Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Richmond Hill

Prediction Changed
2015-09-07 22:36:38

Constituency Profile


DeVita, Adam

Jowhari, Majid

Parsa, Michael

Veenema, Gwendolyn

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 40.01%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Richmond Hill
   (202/217 polls, 95.91% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Costas Menegakis

   (15/217 polls, 4.09% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Peter Kent


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15 10 04 Dr. Bear
A close-ish race in 2011 would result in a Liberal win in 2015 (with current polling numbers). The CPC would need a really strong candidate to overcome the current trends here.
15 09 05 R.O.
This riding has no incumbent as some new ridings were created in the gta and mp Costas Menagakis is running in another York region riding. So its an open race with some new candidates for liberals and conservatives as well is an ndp candidate who has run a few times here. However it likely remains a race between liberals and conservativs as ndp doesn't win ridings in this area. Its one of the more urban York region ridings and has often been a close race in recent years. I'd say its too close to call for time being
15 09 02 Nick M
905 voters are bigtime swing voters. If provincial polls say a 10 percent swing from party A to Party B, that means it'll be a 20 percent swing. Therefore this is an Easy Liberal. And I believe the other tidings should be called too close to call.
15 08 16 Swellow
This is too close to call right now. Both major candidates are Persian and neutralise that vote. Will be interesting on election night.
15 08 09 R.F.
This riding is traditionally Liberal. It took an election where nearly everything went the Conservatives way in order for the Conservatives to win.
Compared to the previous election, the Conservatives are lower in the polls and the Liberals are higher. The Conservatives have no incumbent, and the riding tends to have a low vote total for the NDP which reduces any centre-left vote splitting. The riding is also solidly Liberal at the provincial level and the more right-leaning mayoral candidate lost the municipal election badly (although there were many reasons for that).
I think the Conservatives could overcome some of these things but not all of them, and the Liberals will take the riding back. I said last time around that if Richmond Hill went Conservative, it would mean the Conservatives had a major breakthrough and would likely have a majority. That was indeed the case (although I didn't predict the breakthrough would actually happen!) I feel the same way again - if Richmond Hill goes to the Conservatives it means they likely have another majority, or at least a very strong minority.
15 08 07 Follow The Numbers
It is telling that the incumbent Conservative MP decided to jump ship and move to a 'safer' riding. He must have seen some internal polling that indicated he couldn't win here. That might be the case here as the polls now indicate that this is a Liberal lead. The Conservatives have an uninspiring candidate and this will be a Liberal gain.
15 08 03 Docere
With current polling trends, Richmond Hill looks like the only likely pickup for the Liberals in York Region. But the Tories could still hang on here.
15 07 23 Prime Predictor
CPC was smart to prevent LPC domination of the Persian vote here. Both candidates are hard workers, and Parsa is very likeable. TTC. Slight Liberal edge, but CPC can win this if the federal camapaign is strong.
15 07 11 A.S.
I wouldn't use newspaper names as a benchmark for political persuasion; in fact, going back to 1988's infamous annulled-recount maiden election for Mauizio Bevilacqua in Vaughan, Richmond Hill (which was then, *in toto*, part of that sprawling political entity) was solidly in the *PC* camp. Right now, as an open seat, looks a typical 905 Lib-PC draw, while the NDP candidate's had a pattern of underperforming by ex-municipal-councillor standards. (Unfortunately, a quarter century of aspirational ethnoburban sprawl works against him--*old* Richmond Hill, however, has long had a certain 50s/60s CMHC-funded Reform/NDP-populist undercurrent.)
15 07 06 Stevo
I'm not generally a big believer in vote splitting analysis, except when patently obvious (example: Leeds-Grenville in the 2000 election). However, the weakness of the Liberals combined with the NDP surge in English Canada (remember, the Orange Crush in 2011 was a Quebec anomaly) may well lead to the Conservatives losing once impenetrable seats in Alberta while hanging on in Liberal-leaning swing ridings like Richmond Hill. The candidates here are pretty non-descript, so the national campaigns will mean everything.
15 06 13 Bryan
Richmond Hill has traditionally been a Liberal riding (even the local newspaper is called 'The Liberal') and the Liberals and NDP have both nominated good candidates. The NDP, however, doesn't have much traction here. The Conservative incumbent has fled the riding for a safer seat, apparently, and we await the replacement candidate, but odds are the town will return to its customary political stripe. Greens have not nominated.
15 04 17 RJC
Incumbent MP Menegakis abandoned this seat to run in the new (and more Tory-friendly) Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill seat. The 2011 notionals have this one reasonably close in 2011, so assuming Trudeau doesn't pull an Iggy, the Liberals should be taking this one back.
15 03 24 JC
Open Seat and the Liberal should easily win this.

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