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| ||15 10 19
|It is actually ridiculously simple to predict this riding. It will stay Liberal and there is no doubt about it. Those who say 'Ottawa Vanier is like Ottawa Centre because it has a university and some yuppie neighbourhoods' betray a lack of experience in Ottawa politics and also a youthful optimism not yet challenged by pragmatic numeric political realities. History does not begin with the unusual numbers of the 2011 election, redistributed to make Ottawa-Vanier seem closer.|
It just is not.
Ottawa-Vanier has been federally and provincially RED for a LONG time. It is the type of riding where the initial Liberal nomination is the single-toughest campaign the liberal candidate has to face in their career.
Ottawa-Vanier obviously 'survived' the Orange Crush of 2011. This was one of 34 Liberal seats of 308 that held up in that debacle. How could it possibly now fall in 2015?
REMINDER! In 2011, Michael Ignatieff was a weak communicator (like Dion before him) and WEAKENED by the Conservative ad campaign. Meanwhile Jack Layton was SYMPATHIQUE in every sense of the word. And PM Harper was relatively strong and asking Canadians for a strong stable majority blah blah yadda yadda. RESULT (redistributed) 38% LIB and pretty close NDP-CON tie around 28% each. So that was still a 10% margin in one of the worst Liberal election dynamics EVER.
So let's look at 2015.
BIGGEST FACTOR: Justin TRUDEAU. The name will matter in a place like Ottawa-Vanier. Replacing Ignatieff. Meanwhile Tom Mulcair is not symapthique Jack Layton that voters 'would like to have a beer with.' Trudeau probably wins that category too. So give about 5 points back to the Liberals.
POLLS: Favouring Liberals nationally, in Ontario especially, and generally locally in Ottawa. Give them a couple of extra points that way too.
INCUMBENCY: This advantage has been Mauril Belanger's for a long time now. Perhaps too long but there is really no reason to turf him, either.
RESIDENCY: Emilie Tamman (NDP) resides in Old Ottawa South. That's documented in what was a complimentary column by David Reevely in the Ottawa Citizen. Old Ottawa South is in Ottawa CENTRE. Psst! It is helpful to reside where you run. Basically, it is too bad there is an entrenched NDP candidate MP in Ottawa Centre.
ROOKIE ERRORS: Despite the LONG campaign, due to her own federal public servant political participation hassles (on which I have strong opinions), and its actual lack of winnability in the grand scheme of things, this was a LATE NOMINATION for the NDP. So it took a LONG time. I think they sacrificed the August portion of the campaign and really only got their stuff going in the 'After Labour Day' traditional portion that was expected leading to the fixed date of October 19. [This was a bit of a factor for the whole national NDP campaign, too] I first saw her pamphlet delivered to my address on October 7. There was to be a candidate debate for my 'hoods that night. It was a nice glossy pamphlet but it TOTALLY LACKED GOOD LOCAL CONTENT and it TOTALLY UNDERPLAYED the CANDIDATE in favour of LEADER stuff, attacks on the CONS and a small space stating Justin Trudeau was not up for the job. But the polls had shifted 2-3 weeks prior to me getting this ill-advised pamphlet. Is Mulcair even still testing better than Trudeau since, say, October?
The glossy had very little to tell me about the strong and competent candidate. Then, on FRIDAY OCTOBER 16, our household mailbox (already showing a red lawn sign) received TWO NDP Tamman pamphlets. I'm thinking there are two possible reasons that we got two pamphlets. 1. Someone decided to leave two here in an affront to the red sign my address already displays; or 2. It was a mailing campaign and we got two because we are two public servants affiliated with two public service unions who gave our addresses to the NDP lists. This pamphlet with letter in it, was better in terms of much more information and sense of the candidate, but it was still too much about values and not quite enough about relevant local Ottawa-Vanier issues.
Too bad our household (and others around us) voted in the advance polls Oct 9-10-11-12.
