Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-10-18 00:38:53

Constituency Profile


Brisson, Jean-Serge

Drouin, Francis

Laurin, Normand

Lemieux, Pierre

Malouin-Diraddo, Genevieve

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 1870.34%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (252/252 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Pierre Lemieux


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15 10 16 SC
In the spirit of making final call, in the absence of any polling (very odd), I'm going to say this traditionally Liberal riding comes back into the fold.
15 10 16 DSR
Given the levels of support now being seen for the Libs in Ontario and the strength apparent in Ottawa area riding polls I think it is now time to call this seat for the Reds.
15 10 10 Spx
I really can't see the Conservatives holding this one when they only won with 18% over the Liberals last time around, and this was the disaster election for the Liberals.
15 10 01 carpentier
Conservative numbers are stronger here, with motivated support and nowhere else to go. Likely a two-way race with the Liberals, but Liberal support is limited to selected sections. Wynne is very unpopular and it will be one of rural ridings where her policies drag Liberals down. It will be much worse for Liberals here than in provincial election. Cross-border Quebec NDP vote matters little.
15 09 16 Marco Ricci
According to Randall Denly in The Ottawa Citizen today, Conservative internal polling shows them in trouble in several Ottawa ridings.
They are not out of the race here yet (the way they are way down in Orléans) but the Conservatives are said to be 'behind by mid-single digit margins in Nepean, Ottawa West-Nepean and Glengarry-Prescott-Russell.'
15 09 15 SPP
This is another traditional Liberal stronghold in Eastern Ontario, and one that should return to red given the Liberal strength in Ontario. To the other commentators describing this riding as Conservative territory now, the Ontario Liberals received 50% of the vote here last election. I foresee a close race but the Liberals edging it out by about 5%. Unless the Liberals collapse in Eastern Ontario, I don't see how the Conservatives can hold onto this one.
15 09 08 Tony Ducey
1 time a Liberal stronghold (Went Liberal in the Mulroney tidal wave of 1984), now it's gone CPC and I think it'll stay that way in 2015 though I expect it to not be as close this time.
15 09 05 Marco Ricci
With Liberal support up in Ontario in the new polls, this riding now has a 56% chance of going Liberal according to the 308 Projection (September 4, 2015):
This is just one factor since the Conservatives have incumbency advantage and the Liberals have struggled Federally in rural Ontario in the past few elections, but this is now one to keep an eye on.
15 08 31 ElectionHawk
Hawkesbury has been massively targeted by the Liberals, Drouin signs are everywhere, whereas the rest of the riding has strong Conservative presence. NDP campaign is weak, perhaps they left it to the other parties. Conservatives still have an edge, but a lot depends on national trends. This is certainly not true everywhere, but in this riding Liberal-NDP strength is so lopsided that many Dippers likely shift to the Liberals. Too close to call for now.
15 08 30 A.S.
Given the continued Duffygate fallout and Grant Crack's dug-in advantage in 2014's provincial election, as well as the curiously strong Liberal tendencies of Greater Ottawa, I wouldn't be so hasty with perma-Con conclusions about GPR--or if it happens, it'll be more the accident of Quebec's Franco-Orangeness melting inconveniently across the border, a 'Hawkesbury-going-NDP' circumstance, et al.
15 08 28 Monkey Cheese
The Conservatives have been slipping into third place in a couple recent national polls and 308 (as of August 28) shows that it's the Liberals who are projected to win here with 53% probability. The fact that the Tories couldn't get over 50% last time, when the Liberals hit rock bottom, is also something to consider. I'm not saying the Liberals will win as the polls could say something completely different next week, but for the time being I think this needs to be moved to TCTC. This riding just got much more competitive.
15 08 07 DC
Pierre Lemieux has established himself here. The local candidate plays a big role here, hence the incumbency bonus he will get. His chances only go up the stronger the NDP get as it splits the vote nicely.
15 08 03 R.O.
Well this had been a liberal riding traditionally its also been very incumbent friendly and Pierre Lemieux being the current mp has an advantage. But the riding is also similar to others in eastern Ontario that mostly vote conservative and a mix of rural and suburban areas that commute into Ottawa. The current mp should be able to hold onto this riding although liberals remain his main competition.
15 07 12 #ABC51
This riding is getting more Anglophone and Don Boudria isn't running for the Liberals. The NDP is a joke here.
15 04 27 Stevo
The fact that the Conservatives couldn't get over 50% in 2011 in this largely rural/smalltown Eastern Ontario riding (in stark contrast to all the other ridings that fit those criteria) is a reminder of how ridiculously Liberal this used to be - picture a Liberal Crowfoot. Glengarry-Prescott-Russell gave Liberal Don Boudria 53% of the vote in the 1984 Mulroney landslide election, and he wasn't even an incumbent (it was an open seat). Conservative success here mirrors success in other francophone-heavy non-Quebec seats such as Saint Boniface or Madawaska-Restigouche, however with those two seats possible targets for Liberal take-back it may be likewise for GPR.
15 03 28 monkey
Used to be a very safe Liberal riding, but has become more Tory friendly in recent years. The Liberals should do well in communities along the Ottawa River which are predominately Francophone, but the Tories tend to rack up big margins in the southern parts which are more Anglophone so while I give the Tories the edge, this is probably the Liberals best hope for in Rural Southern Ontario.
15 03 25 Jack Cox
Hard riding to pick, I think this is about to be turned into a swing riding, if the Liberals form the Government they should win this seat and basically the same with the Tories if they form the government.

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