Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-09-16 10:25:45

Constituency Profile


Omstead, Katie

Van Kesteren, Dave

Vercouteren, Mark

Walsh, Tony

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 40.01%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (234/252 polls, 94.37% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Dave Van Kesteren

   (14/252 polls, 4.83% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Jeff Watson

   (4/252 polls, 0.81% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Bev Shipley


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15 10 05 R.O.
The big question is why did mainstreet even decide to poll this riding and not another riding in Ontario as it hasn't got much attention. The poll indicated current mp Dave Van Kesteren still doing well here . there 45 % estimate of his support among decided voters is less than 2011 but close to what he got here in 2008 election . so it appears to be a riding where conservative support has held steady even as other ridings have got more competitive .
15 10 03 Jeff S
Warning sign for CPC. Mainstreet poll shows them leading, but with only 36%. Down from over 50 last time.
15 10 04 DSR
Mainstreet Research poll (15/9/29) Con 45%, Lib 27%, NDP 23%, Green 4%.
15 08 18 jeff316
'Uh, what???' - that's what pundits will say when they see the results. While their seat count underwhelmed, the provincial NDP scared the pants off the Conservatives from Sarnia through all the way to the Niagara-US border, and one of their best second places was Chatham. Add-in post industrial Leamington and a credible candidate and you have the surprise of the election. There are just enough votes (and enough Liberal antipathy) in Chatham and Leamington to overcome the Conservative heartland that is Kent.
15 08 17 Craig Hubley
308 calls it 41.5% Con to 33.3% NDP, with 1/4 of the vote tied up Green and Liberal for now. Only about a third of that (1/12 of the total) needs to shift NDP for that 69% Con chance to win to shift to basically even money.
If the NDP doesn't continue gaining and Liberals don't continue falling, or Greens show some weird sign of *NOT* half shifting to other parties on actual election day, with much of the other half at least offering to swap, a Harper rebound in September / October could make this an easy call. But at this point I don't like calling things with less than 75% Con chances according to 308, because that's the kind of thing that led EP to get 2011 only 75% right... whereas in 2008, 2006, 2004 it was like 90%.
15 08 16 Swellow
Considering the provincial NDP inroads in SW Ontario, I think this seat will fall orange. This was also a good riding for the provincial NDP back in 2014.
15 07 06 Dr. Bear
Southwestern Ontario is another sleeper region for the NDP and support for them has been growing steadily here. While I wouldn't call Chatham-Kent for anyone other than the CPC, I'm keeping a watch on NDP numbers. This could change if the trend continues.
15 06 21 A.S.
Even if CKL has the highest proportion of evangelical Xtians, keep in mind that the provincial NDP *did* claw its way up to 31% and give Nicholls a run for his money in 2014--in the end, it *is* more of a urban-rural blue collar/rust belt kind of seat, 'the economy, stupid', that sort of thing. (Indeed, in Leamington, the Heinz closure fueled the NDP to levels not seen even provincially in 1990.) For real evangelical impact on the electorate, a more fitting reference point is neighbouring LKM--fittingly enough, socon PC leadership contender Monte McNaughton's provincial seat (and where the CHP/FCP used to flirt with or cross 10% of the electorate).
15 04 26 Docere
The MPP for Chatham-Kent-Essex, Rick Nichols, isn't that out of touch with his constituents - this riding has the highest proportion of evangelical Christians in Ontario. The Conservatives will have no problem hanging here.
15 03 22 Dr. Bear
To win this riding, the Liberals would need either a strong candidate or a Conservative meltdown. The CPC is certainly not imploding and, with all due respect to Ms. Omstead, she is not a strong candidate. There may be some residual rust-belt support for the NDP but support for the dippers is way down province-wide. They're going to be too busy trying to hold orange-wave gains to try a Horwath-esque populist run at the SW. Conservative hold.

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Canada Federal Election - 2015
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