SIGN BATTLE. This has been competitive. If public corners and boulevards could vote all three candidates would fare well. Tom Mulcair would also score well here based on the NDP-Tamman sign campaign. I will never quite figure that out. Here is a good local candidate reducing her own brand by attaching to the brand and beard that are about to fail. I guess it seemed like a good strategy at the outset. I also hope that lots of voters in Ottawa Vanier will get confused when they cannot actually mark a ballot for Tom Mulcair because his signs have been associated with Tamman signs without enough Ottawa-Vanier reference to confuse inexperienced voters. In the future I am going to try to find some sign strategy science on this tactic. Personally I think it is clutter and confusing. Conservative Candidate Picini is the usual staffer type (Former public servant apparently) being sacrificed in Ottawa-Vanier. I think his end of the deal was a full portrait on his late campaign big signs, for visibility and name recognition in the future. I also read online somewhere that he is an approved 'pro-life' Conservative candidate and former public servant before becoming a political exempt staff policy advisor. But those are tangents. On actual voting household lawn signs, again it looks competitive to me but every so often, I think a street has 2 Belanger LIB signs, one NDP, one CON. There are pockets where it varies and one party candidate dominates a street for signs. But it is usually offset on the next street over by a similar situation. The most sturdy construction was Liberal. NDP second. Conservatives third, or possibly, vandalized most often.
NAME and BALLOT POSITION:
Advantage Mauril BELANGER for incumbency, still relevant francophone name for Vanier, Sandy Hill, uOttawa, etc. It also will be highest on the ballot among all contenders.
PICCINI will appear in the middle.
TAMMAN will appear last. ('Arbour' would have appeared first, and potentially had a little more impact in terms of both francophone value and name recognition). I don't fret for Emilie Tamman though. She will likely be a very good legislative/legal advisor within the Ottawa-based NDP apparatus; after this candidate experience and the loss of her public service job as a federal prosecutor. Overall, that's too bad for the public service.
Lib 45% (+7%)
NDP 25% (-3%)
CON 20% (-8%)
GREEN 6% (roughly stable maybe up a tad)
ALL OTHERS 4%. The Libertarians and their candidate Coreen Corcoran got a blue with yellow sign campaign up late in the campaign, and I also spotted a '15% flat tax' message. So the Libertarian candidate will take more of that last 4% than Chistian Legeais will. I have not seen that name every until seeing it here on electionprediction.org today.
TOMORROW WILL TELL.
Written after midnight on Sunday October 18th. One sleep until E-DAY.
| ||15 09 12
|I do think for now this seat is likely to be a Liberal hold considering it was one of 30-something seats to stay red when they hit their floor in 2011. NDP can make it interesting but I don't spend enough time in this riding to make an assumption of a strong NDP push.|
| ||15 09 08
|Belanger has been MP here for 20 yrs. I think that continues again here.|
| ||15 08 19
|A look at past federal election results for this riding show the Liberals will clearly win, but their lead will continue to erode slowly, probably due to slow demographic change. The NDP will likely pick up their highest showing yet, mirroring their popularity federally, but it won't be enough to win the seat, nor can the Conservatives squeak in through vote splitting.|
| ||15 08 16
|As I said below in my earlier post in the Spring, I agree that there is NDP potential here after the solid 2nd place finish in 2011, but I'm not sure that the NDP is in the running for 2015 unless they put up bigger numbers.|
The NDP are doing fine in Ontario so far, but the Liberals are also up from 2011, while the Conservatives are down, and that may benefit MP Mauril Bélanger the most.
I wouldn't say the race here is that high-profile yet, although there have been a few articles in The Ottawa Citizen regarding whether a prosecutor like Emilie Taman should have to step down before running for office.
We also have to keep in mind that the NDP hasn't had the nomination yet, but it will be held later this month. Whether the NDP nominee is Emilie Taman or not, that person will be getting a bit of a late start against Mauril Bélanger.
| ||15 08 10
|This riding is one to watch, and given high-profile attention I expect we will eventually see a riding poll done here.|
It has been making national news since federal prosecutor and daughter of Louise Arbour, Emilie Taman, is running for the NDP and was just very publicly fired from the public sector for doing so. This makes her a sympathetic candidate, up against a long time and low profile incumbent who lacks charisma.
