Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Niagara Falls

Prediction Changed
2015-03-24 23:41:41

Constituency Profile


Ioannoni, Carolynn

Nicholson, Rob

Planche, Ron

Soos, Steven

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 2590.48%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Niagara Falls
   (269/269 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Rob Nicholson


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15 10 09 Dr. Bear
With the NDP crashing, the chances of them winning here are gone. The Liberals have the momentum but not the steam to defeat Nicholson. Nicholson wins the day for team blue (until he retires; then I say both team red and team orange have a shot).
15 09 13 Niagara Pundit
Niagara Falls City Councillor and NDP candidate Carolynn Ioannoni will give Nicholson a run for his money. Here's why:
1. The anti-Harper crowd is clearly coalescing around her campaign, as evidenced by the fact that she has won endorsements from high profile Liberals like former MPP Kim Craitor and former Niagara Falls mayor Wayne Thomson. She is clearly best candidate the party has ever run federally and she brings with her an army of volunteers from her many municipal campaigns.
2. The Liberals nominated Kim Craitor's former legislative assistant. Craitor has endorsed Ioannoni. Enough said.
3. The NDP brand has really grown in this riding since 2011 when the party finished 2nd without running a local campaign. The NDP won a provincial by-election (with a Niagara Falls City Councillor as a candidate) in Feb 2014 and NDP MPP Wayne Gates was re-elected with 47% of the vote in June 2014. That gives the NDP a tremendous base of support and a strong organization on the ground during the federal election. Gates strongly supports Ioannoni and campaigns with her non-stop.
4. Nicholson lost federal election races in Niagara Falls in 93 and 97. He's certainly not unbeatable. In fact, a Tory nose dive in national polls will likely result in his defeat.
15 09 01 Bill Doyle
Because Harper can control him, Nicholson is a Cabinet Minister _ not based on his ability to represent the riding. Other than being present for 'photo ops' Nicholson says little, and does little for the riding. Nicholson can be beaten! Strategic voting will defeat him.
Carolynn Ioannini, NDP candidate, in my opinion, has the best chance to defeat Nicholson. She has the support of not only Kim Craitor but also Wayne Gates. The fact that Tom Mulcair visited the riding immediately after her nomination indicates she has strong federal NDP support. We may like what Elizabeth May and/or Justin Trudeau say and want to support their respective candidate in the riding. However, a vote for a non NDP candidate in Niagara Falls riding is a vote for Nicholson. Let's work together to stop Harper from forming the Government - defeat Nicholson!
15 08 26 jeff316
Wayne Redekop would have made this one close. Niagara Falls and Fort Erie are ripe for the NDP. But an uber-weak, fourth-string NDP candidate hands this one to the Conservatives, and signals that something is up with the Niagara NDP.
15 08 21 Nick
One could also say that they are former Conservative supporter who will be voting NDP. Seems to be a lot more of them than NDP supporters voting Conservative if you follow the polls. Not that I think Nicholson is going to lose this riding with certainty, be considering how well the NDP did provincially in Niagara Falls and the organization that they now have to work on in the riding, I would say that the NDP have a decent shot at winning this riding - most certainly, the best shot of any of the three ridings in Niagara currently held by the Conservatives. If Craitor was running, I'd say this were a slam dunk. But with the NDP holding the lead nationally and a strong Ontario support base in this part of the province, it may carry though locally allowing Carolyn to take down a heavyweight like Nicholson. NOTL will most certainly stay blue, but Fort Erie will most likely turn orange and Niagara Falls is a toss-up. I'm not ready to make any predictions yet myself, but we'll have to keep an eye on things in the next two months, as Niagara Falls may move into the TCTC column.
15 08 18 Former NDP Supporter
As a former NDP supporter, I will be voting for the person this time not the party. Rob Nicholson is a good person, he wins Niagara Falls, he wins Niagara on the Lake annd probably wins Fort Erie. The NDP did not pick a quality candidate - she is definitely not a Craitor. She did come eighth in municipal elections and got rejected more times from the Liberals than anyone else. The PC campaign machine is organized well oiled and already hit the ground running. The NDP and Liberal campaigns are stalled in neutral and both want to ride the coattails of their leaders. If the Liberals do not get started on the NDP they will be left in the dust in third.
15 08 17 ME
Mulcair came to Niagara Falls on his campaign tour today...announced financial support for Tourism which Harper had cut 24 million and Mulcair is putting 30 million back in over 3 years...The NDP hold this riding provincially and they can put on a serious campaign to take out a cabinet minister with a former Liberal city council person running as their candidate. The Harper regime has been hurt by the Duffy coverup .
15 08 17 RJC
