Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Etobicoke North

Prediction Changed
2015-03-19 18:33:42

Constituency Profile


Ayub, Akhtar

Dada, Toyin

Di Carlo, Anna

Duncan, Kirsty

Hassan, Faisal

Szebik, George

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 5941.69%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Etobicoke North
   (168/184 polls, 94.68% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Kirsty Duncan

   Etobicoke Centre
   (16/184 polls, 5.32% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Ted Opitz


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15 09 12 Jason
Always fascinated that the same pool of Etobicoke North swing voters put Rob Ford and Kirsty Duncan in office.
Federally and provincially, this has been a strong big-L Liberal riding.
There are some pockets of NDP support. Some new Dippers and some remaining ones from the Ed Phillips era. However, current NDP support is not strong enough to take this.
15 08 26 R.O.
It seems odd Rob Fords city council area was the only part of Etobicoke that stayed liberal in 2011 ? but Etobicoke north has been a very liberal friendly riding at federal level. The municipal races have had a different dynamic and people vote more for person than political party they support. And conservative candidates that have ran here often have not been that high profile. The new candidate is Tayin Dada who is an interesting choice for the conservatives here. But facing an uphill challenge going up against an incumbent liberal mp. Its likely to stay liberal unless ndp vote increases in this part of Toronto
15 08 13 Craig Hubley
Repeating my call for Kirsty Duncan. NDP rise in the region has put them slightly ahead of the Conservatives but nowhere near a threat to about the best qualified person in the House to deal with scientific medical issues.
Why Ford Nation should be a factor in 2015 other than in the negative, I'm sure I don't know. Ford bullying and fraud was notable in Ted Opitz' stolen 'win' in 2011 when the Ford brothers fought as hard as they know how, broke all the rules they could, and still only managed to steal a one-vote win (once the courts threw out the bad votes that they could prove by affidavit).
Fords are an embarassment. I see Rob has endorsed Donald Trump. That should really impress the female voters of Etobicoke.
15 04 03 Dr. Bear
A possible reason why KD does so well and did well when her fellow Etobicoke liberals fell, she is extremely likeable and connects with people. While I have never witnessed this, friends in the regional Liveral party have been impressed on how Kristi recalls people's names and aspects about them. Imagine how you would feel, if you were some average voter, and you MP remembers you and your concerns. They're not just paying you lip service but seem to genuinely care. You'd probably vote for them despite their party. The Fords seem to have a similar appear (whether they recall aspects of voters or not) and benefit from this as well. Regardless if this is correct or not, all arrows are pointing to KD winning once again.
15 03 31 A.S.
Er, Mr. Hubley, keep in mind that this is electionprediction.com, not candidate-testimonial.com. With that in mind, I'm puzzled by how, in your long, CV-obsessed screed on why Dr. Kirsty Duncan, MP is the bee's knees and a cinch to be reelected, the particular ground-level conditions which *really* make Etobicoke North electorally interesting seem to totally escape you: this happens to be the municipal heart of Ford Nation. The Don Bosco/Steak Queen'd epicentre of the political force that leaves many progressive hands being thrown up in despair and wishing Toronto would deamalgamate: 'you just can't crack these stupids', et al. AND YET...thus far (and this is itself a point which escapes all too many despairing progressives), whatever Ford Nation apparently signifies municipally has *not* trickled up to any great degree provincially or federally. Indeed, it defied all apparent/superficial political metrics for Dr. KD to be handily reelected in 2011...*despite* the collapse of her Iggy-crippled party on behalf of a 416-breakthrough-fueled Conservative majority; and *despite* the fact that the Ford mayoralty was still in something of a honeymoon period; and, for that matter, *despite* her carrying something of a parachuted-incongruity stigma within this heavily ethnoburban turf in her maiden race in 2008. And...yes: here in the heart of Ford Nation, she sits as what'd seem a genuine Grit 'cosmopolitan progressive' rather than the 'Ford Liberal' some might cynically expect. *And yet, nobody's noticed* (granted, being part of a diminished third-party caucus doesn't do much for political profile). And to further defy common presumption, in the 2014 provincial race for Etobicoke North (remember, Doug Ford was *supposed* to be running here), the PCs wound up *third*, behind the NDP, even. Which all goes to show you: political allegiances are more 'complicated' than they seem, and dismiss entire voting blocs at your peril (indeed, I'd suggest that the NDP's more of a sleeper threat to Duncan than the Conservatives; if such exists). Oh, and if neglecting to bring up the Fords is deliberate on 'not worth mentioning' grounds...well, that kind of head in the sand is *more* likely to create another Harper majority, *not* less. Just warning you.
15 03 28 monkey
This may be the heart of Ford Nation, but the demographics here are not favourable to the Tories and the Liberals have always won big here so unless Doug Ford decides to run for the Tories, this should easily stay Liberal. And if Doug Ford does run for them, it may help them pick up this riding, but will cost them several others.
15 03 18 Craig Hubley
Dr. Kirsty Duncan will hold this seat. Anyone with a brain would be glad to have her in parliament. From 1993 to 2000, Duncan taught meteorology, climatology, and climate change at the University of Windsor. In 1992, she shifted focus to virology and began searching for possible frozen samples of lung and brain tissue that might contain the virus. She first thought of Alaska, then eventually (in Longyearbyen, Norway), began a ground survey in 1998. The bodies were not in permafrost but later another group of scientists did in fact dig up samples of the Spanish Flu - in Alaska.
Duncan began speaking about pandemics, which led her to teach corporate social responsibility at the University of Toronto's Rotman School of Management. In 2008, Duncan published a second book, Environment and Health: Protecting our Common Future.
Duncan is currently an adjunct professor teaching both medical geography at the University of Toronto and global environmental processes at Royal Roads University, and served on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, an organization that won the 2007 Nobel Prize with Al Gore.
Against this, perhaps the Conservatives can find a nice car salesman who 'isn't a scientist', 'has his doubts' about evolution, and thinks despite science that being gay 'is a choice'.
This is one race in which the fate of the country might well be decided. See Jane Jacobs' book 'Dark Age Ahead'...

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