Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Toronto-St. Paul's

Prediction Changed
2015-03-19 18:33:42

Constituency Profile


Bennett, Carolyn

Farmer, Kevin

MacDougall, Marnie

Richler, Noah

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 2670.54%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   St. Paul's
   (212/214 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Carolyn Bennett


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15 10 13 Mark
Seems like the high water polling for the NDP in August and early September brought shy partisans out of the shadows. But now NDP signs are coming down, like the ones that used to be across and beside the Liberal office, or NDP lawn signs are now sharing space with Liberal signs. Bennett will crack 50, Richler will be lucky to hit 20.
15 10 08 Dr. Bear
A Conservative call is silly. The CPC numbers are way down from 2011. They don't have a 3K vote gap to fill; they have a 3K PLUS the general drop in support from 2011. They would need a star candidate with mega-name recognition to win this long-time Liberal stronghold. No dice CPC, this stays red.
15 10 08 MBM
I live in this riding and I have voted Conservative in almost every election in my lifetime, but come on, let's be realistic here. While Dr. Bennett won in 2011 by only 3,800 votes instead of her usual 15,000, the 2011 Liberal campaign was a dumpster fire from the get go. I may be wrong here, but personally, I see no evidence that the Conservatives are better organized here this time around. When I pass by their campaign office daily, it always looks like a ghost town, and I have yet to see Ms. MacDougall out canvassing, nor I have I received a phone call or a knock on my door from her. And with the Liberals polling higher in Ontario and in Toronto this year, it's a very safe bet that this seat will belong to Carolyn Bennett until she decides to retire. The Conservatives may save one or two of their seats in the 416, but as far as gaining St. Paul's is concerned, sorry folks, it just isn't going to happen.
15 10 09 The Jackal
If the CPC had a chance to win this seat it would have been 2011. With the Liberals polling well in Ontario I call this a hold for Dr.Bennet.
15 10 08 PaDu
I agree that the Liberals must be having some late warnings that it isn't as simple at the last few times. Just a couple of days ago I noticed Bennett having her picture up in the announcement screen in the Eglinton subway station (an ineffective and dreary little thing = waste of money). Then last night I received a phone call on her behalf by a human, a definite improvement over the recorded type of earlier on which I regularly hang up. But the girl at the other end was a paid inexperienced last minute resource. On my street there is one Lib sign - no others. Usually I see a multitude of Libs and one or two of the others. All that points to a drying up of the enthusiasm for Bennett.
But the others don't seem to inherit it. I haven't seen either of the candidates. From each I received today pamphlets that distinguish themselves more through the quality of the paper than substantial content.
As a disaffected small-c conservative I am disgusted by the succession of sacrificial lamb candidates we have been offered instead of building up one of future potential by re-running him/her repeatedly. The present candidate - a minor political hand-maiden - simply is not the stuff to sweep centrists to her.
The NDP at least offers us a candidate with some real profile and personal ability. Is that enough to make up for Mulcair's mis-steps? I don't know.
But I simply cannot see either beating Bennett no matter how overdue her retirement is.
15 10 07 MichaelC
I'm with Billy on this one. The Conservatives are far better organized in St. Paul's than they have been in any election here for a long time. The candidate has been everywhere and only needs to close a 3000 vote gap with the Liberals, which the NDP are doing for her. Its going to be a tight finish, but this could be the year that we finally say good bye to Dr. Bennett. I might be wrong, but its going to be a fun election night to sit back and watch the votes come in.
15 10 07 jeff316
Well they got the message and the boots have hit the ground. The Liberals have picked it up and the NDP/Liberal sign ratio is back to a more respectable 50/50. (Not that this affects the race at all.) Richler is really gunning for it, but he'll still end up third. The Conservative post below is complete fiction - there is not a single Conservative sign on Vaughan Road, and I counted all of nine Conservative signs between Bathurst and the western boundary of the riding.
15 10 05 Monkey Cheese
Conservative partisans are smoking something if they think they'll win here. The reason why the Liberals lost voter share the past couple of elections was because of weak leaders and an effective CPC smear campaign. Now that the Liberals are doing much better, have a stronger leader, and the smear campaign isn't as effective this time around, there's little chance for the Conservatives will win here. They are more likely pooling their downtown Toronto resources to fight to hold on to what they have (even those seats are likely to go Liberal) rather than win a Liberal stronghold. The NDP are also decreasing in the polls, even in Toronto. They have a good candidate with Noah Richler, but their best chance at this riding was in 2011, not 2015 when the NDP are heading for a crushing third place. Easy Liberal hold. It's the fight for second place that will be the real interesting competition in this riding.
15 10 03 Billy
I know it's a bit of a long shot, but this time it can go CPC, for a number of reasons.
Carolyn Bennetts vote share has been on a steady decline for 3 election cycles. Whatever 'base' she has from the incumbency effect is not as steady as it was.
Noah Richler is a good candidate. Coming from a background of academia, journalism and the arts, I imagine he isn't having a difficult time raising the funds that Bennet or MacDougall are (St Pauls conservatives is the eight wealthiest Tory EDA). That monetary advantage is somewhat alleviated. He has name recognition, and I've seen this man talk: he is eloquent and well spoken, and if he's going door to door, I imagine he has potential to change some minds. In a lot of areas there are big Orange signs, way more than Red.
