Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-09-07 22:35:28

Constituency Profile


Jiang, Bang-Gu

Kao, Elvin

Saroya, Bob

Zimmerman, Colleen

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 3760.96%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Oak Ridges-Markham
   (93/181 polls, 52.42% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Paul Calandra

   (88/181 polls, 47.58% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. John McCallum


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15 10 10 Marco Ricci
I'm now ready to call Markham-Unionville for the Liberals.
If the riding polls for Markham-Stouffville are accurate and the Liberals are giving Paul Calandra a tough fight there, they are even more likely to be ahead here.
15 09 22 R.O.
Markham hasn't got much attention this election although harper was here earlier in the campaign. This being one of a number of new and open ridings in area around Toronto I still don't really have a good feel for this riding. It will likely depend on how overall campaign turns out but do feel this area is a race between liberals and conservatives and that riding could still go either way . As it doesn't appear the ndp has focused much attention to York region this election.
15 09 12 Jason
Neither the Liberal nor Tory candidate could be considered high profile. However, Markham Unionville is an upper middle class, socially/fiscally centrist riding. With the way the election trends are going this should be a likely pick up for the Liberals.
15 08 17 A.S.
Saroya was the odd man out in the Cons' 2011 near-sweep of the 905; so, nothing like favourable redistribution to make it a belated wash--even the Calandraland add-ons saw surprisingly strong provincial PC support last year--but, this being this stretch of of the 905, such a wash isn't guaranteed. Chinese-Canadians may hate taxes and love Jason Kenney, but they also don't necessarily like the cloud of Duffygate sleaze, either. Though in a funny way, I wouldn't be surprised if Calandra got defeated yet Saroya survived--one might argue that the notional Con 2011 advantage here is artificially *low*, due to the vestigial McCallum factor as well as lack of a Whitchurch skewing the OR-M figure upward...
15 08 16 Swellow
This is one of the seats where ethnic politics could play a larger role than party politics. If it's ethnic politics, this will be a Liberal win. If the play is political, It will probably go Tory. I think it will be more political as the Asian community hate higher taxes, and so this will probably go Tory.
15 08 15 Tes
I live in this riding, and have also lived here when Mr. Saroya ran in 2011 (although the boundaries have significantly changed). He has the backing of a Chinese group who has knocked on my door three times over the past five months. They have been constantly reaching out to voters. I have still to hear from Ms. Bang-Gu. Right now I am considering this a Tory seat, only because it appears the Liberal infrastructure is not as strong as the Conservative base here. While Chinese are majority here, Tamils also make up a good number, and the Rathika-effect may pull generally Liberal voting Tamils to the NDP, making it even more difficult for Ms. Bang-Gu. We will see how this goes.
15 08 07 Follow The Numbers
Polls are neck and neck in this part of Markham and a big wildcard is how well the NDP do and who they take votes away from. If they take away support from the Conservatives then the Liberals will win and viceversa. The Liberals do have a strong candidate here and they are still polling better than they did in 2011. I'm going to go with a Liberal win here as strategic voting can also come into play, but I also won't be surprised if the Conservatives win here as well. It also depends on how badly either party does in the polls leading up to October.
15 07 31 Woodworth
Bob Saroya came within a few votes of winning this riding last time. It loses the Liberal leaning Milliken into Markham-Thornhill. Liberals polling low and he should win.
15 07 30 R.O.
A tough riding to predict, Markham did go liberal last time but this redistributed riding would of went conservative based on 2011 numbers. No incumbent running in the riding either and main candidates aren't that well known although Bob Saroya has ran before for conservatives . ndp has never been much of a factor in york region and be surprised if they do much here , a riding that may depend on how overall race plays out .
15 07 23 Prime Predictor
The CPC would have likely won this with a Chinese candidate. Redistribution still favours them, but their non-Chinese candidate will have trouble against Chinese LPC candidate. Slight Liberal advantage, but TCTC.
15 03 28 monkey
At the moment, I would give the Liberals the edge here, but the Tories are still quite competitive here so any swing in their favour could allow them to hold this one.
15 03 24 JC
Even during the worst Liberal year this seat stayed red. The riding has changed a bit, but I would be stunned if it's not Liberal red.

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Canada Federal Election - 2015
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