Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Niagara Centre

Prediction Changed
2015-03-21 12:46:20

Constituency Profile


Allen, Malcolm

Badawey, Vance

Clow, David

Di Bartolomeo, Jody

Villella, Leanna

Walker, Ron J.

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 4450.92%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (249/251 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Malcolm Allen


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15 10 14 prognosticator15
I agree with Dr. Bear this is a three-way race now, but I doubt we can easily project polling numbers to calculate votes. While I do not rely on opinion polls (just like Harper and Mulcair claim), the supposedly objective polls may create a bandwagon effect for a celebrity politician in certain types of ridings, in particular among those who are both leftist-leaning and low education types. Trudeau appeal may be more limited in most places than polls project, but does have impact where such population is concentrated, in particular with leftist program, left of NDP, where he can play a sort-of Jeremy Corbin populist with success. I expect this to be close, and anyone can win here, but Allen cannot rely on his incumbency advantage, it is too volatile here, stable constituencies are rather limited. Cons have a support ceiling despite a popular candidate, but any party can come first, second or third. A close race to the end, but my bias is in this riding more than elsewhere (except perhaps in Oshawa, another current NDP riding) the polling bandwagon effect plays out to Liberal advantage.
15 10 09 Dr. Bear
I actually agree with R.O. on this one: it should be too close to call. The NDP are down in Ontario relative to 2011, however the CPC are down by a similar proportion (last time I crunched the nubers, the NDP would get about 74% of their 2011 support, while the CPC would get 78% of their 2011 support). Apply this to the current riding and the NDP and CPC are tied around 31% (the Liberals would sit at about 25% of the vote). Of course Allen has incumbent advantage, but I wouldn't discount team blue (or even team red in a fluke).
15 10 07 R.O.
This riding should really be too close to call as ndp numbers down from 2011 by a significant margin in all polls. And this is an Ontario riding they won by 2% or less in both 2011 and 2008 elections over the conservatives and was liberal before that. Malcolm Allen is the incumbent but with ndp support now down its clear a riding like this is going to remain a close race like in years past.
15 09 19 B.L.
It appears to me that the Conservative vote was increasing while their National share was increasing. In 2011 the ABC vote went to Allen causing the Liberal support to crater. It would seem unlikely that the Conservative would be as high here as they were in 2011 given where they are in the polls. Meanwhile, Allen has established an incumbency advantage that should keep most of his votes. NDP hold unless there is some crazy (red or blue) tide in the last 10 days of the election.
15 08 23 R.O.
This is considered to be a safe ndp area as they also hold the provincial riding . however last couple federal races have been very close. And conservatives have increased numbers in this riding in past elections. Leanna Villella is also back as the conservative candidate . the liberals have a new candidate as former mp John Maloney is not running again so its tough to say what liberals do here. Malcolm Allen likely has somewhat of an advantage as he's been mp since 2008 but type of riding that has been competitive in this region of Ontario .
15 08 23 A.S.
Interesting what happened in 2011 three-way rematch; Malcolm Allen's surprise 2008 win turned into the NDP and CPC playing chicken a la 'Hot Rod Lincoln' (okay, 'Hot Rod Welland', with respect to old county boundaries;-)) while ex-MPP John Maloney wiped out on Dead Man's Curve. And contrary to Carleton Student, redistribution does *not* favour the Conservatives--they chucked Wainfleet, after all--and if anything, former PoCo mayor Vance Badawey's likelier to split the right vote than the left. It took 2008 until the seat went federally Dipper; but once the Kormos glue holds, it holds. (Ah, Peter Kormos: now *there's* the Sanders/Corbyn left-populist hero Canada never really had...)
15 03 28 monkey
I wouldn't call this for the NDP so quick. Prior to the meltdown last election, the Liberals were usually strong here so could win this. Likewise if you get a tight three way race, the Tories could slip up the middle. I suspect the Tory vote will decline but the right vote splits could allow them to win this.
15 03 26 Carleton Student
This could be a surprise on election night. Welland was a strong NDP seat, but redistribution helps the Conservatives. It will be within two points either way, but if the Liberals can get to 20% in the riding, the tories get elected here.
15 03 19 Craig Hubley
Pretty safe NDP country even in the midst of a Trudeau wave. The issues that matter in this riding are often surprising - as a crossroads people here tend to hear about and perceive themselves as involved in everything: tourism, industry, trade, immigration, the dollar (being a border riding). Voters here are surprisingly well informed in general.
They don't fall for national trends much. Especially not in Welland. It has its own view of things.

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