Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-10-18 00:17:38

Constituency Profile


Alderson, Jennifer

Festeryga, Audrey

Ramsey, Tracey

Villamizar, Enver

Watson, Jeff

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 730.15%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (229/229 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Jeff Watson


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15 10 16 Craig Hubley
It's a minor and likely un-noticed factor in this race but when endorsing vote swaps to favour Jo-Ann Roberts in Victoria (at expense of the NDP), Green Constantine Kritsonis did shout-out to Greens in Oshawa and here in Essex to similarly endorse vote swaps for the NDP here to get Greens Gord Miller in Guelph and Mary Lou Babineau in Fredericton over the top in each.
No sign yet of any NDP candidate emulating Kritsonis' move (read it here)
http://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/green-candidate-frees-voters-to-leverage-their-vote---by-voteswapping-532993181.html but any such move by Guelph or Fredericton NDP could swing Greens to NDP here and win this one. In Ontario, Green and NDP supporters are probably the only ones who can stop a Liberal majority. And it seems to do it they have to buddy up.
Projects like VoteTogether are really risking creating that false majority and wiping out NDP and Greens where they have a chance, even a small one, to stop it. That is not much of an electoral reform achievement, is it?
15 10 13 Spx
Essex, Essex, Essex ... still hard to predict, here is my two cents. I believe the NDP vote will stay pretty stable from last time and if the Liberals bleed enough votes away from the Conservatives, the NDP might actually come right through the middle. All in all I think this riding will be won by not more than 35-37% and at this point could be any of the three.
15 10 11 Dr. Bear
Okay...flip flop time...I've re-examined the numbers and it looks neck and neck between the CPC and NDP in this riding. NDP support is down in Ontario but they are polling on par with their 2011 results. If they hold their support in Essex they could take it. If the Conservatives slip further this week, Essex will go orange.
15 10 08 Jeff S
Environics has the race even. The TPP could cost the CPC the seat.
15 10 07 jeff316
NDP will get clobbered in Toronto but TPP might be enough to squeak this one out for them.
15 10 04 Dr. Bear
A resurgent Liberal machine in Ontario will enable Watson to hold this riding based on vote split. The NDP still have a god chance at taking this seat, they just need to focus.
15 09 15 Nick M.
The CPC are gonna lose 10-15 percent of the popular vote in Ontario this election. The NDP won this riding provincially by a handsome margin. The only way I can see the CPC winning this riding, is if the Liberals do well, and the CPC ride up the middle. I'm I missing something?
15 08 23 R.O.
This riding has been a frequent opposition target ever since Jeff Watson first got elected in 2004 . his main opponents were the liberals back then but seem to have shifted to ndp. The ndp candidate he beat in 2011 went on to get elected at provincial level , the provincial riding of essex stayed liberal for a while longer then went ndp recently. i'm not really sure how the new ndp candidate affects the race here. Jeff Watson has been elected 4 times in this riding although never by a margin that big. he seems to be an mp with some staying power though as he's managed to hold onto this competitive riding.
15 08 16 Swellow
The Tory here is one of the major spin doctors on Parliament Hill. Still will be interesting since the NDP are targeting.
15 08 14 Mark R
Watson is in big trouble here and the Liberals are once again a non-factor. The anti-CPC vote is solidly behind the NDP candidate. In speaking with family and friends in the area, it appears the large provincial win and credibility of the MPP are carrying over. NDP gain.
15 08 07 Follow The Numbers
The Conservatives are surprisingly having trouble in this riding, with Threehundredeight showing them just barely leading here. If they stumble any further in the polls, especially in Ontario, then they will more than likely lose Essex. I wouldn't count out a NDP gain.
15 07 29 Monkey Cheese
Polls are showing only a very narrow Conservative lead here. You know things are looking bad for them when a riding like Essex is in play. The Liberals likely have no chance in this riding and it is likely that many Liberal voters will switch over to the NDP to take out the Conservative incumbent.
15 07 26 A.S.
Worth noting re Jeff Watson's unforeseen win in 2004 (in a seat where the PCs lost their deposit in 1988!): it was something of a maiden coup for Nick Kouvalis's Dishonest John 'Dirty Deeds Done Dirt Cheap' school of Conservative strategizing. And for all the messiness within the local CPC camp (including death-threat charges against Kouvalis!), the broader party's adeptness at dividing and conquering--i.e. not yielding *one* Ontario seat to the opposition ever since 2004; once gained, it's for keeps, at least through 2011 and subsequent byelections--has kept Watson in ever since. And...that's about it. Which, as affirmed by one-time Watson opponent Taras Natyshak's jaw-dropping 60% provincial landslide in 2014, makes him look pretty darned fragile in a NDP-leading-CPC era. Like yeah, you can mouth words about 'he should make it', but at this point that looks more like euphemism for 'he should remain competitive'. (However, if he wins, it likely means another CPC majority--even if he's won in minorities *both* Con *and* Lib in the past.)
15 07 23 Prime Predictor
2014 election was a disaster for the PCs. Watson is well aware of the NDP threat, and he knows the issues important to this riding. He should hold this, but it won't be easy.
15 04 09 Jason
Provincially, the NDP won this by a large margin during the June 2014 election. However, provincial dynamics were much different. Horwath's populism played well in this part of the province, the Wynne Liberals were unpopular in the Southwest and Hudak was just unpopular everywhere.
I just don't see the same scenario being replicated. The NDP should have residue strength to remain competitive and second. But I believe Jeff Watson will hold on to this riding for this election cycle.
15 04 05 Stevo
Certainly the general 2011 Liberal campaign disaster compounded the party's woes in Essex, but what a difference from the days of the Whelan dynasty. I think Conservatives will hold this but the main challenger continues to be the NDP which has built up a considerable support base in Southwestern Ontario that is arguably more reliable than those downtown Toronto seats that could easily flip to the Liberals in a heartbeat.
15 03 29 Mr. Dave
I wouldn't be so quick to call this one for the Conservatives just yet.
Taras Natyshak won this seat provincially with an 18,000-vote majority in the 2014 provincial election.
Should the ABC movement pick up steam here, I can see this one going NDP federally as well.
15 03 28 monkey
I wouldn't quite yet call this for the Tories, although I suspect they will probably get around 40% of the popular vote give or take a few percentage points. The main thing is will the anti-Conservative vote unite behind either the Liberals or NDP. If they do, then either one could win, but if not it should stay Tory.
15 03 22 Dr. Bear
If compelled to make a call, I would say Conservative hold. However, with Taras Natyshak successfully taking the seat for the NDP provincially, his drawn on the anti-conservative vote will be muted. It'll be interesting to see if wither the NDP or the Liberals could garner enough support to challenge Jeff Watson. At the moment, I don't think the NDP have the momentum to put up a decent fight and will be too occupied trying to keep seats in the GTA and up north. If the Liberals begin to focus on winning seats in southern Ontario, this could be a target.

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