal. The provincial pc's really never should of lost this riding but ran such a bad campaign it managed to slip away. . Its possible ndp or liberals might improve numbers in such a riding but I think overall Gary Goodyear has been an effective mp for this area and should be able to hold riding.
15 08 17 Craig Hubley
I think many Ontario ridings have been prematurely called Conservative. 308 gives Cons a 7 point lead and 65% chance to win, with NDP as the challenger. About 1/4 of the votes are tied up Liberal and Green but only about 1/4 of those have to shift NDP to make this race even money. When a race like this is physically proximal to several others that are going to shift against a Con incumbent, there's regional momentum to consider that can amplify provincial momentum. So this one isn't ready to call just yet.
15 07 23 Prime Predictor
NDP can keep dreaming. Goodyear holds this. Pretty Conservative city.
15 05 16 seasaw
This one should stay blue. I know it went Liberal provincially, but like I've mentioned before, federal and provincial elections are totally different animals. The reasons that the Liberals won provincially are: 1. Tim Hudak ( Harper's not Hudak ), 2.Rob Leone ( he was a weak MPP, Gary Goodyear's no Rob Leone ) and 3.Kathryn McGarry. This is one riding that has always elected CPC and barring a major Campbell style collapse, it should remain there.
15 03 29 Jason
Cambridge is not a Conservative stronghold, but it is a riding where the party benefits from vote splitting. In the past twenty years, the Tories only won the majority of votes in this riding twice - the 1999 provincial election and the 2011 federal election.
The Ontario Liberals surprisingly won this riding last June. Tim Hudak's awful campaign plus a strong local candidate turned the seat Red.
Of course, Harper is not Hudak and the federal Conservatives will definitely preform better in Ontario. Gary Goodyear is organized enough to hold this seat, albeit a smaller margin. This really isn't a target for either the Liberals and NDP. At least, not in this election cycle.
15 03 28 monkey
While I won't call this quite yet, it does normally tend to lean Tory although the loss of Hespeler which is quite socially conservative does hurt them a bit. Also the NDP usually because its a blue collar riding does well so while a Liberal pick up is possible, as long as the Tories remain competitive in Ontario, they should hold this. The Liberals best shots in this area are Kitchener Centre and Waterloo.
15 03 27 Dr Bear
Provincially this riding went with the Liberals. While I am doubtful that we'll see the same this election (barring some star candidate), I'm tentatively calling this TCTC.

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