Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-10-17 01:26:18

Constituency Profile


Arya, Chandra

Cooke, Jean-Luc Roger

Cosico, Jesus

Devine, Sean

Mamba, Hubert

Seed, Tony

Splett, Harry

Wang, Andy

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (189/189 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Pierre Poilievre


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15 10 17 Jason
The Liberals will be taking Nepean primarily because the Tories fielded a poor candidate. The local candidate will make a difference in a tightly contested race.
15 10 15 M K
It took a while for Nepean to even make the TCTC column, but I think this will be a Liberal upset. With the riding poll and the provincial trend in favour of Trudeau in the crucial last two weeks of the campaign (advanced voting & election day), this has the mark of a clear win for Arya and not a coin toss.
Trudeau got a good crowd in Barrhaven on Monday.
15 10 13 SC
A new Environics poll for this riding on behalf of Leadnow (the strategic voting people) shows the Liberals leading the Tories 47-40.
15 10 14 Marco Ricci
The Ottawa Citizen reported a new Environics riding poll for Nepean today.
One always has to be cautious when interpreting riding polls, but it's possible that these new numbers indicate some Liberal momentum:
Liberal/Arya (47)
Conservative/Wang (40)
NDP/Devine (10)
Green/Cooke (4)
15 10 11 Marco Ricci
David Reevely of The Ottawa Citizen reports that Justin Trudeau will be coming to Nepean tomorrow:
Could be a sign that the Liberals are seeing the same close numbers that the Mainstreet poll reported.
15 10 09 Marco Ricci
If Karen McCrimmon is nearly beating the Conservatives in Kanata-Carleton, then I can definitely believe that the Liberals are also in contention in Nepean since this riding is less conservative-leaning than the former.
The Mainstreet polls showing close LPC-CPC races in Nepean & Kanata-Carleton also match up with the Conservative internal polls that Randall Denley reported in The Ottawa Citizen a couple of weeks ago which he said show the CPC in a tougher situation in the Ottawa area than in 2011.
15 10 09 DSR
Mainstreet Research poll (15/10/4) Lib 42%, Con 41%, NDP 13%, Green 4%.
15 10 08 Jeff S
One point separates LPC and CPC according to Mainstreet. TCTC.
15 10 01 NAbir
The ABC movement is rallying behind Chandra Arya here. NDP candidate is strong but he does not have a chance. People who want Harper gone start realizing this. They are all supporting the liberal candidate now. Chandra will win.
15 09 25 Woodworth
Recent [edited] poll by LeadNow still gave Wang a healthy lead. This riding is staying blue in October.
15 09 17 Michael
I could see Wang (Con) or Arya (Lib) winning this at this point. Wang is a very weak candidate in comparison to Arya and has the baggage of being associated with the much loathed Poilievre, but while the new riding is certainly less Conservative than before, there are still more than solid Conservative supporters and Liberal/Conservative swing voters enough for Wang to win (and since people are mostly voting for parties rather than local personalities, Wang's substance (or lack thereof) and his ties to Poilievre matter only to a minimal degree in determining who will vote for him) and he has a very well organized campaign machine on his side. Arya, meanwhile, has room to take the riding himself given its demographics and discontent with the Conservatives being far higher than in recent previous elections, but vote splitting with the NDP could easily do him in.
15 09 16 Marco Ricci
According to Randall Denley in The Ottawa Citizen today, Conservative internal polling shows them in trouble in several Ottawa ridings.
They are not out of the race here yet (the way they are way down in Orléans) but the Conservatives are said to be 'behind by mid-single digit margins in Nepean, Ottawa West-Nepean and Glengarry-Prescott-Russell.'
This riding is Too Close To Call.
15 09 18 Bman99
According to the Ottawa Citizen the Conservatives did a poll here and it had the Liberals in a single digit lead over them. I think the NDP will take enough votes away from the Liberals to give the Conservatives the win. But maybe not, if the ABC group of voters rallies behind Chandra Arya (L) he can squeeze by
15 09 12 Adeline96
While I do think the Conservatives will win this seat, I think it should be placed in the Too Close to Call category for the time being. If Kanata-Carleton is Too Close to Call right now, this should be as well. The dust hasn't settled and polls are all showing the three major parties in different positions across Ontario. The Conservative candidate does not have have rural Carleton to rely on to vote Tory en masse, and growing suburbs like Barrhaven have also brought in more Conservative/Liberal swing voters. Using the regional swing method Seat aggregators use, some polls show the Liberals winning this seat.
