Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Niagara West

Prediction Changed
2015-03-25 21:24:50

Constituency Profile


Allison, Dean

de Roo, Allan

Frere, Sid

Jonker, Harold

Rahman, Nameer

Rose, Phil

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 11002.52%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Niagara West-Glanbrook
   (169/193 polls, 90.42% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Dean Allison

   (17/193 polls, 7.94% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Malcolm Allen

   St. Catharines
   (7/193 polls, 1.64% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Rick Dykstra


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15 10 13 ME
The liberals are surging...Allison may hold on but I know conservatives who are voting Liberal...chicken farmers even...
15 10 10 R.O.
Dean Alliston has been mp of this riding since 2004 and done well in the riding in past elections . its also conservative at provincial level and held by former pc leader Tim Hudak . it's a somewhat rural riding with Grimsby being one of the larger towns. Its likely to stay conservative
15 10 08 D.M.
Despite M.E.'s constant comments to the contrary this one will be a Conservative hold. I expect Allison will drop a few points into the low 50's high 40's but will win easily. The demographics are in his favour and while not a stand out MP he does have long term incumbency.
I also expect this to be a place where the Liberals get back into 2nd place with Phil Rose as their candidate. He has more riding knowledge than Rahman and his signs seem to be in place all over the riding while the NDP presence that was clearly visible in 2011 is gone.
15 09 29 JRW
Geez, if it was on P & P it must be gospel. This will be a Conservative hold with Allison getting AT LEAST 40% of the vote. Will be an interesting battle for second place though.
15 09 25 ME
P and P reported tonight the Govt is willing to make concessions for the PTT which will leave chicken and dairy Farmers out in the cold....The deal will be signed over the Thanksgiving weekend. I am not saying this means a Conservative loss...OTOH I am saying if those opposed to the Govt move towards one opposition party this will become the closest election in a decade.
15 09 02 ME
The NDP came in second place in 2011 ahead of the Liberals who were in third place...The gap between the 2 will widen this time...If Harper signs off on the Pacific trade deal and let's dairy and polluters farmers take the hit the vote will be extremely close. Plus the Govt reneged on compensation on another trade deal and will do the same on this trade deal.
15 08 23 A.S.
Ironically, with all these robocalls/dairy-deals/etc accusations and counter-accusations, this thread's getting too obtrusively 'politicized' for its own good (though it sure beats all the I'm Always Right trolling of a few years back). The fact is, with everything Hamiltonian being beaten back westward and Wainfleet and the rural fringe of St. Kitts added for good measure, NW is even more Bible Belt supersafe than ever. And btw/ wine-country gentrification around the escarpment zone and Wainfleet no longer skewed by residual NDPism, it's also a reasonable candidate for Libs reassuming (remote) second place advantage. But if all those negatives pile up, well...for Allison to be reduced to a 'Hudak 2014' 42% *without* all that Glanbrook/Stoney Creek stuff weighing things down would send enough of a message.
15 08 18 Craig Hubley
Not making a prediction here, but when you see an un-named post from 'DA Campaign' that 1. predicts a win 2. claims 'to set the record straight' 3. makes claims on behalf of Dean Allison without quoting Dean directly 4. Claims to be 'the individual in charge for such happenings in Dean's campaign' without a name. 5. Tries to shut down the speculation with 'End of conversation' you tend to become much more interested in the situation.
This reads exactly like the denials of RoboCalls in Guelph, other ridings, of central Conservative campaign knowledge of them, of Harper's knowledge of the details of the Cadman and Duffy affairs/bribes. Not convincing me.
What would be of some value is an actual press statement from Dean himself containing a quote from him, with someone to actually direct questions to. Given the way RoboCalls affected 2011, voters are right to be high alert.
15 08 13 ME
There is no money in the budget for compensation for workers with regards to any Free Trade deal. I also note a previous deal was signed with references to compensation. The compensation has not been paid. Diary and poultry Farmers cannot count on this govt to pay compensation.
I note the Ottawa Citizen story this week by Glen McGregor on 'Voter Outreach centre' is being set up to place calls into the ridings. The phone calls are part and parcel of the conservative campaign.
Both of these could be a minefield for the local and National campaign for the Conservatives.
15 08 09 Ian
ME, IF the milk marketing boards are phased out, all producers will be offered million dollar compensation. Even an NDP government will do it, for fear of losing votes in Quebec.
15 08 07 ME
Harper has now confirmed the trade talks will continue...during the election. Thus , up to 20,000 dairy and poultry farmers face ruin if the Harper Govt Sells them out. My understanding was 'caretaker' Govt's cannot sign trade deals. Petty items like this will not stop Harper.
Regarding the phone calls...we are expecting another phone call giving us voting instructions.
In the debate last night the economy called Mr. Harper a liar.
There is a narrative of corruption and deceit within the Conservative party.
15 08 03
ME can spout whatever he wants. Fact is Dean never voiced a call, and no calls were made.
15 08 02 ME
Apparently the trade deal will not be signed prior to the election unless Harper does it anyway with a caretaker Govt in power....if no deal is signed the riding will likely remain Conservative. I received a phone call from Dean Alison. It was not a live call but used Dean Allison's voice. Glad we have this established and verified by the Tory Campaign Team who as we all know are noted for acting with integrity in the last 3 election campaigns.
15 08 01 DA Campaign
Though I would chime in to set the record straight. Neither Dean Allison nor his campaign has run any robocalls as of this date (August 1st). How do I know... I am the individual in charge for such happenings in Dean's campaign. The writer who stated that it was a call on behalf of David Sweet was correct. There is no doubt that ME received a call, but it was most definitely not from or on behalf of Dean Allison. Facts stated for the record. End of conversation.
15 07 30 ME
