Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Nickel Belt

Prediction Changed
2015-03-17 23:42:25

Constituency Profile


Gravelle, Claude

Laamanen, Aino

McCall, Stuart

Serré, Marc G.

Starbuck, Dave

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 590.13%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Nickel Belt
   (222/222 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Claude Gravelle


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15 10 17 NJam101
CTV Northern Ontario-Oracle Poll for this district:
Among decided voters:
Gravelle (NDP) 46%
Serré (LPC) 35%
Laamanen (CPC) 14%
McCall (GPC) 5%
15 10 15 Jeff S
Oracle poll has NDP up 46-35 over the LPC. This one will stay orange.
15 10 06 NJam101
I still see Gravelle getting just over half of the votes. I do feel that Liberal candidate Marc Serre will come in second and the CPC's Aino Laamanen will be far behind. The NDP is still strong in Northern Ontario.
15 08 29 A.S.
Given the political family bloodlines of their nominee, the Libs *do* seem to be making at least a ghost of a 'serious run'--which might be good for some solid anchoring in Sturgeon Falls. Trouble is, the eponymous heart of the seat's settled into being more like Ontario's answer to Easington in the UK, i.e. NDP by the shovelful. Try as one might, you can't get a red tail to wag this orange dog.
15 05 28 R.O.
Although the ndp may or may not have a hard time holding onto Sudbury this riding should be an ndp hold for current mp Claude Gravelle . its unlike liberals or conservatives would be able to make a serious run here at this time .
15 04 07 NJam101
Gravelle win definitely win again and likely with just over half of the votes. I agree that the Liberal vote will be higher but am not sure if it will be all that much higher than last time. It really depends on how the national campaign goes.
Right now it seems as though the NDP hasn't angered anyone as the CPC is in power federally and the Liberals provincially. So any anger towards either government will only help the NDP and Gravelle.
15 03 27 Dr Bear
Popular NDP incumbent in a riding that usually swings NDP. It'll be an easy hold for the Dippers.
15 03 17 DT
Gravelle should be easily re-elected, as he is personally very popular throughout the riding. He is also very present, as is his provincial counterpart. While the Liberals may have a vote increase, it won't be to the detriment of the NDP. Also, the riding tends to re-elected incumbents. I feel that this will repeat itself this time around.

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Canada Federal Election - 2015
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