15 09 08 Walter
308 says Liberals will win this riding (67%). Conservatives run a recent university graduate against an experienced businessman.
15 09 06 Tes
I agree with the Conservative call here. I visited Ottawa last weekend and my friends in Nepean mostly agree Andy Wang will win here. A lot of them have had Andy Wang at their doors, and the Liberal does not appear to be active here. Provincially this seat had one of the largest victory margins in Ontario. Easy win for Wang.
15 08 17 Craig Hubley
308 calls this only 53% Con chance to win, with the Liberals clearly still the challengers. It was way too early to call this one, in my opinion. Especially as it's in a swing region. The one thing favouring the Cons is that a vote for the most likely government (NDP) is a split vote here with the Liberals in charge. So I'd give them the edge, but not the prediction.
15 08 16 Swellow
Everyone in my neighbourhood seems to be pretty fiscally Conservative, and my poll went tory by a large margin last time. I can't see this riding going Liberal over a few nomination controversies, and most regular voters do not pay attention to them.
15 08 08 R.O.
This is a fairly reliable conservative riding , however riding has been redistributed and less rural. there is no incumbent this election and Andy Wang somewhat new to politics . but looking at past results its such a strong tory riding its hard to see opposition gaining enough here. It might be closer than 2011 but likely to stay conservative.
15 08 07 Follow The Numbers
If John Baird stayed on, the Conservatives would have easily won this riding. Now that he's gone, and the Conservatives have a no-name candidate here, it will be much more competitive. With a horserace in Ontario and this riding, I think that this is TCTC for now. It's the Conservative's to lose and if they fall in the polls, then ridings like this are in play.
15 07 23 Prime Predictor
This race will be decided by the federal campaign. Wang's support from the Chinese community might give him an extra seat. However, this riding is more Conservative than Liberal, and unless it's bad for the Tories they will win it. CPC win.
15 07 16 Naythan
This is my home riding. The Conservative Candidate has already been to my door twice, which either means he is worried he will lose this seat or he has really good organization. Considering this seat did vote en masse for Pierre Poilievre federally and Lisa Macleod provincially (as well as staunch conservatives George Darouze and Jan Harder for Ottawa City Council), I will say it is more the organization which allowed the candidate to come by so often. It will take a massive collapse in Con vote to see this riding go red or even orange.
15 07 16 Dr Bear
Polling data is showing this race to be as close as the one in Kanata-Carelton. It seems in both ridings the CPC is ahead of the Liberals by only 2 - 3 points. Definitely TCTC with those kind of numbers.
15 07 11 A.S.
Even before, and particularly after Baird's withdrawal, I was deeming this 'more vulnerable than it looks'. But now with news of a young Poilievre-plant android snatching the CPC nomination from a much more qualified individual, the 'more vulnerable than it looks' volume knob is being turned to 11--could this be the new version of all those Jaysusland bozos thwarting supposed sure-thing CPC pickups like St. Kitts and Kitchener-Conestoga a decade ago?
15 03 29 ottawa99
The loss of John Baird as a candidate is definitely a blow to the Tories here, but I still think they have the advantage. If the Liberals make further gains in the polls in Ontario this could become more competitive, but I don't think their current numbers would pull them through here. Tory hold, but closer than last time.
15 03 28 monkey
Had John Baird stayed on, the Tories would have definitely won this, but with him stepping down it does make this more competitive. While I still give the Tories the edge, the riding isn't as favourable as it used to be as a decade ago this was fairly rural whereas today its mostly suburban.
15 03 26 Dr. Bear
No, this riding is not going to reelect Poilievre because he isn't running here. John Baird was slated to run but obviously that's not happening now. No party has nominated anyone yet, so I'll wait and see before I make a call. Threehundredeight is suggesting this riding may be close but I'm a bit incredulous.
15 03 25 Jack Cox
Pierre Poilievre may be the worst member of cabinet but this riding is going to keep on electing him until he doesn't run again.

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