The Talks are to be signed prior to the election and will involve both dairy and poultry marketing ...in my area many rural families are involved in one or the other. The USA is linking continued involved in the free trade talks with Canada compromising on the above. Longtime Conservative are literally worried about losing one or both and will vote accordingly against Dean. I received the robocall from Dean in the eastern rural part of the riding...nowhere close to Glanbrook about supporting Dean...Sweet's name was never referenced and DM continues to insist he heard the call I received. If the Harper Govt caves in on diary and/or poultry marketing this riding will be in play...I suspect this may not be the in the interest of Dean Allison ..
15 07 27
Dean Allison did NOT run any robocalls in the riding. The call was made by David Sweet for an event in Glanbrook where Dean's name was mentioned as he was a guest at the event. I know this because I got the call and I also know for a fact where it came from as I asked the source of the calls. Get your facts straight ME. The calls were made as part of David Sweet's outreach into the riding as he will be running in the new riding of Flamborough-Glanbrook which encompasses a part of the current Niagara West-Glanbrook riding. As far as your comments about the riding being made up of dairy farmers, there are indeed dairy farmer for sure, but they are not they only voters in the riding. No single special interest group has enough of a stronghold on votes to make that much of a difference. If you were to ask the majority of non-dairy farmers if they would like supply management or cheaper prices on milk you might be surprised to find that they would be in favour of money in their pockets.
15 07 20 ME
DM says the robocalls are not being run by Dean Alison...This is false. Dean Alison called my house. I know Dean and respect him as a riding MP. PM Harper is moving forward on a free Trade deal which will end Dairy and Poultry marketing in Canada to get a deal. The riding is made up of farmers who are in both. They will not be happy if the Prime Minister does end Marketing for Diary and Poultry producers. This may or may not happen but if it happens it will not go well for Dean in this upcoming election. I live in the rural area of the riding and the above reflects the views of my neighbours.
15 07 15
Just as a point of clarification, Allison is not running robocalls, it is actually David Sweet that was running calls to the 'Glanbrook' part of the riding that he will be running in.
Even if the NDP and Liberal votes combined from last time, Allison would still take the riding. ME is obviously not a supporter and has a bias against Allison and is not actually getting a true read on the majority of voters in the riding.
15 07 12 D.M.
M.E. you sound increasingly like a partisan NDPer who just 'hopes' Allison will lose in the fall. I don't doubt at all this will be much tighter than 2011 but it would take a perfect storm to knock out Allison and the Conservatives here.
Yes the Liberals and Greens are struggling to find candidates just as they did in 2011, but will Trudeau run nearly as bad a campaign nationally as Ignatieff? Likewise the previous NDP candidate Heatley was fairly well known I don't think Rahman is much of an improvement in fact his name recognition and profile will likely be less as this is his first time around.
I will say there is a barely possible chance that the Liberal and Green support plummets and goes to the NDP en masse with a possible CPC slide with Christian Heritage/Libertarians playing spoiler. Likely the NDP would have to rack up crushing victories in Grimsby while doing just well enough in the rest of the riding to win.
The rural parts of the riding just aren't NDP friendly and there is a sizable elderly and religious population which will lean CPC.
Allison in 2004 managed to beat Debbie Zimmerman(a downright star candidate) with the Conservatives polling worse in Ontario than they are now. Add in a decade of incumbency and weaker opposition candidates and as of now I just can't see it going anything but Conservative. Though I do remain open to changing my mind should their be an absolute plummeting of Conservative support in the campaign.
15 07 08 ME
The Greens cannot find a candidate..The previous candidate who had run several times wants out...Also, the Liberals lost their intended candidate..and must choose a second tier candidate. I also live in the riding and there is a sense of time for a change in the air. Dean would be well advised to stand down and get his pension at age 55 vs 65.
15 06 28 ME
Dean Alison is running robocalls into the riding...IMHO this indicates he knows he is in for a competitive race...OTOH he needs to consider Freedom 55 vs 65 and out...Harper is signing off on the trade deal which will see out the Diary and Poultry sectors which will put this riding in play...
15 06 27 D.M.
I live in this riding the demographics just aren't very good for the NDP here. The candidate isn't anywhere near as good as the one commenter pointed out, he hasn't lived in the riding for long and seems like an oppourtunist. The Unions put everything they had iunto here during the provincial election and Hudak still won and the boundaries are even friendlier to Allison.
Being an energy policy advisor to the Ontario Liberals will go down like a lead balloon here. I suppose there is a miniscule chance he could take the riding if the Liberal and Green vote utterly collapsed and went to him but I just don't see it.
If the Conservatives lose this riding they are heading for a wipeout nation wide.
15 06 22 ME
The NDP candidate was a senior energy advisor to Leader Notley...and has been involved in 15 campaigns for the NDP...Dean Alison needs to think about Freedom 55 ...
15 06 15
The NDP candidate is qualified individual but it is interesting that he has worked for the PC government in Alberta and most recently the Liberals in Ontario. Now he is an NDP candidate. Can you say opportunist!
15 06 05 ME
The NDP are nominating a very good candidate on June 7th..Dean Alison will have to work to hold on to his riding. The Liberals had hoped to nominate a previous Liberal candidate who did well..She is not available and the Liberals are stuck looking for a good candidate..
15 03 25 D.M.
Safe Conservative seat, and likely will be even after Allison retires as he's a fairly low profile M.P.(This is also Hudak's seat provincially.)
Redistribution helps the Conservatives slightly as an NDP friendly area north of Hamilton is eliminated and more rural CPC supporting areas are added.
15 03 24 JC
This is a pretty safe conservative seat. I think it stays that way until Allison retires.

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