Now that Craitor is out, it looks like the NDP candidate will be Niagara Falls city councillor Carolynn Ioannoni. She has been on council for years but almost lost her seat in the most recent municipal election (2014). She's not a bad candidate for the NDP, but she's not Craitor either. I think I have to give this one to Nicholson again.
15 08 05 Nick
Craitor has announced that he is *not* running, so for the time being this is again Nicholson's to lose.
15 08 03 Jan
With the NDP running former popular Liberal MPP Kim Craitor, this riding is a lock for the NDP who recently won and held the riding provincially.
15 08 01 Jason
If Kim Craitor runs for the NDP it changes the whole dynamic of this race. Still won't be a lock for the NDP, but it will be a riding to watch.
15 07 29 RJC
If Kim Craitor runs for the NDP, this race will become very hot, very quickly. He'll be the toughest opponent Nicholson has faced since he took back the seat in 2004.
15 07 28 Nick
Former MPP and current Niagara Falls city councillor Kim Craitor has announced that the NDP have approached him about running federally and he is giving consideration to it. Should he run, this entire race changes.
Bit of background: During his most recent council run, Kim Craitor didn't spend one cent on his campaign, didn't put out one ad or up one sign and finished the election with more votes than any other at-large city councillor or regional councillor. Only the mayor won with more votes than him. He is well-respected even in Fort Erie despite the public perception that his party was intentionally trying to 'screw' the town. Craitor campaigned for MPP with signs that didn't even have any party affiliation listed on them. He is simply that popular.
Knowing this, if Craitor runs, he wins on name alone and Rob Nicholson - regardless of his high-ranking position in the Harper government - is toast. No way to put it other than that.
15 07 28 ME
Kim Craitor the former lIberal MPP who resigned in 2013 will be running for the NDP..He will win
15 07 21 A.S.
Worth noting that long before he became the provincially-byelected Moustache That Broke The Internet, Wayne Gates was the archetypal Blue-Collar Ontario Heartland Layton candidate in 2004 and 2006--good enough to crack a viable 20% threshold and win a number of polls, even if the ducks weren't yet set to break Red vs Blue common wisdom around these parts. Yes, Nicholson's been a bit of an invincibly cabinet-enhanced powerhouse, but as with so much HarperCon his safety in a seat like this in 2015 *could* be beset by paper-tigerdom--all the more so in an age of Mulcair-in-the-lead-and-Gates-at-Queen's-Park (remember: Wayne Gates was supposed to be a by-fluke, yet he pulverised the PCs' Bart Maves even *more* thoroughly in the general). Remember: it's still fundamentally a blue-collar riding, where even tourism wears a certain 'service industry' cloak--to dismiss it all as 'basically an amusement park' projects a lot more Trump-For-President nincompoopness than NF really has or needs. (Come to think of it, why *hasn't* Trump yet invested in Niagara Falls?)
15 04 09 Jason
Despite Nicholson holding this seat since 2004, this riding cannot be classified as a conservative stronghold. Provincially, the Liberals held this seat from 2003-2014 and now the NDP hold it.
However, the federal Conservatives are doing much better than their provincial counterparts. Nicholson is somewhat of a high profile incumbent and that should help him. The biggest factor of a Conservative victory here will be a split opposition. I could see it going something like CPC 45% NDP 25% LPC 25%.
15 03 28 monkey
This is normally a swing riding where you have Niagara on the Lake with its small town feel and large senior population being solidly Tory. Niagara Falls where most live is more bellwether while Fort Erie is more populist and thus hard to predict as it voted for the Canadian Alliance in 2000, but yet went NDP in the last two elections. Nonetheless Rob Nicholson has enough personal popularity that as long as he runs, the Tories should hold this. If he decides not to run, then I will move this to too close to call.
15 03 24 Craig Hubley
Rob Nicholson managed to silence the media criticism of underperforming Ministries, which is no mean feat when you take up the mantle of failed ministers Vic Toews or John Baird, who managed to pretty much anger the entire planet. By contrast Nicholson has managed to avoid the publicity for pushing forward the same odious policies and legislation as his predecessors. That's a political skill, especially notable when you consider that the policies that Nicholson is advancing are indefensible.
In Foreign Affairs it's hard to lose your job, because it's a power position that doesn't directly affect your constituents negatively. It has the prestige but not the drawbacks. That said, it's possible to very seriously blow up in that portfolio given the range of things one has to comment on. Nicholson has made more than one indefensible statement on his various public feeds https://openparliament.ca/politicians/rob-nicholson/
No doubt there'll be a lively campaign and some embarassing things quoted to ethnic communities in Niagara Falls.
But the riding is basically an amusement park, with a strong pro-business laissez-faire bent, and as long as Harper is believed to be good for small business, Nicholson will get re-elected here. Delusional as that belief may be.

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