Ottawa-Vanier is a traditional Liberal riding that is automatically expected to stay that way, but so was Hull-Aylmer and many adjacent ridings in 2011.
| ||15 08 08
|I still think the liberals have the advantage here as Mauril Belanger running for re election and been mp for a while. However I could definity see the ndp having potential in this urban riding. Its similar to Ottawa centre and just across the river from Gatineau seats they also hold. There vote has also grown in the riding over the years . but feel its more likely to stay liberal for time being |
| ||15 08 04
|While Ottawa-Vanier has been held by the Liberals since its creation in 1935, it is the riding in Ottawa that is most ripe for an NDP breakthrough. This riding is full of the 'liberally minded' and after half a century the NDP looks to be in a position to capture that group. Federal prosecutor (and daughter of Louise Arbour) Emilie Taman is planning to run for the NDP here. This is a race to watch. |
| ||15 07 27
|TCTC. U of O's numbers have been going up, on average, about 5% a year since the last election. This is a very left-leaning student population, much more than some others. As long as the election takes place after Labour day, this will be very close, especially with the NDP at 33% across the country. |
| ||15 07 16
|As much as the NDP are rallying Vanier as winnable, I do not see the case. This is safe Liberal territory and even the Orange Crush this riding has a sizable Lib margin of victory.|
| ||15 07 05
|With the support of the Liberals for Bill C-51, that might be just enough to tip this riding for the NDP, given the fact that they lost by only 4700 votes in 2011.|
With the rise in NDP support over the past few months equaled by the drop in Liberal support, this prediction should become T.C.T.C. in my opinion.
| ||15 05 17
|The NDP is already taking it to the Liberals in a big way in Lower Town and Sandy Hill while the Tories have been doing better in Blair, Beacon Hill, and Rockcliffe Park.|
With the Town of Vanier, the City of Gloucester, and their Liberal nomenklatura barely registering as a memory for many people these days, the time has come for the Francophone vote in this riding to join its counterparts in Northern Ontario and Quebec in supporting progressive alternatives to the decrepit Liberal machine.
Inertia will probably keep this riding Liberal, but an NDP pick-up is not out of the question if that coward Belanger does not change course on C-51.
| ||15 03 29
|Although it's true that the Liberals have been gradually losing ground here over the past 25 years, I don't think they'll sink any further than they did in 2011 at this point. The riding is very socioeconomically diverse, and the Liberal party is the only party that has widespread support throughout the different regions. The NDP has strength in Sandy Hill, Lowertown, and some parts of Vanier; and the Tories have some strength in Rockcliffe and Beacon Hill North; but both parties fare very poorly in other regions of the riding. As a result, things would have to go very poorly for the Liberals nation wide for this to even be competitive.|
| ||15 03 28
|Indeed, Ottawa-Vanier seems to be a stubborn urban Liberal holdout from the blue tide that claimed francophone-heavy rural/exurban ridings Stormont and Glengarry. I expect the Liberal margin to drift back into the mid-40s but these types of ridings may never again achieve their Chretien-era tallies, not as long as there is a strong, unified Conservative party in existence.|
| ||15 03 26
|Liberal, but I'm not sure if it's 'solidly Liberal' anymore. Belanger fell below 40% in 2011. Back in the 1990's during the Chrétien years, this was one of the safest Liberal seats in Ontario and would vote 60% Liberal. Now Belanger is winning by a smaller margin than his Liberal colleague McGuinty in Ottawa South. Belanger also wins by smaller margins than his provincial counterpart, Liberal MPP Madeleine Meilleur, who wins by over 50%. However, at this point in time with the Liberals appearing to be well up in Ontario from 2011, and with neither the NDP nor the Conservatives having a candidate yet, Belanger is probably secure for another election.|
| ||15 03 22
|Has been solidly Liberal for a long time. Going to stay that way, especially with Liberal support rising compared to 2011 (hard for them to do worse than in the previous election!).|
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