The areas in the West End that were once bathed in read around election time are COVERED in Orange and dotted with blue. All along the west end its NDP covered lawns, and even in the areas that are not conservative, there is a consistent presence of blue, even along Dufferin and Vaughan. These are areas that Bennett held on to by maybe 10% last time.
Some comments here have alluded to the fact that the riding is populated by wealthy educated elites. I understand how those people who may have voted liberal could see themselves in Dion or Ignatieff or even Bennett, but not Trudeau. Trudeau does not command respect. Even in Liberal circles he is the subject of ridicule. Of course these people will not vote Conservative, but I see less Liberals donating, volunteering, and ultimately, voting on Election Day for someone like Justin Trudeau. And aside from that, some votes can be bled to the NDP because of the C51 issue. I think it started in university rosedale where the candidate has 'repeal C51' signs that go on top of campaign signs, which have made their way into St Paul's. That will take away liberal votes, but not conservative. That is unless Bennett is going door to door explaining her stance on C51, which she isn't. In my opinion floundering around subway stations is a poor way to campaign.
Then there is the Conservative candidate. Last time the CPC candidate had 37 days to campaign. Getting around to every door is just not humanly possible in that time. This CPC candidate has been knocking on doors since October according to the campaign page, and it shows. Forrest hill is as usual an ocean of blue dotted in red. All along Forrest Hill, Russell Hill and Dunvegan it's only blue signs. And that reverberates onto avenue, Oriole, glen cedar and strathearn. The areas that went dark blue in 2011 I don't think would swing back to red in proportions that people here are anticipating.
Then there is the population of Jewish voters here. While not as nominally conservative has thornhill, the endless gaffes by liberal candidates during last years Israel-gaza conflict has probably widened the gap between support for LPC and CPC among Jewish voters. It might be marginal, but it's a factor.
Then you have the riding redistribution. A area that leans LPC was lobbed off and given to don valley west. It's not a big deal, but now the difference is only 3000 votes. I think an NDP and CPC candidate this strong can divide that up. And let's say only the NDP and CPC candidate is going door to door. There are tones of new Canadian voters (nullifying any incumbency effect) on the west end who will vote for whoever knocks on their doors and takes an interests in their lives.
The liberal areas are not so liberal this time around. Rathnelly, Casa Loma, wychwood,and Deer Park do not have as many Liberal signs as last time. They don't have that many from CPC or NDP, but for areas that Bennett held on to last time they seem rather depopulated of any party signs.
I see a truly three way race. But in those instances where the NDP have never even come in second like many Toronto seats, vote splitting means CPC get a slim win.
15 10 03 PY
The recent surfacing of Noah Richler's unfortunate Internet comments might not do him in, but I think it could be Lawrence Martin's in the Globe and Mail (a newspaper of record, if I'm not mistaken) that could have a chilling effect on his campaign (and likely that of Andrew Thomson in Eglinton--Lawrence, to the north of the riding).
As such, Carolyn Bennett's a dead cert here, having survived the 'orange wave' four years ago with grace and aplomb.
With apologies to longtime TSN broadcaster Vic Rauter, 'make the final!'
15 09 29 JRW
ML has the typical St. Paul's voter pegged perfectly, or to quote the Kinks 'and their oh so good and their oh so fine'. An easy hold for Dr. Bennett. BTW to those who predict an NDP win in this riding, 'whatever you're smoking - - - I want some.'
15 09 25 Mark
St. Paul's is full of orange - south of Vaughan Road, west of Bathurst. But that's only a portion of the riding - there is a whole swath fo this riding that is uber rich and uber residential and no one on this site seems to be hanging out in those areas - Deer Park, north Moore Park, the Yonge corridor particularly. And there is lots of red interspersed in this NDP prone areas. Let's get real - Forest Hill is not voting NDP. Richter may be doing better than past candidates but I can guarantee you of anyone without a lawnsign, 70 percent of those will vote Liberal in this riding.
15 09 25 Nick M.
The primary swing voter in this riding is CPC-Liberal voter. expect Liberals to gain big at the expense of CPC in this riding. This swing vote to Liberals this election will prevent the NDP from slipping in.
15 09 23 Josh
Something is happening in this riding, and I'm going to go against a) my first prediction and b) against the grain here.
There is a surge of NDP lawn signs on private property across the riding. A lot of these are on homes that have had Liberal signs provincially in last year's election or have never put up a sign in the past. I've also noticed the Liberal campaign canvassing areas that never usually get door-to-door attention; a sign that perhaps they're running in a tighter race than Bennett is used to.
Something is shifting in this riding, and I just have a feeling it's going to (closely) swing to the NDP.
15 09 21 R.O.
I'd be surprised if the liberals didn't hold St Pauls its been a pretty solid liberal riding for a long time and Carolyn Bennett still running. But downtown Toronto does seem to be an area where the ndp is polling well and they might do well in this riding. It also appears to be less of a tory target this year and 2011 candidate Maureen Harquail is running in don valley east instead .
15 09 18 Tim R
In the last week, I've been shocked by the number of Noah Richler lawn signs and the lack of Carolyn Bennett signs. I've lived in this riding since 1995 and come election it's always a see of Red this election it's a sea of orange.
15 09 16 ML
Despite the recent Mainstreet poll that showed that the NDP is polling ahead of the Liberals in the old city limits, I just can't see the NDP pulling off a victory in St. Paul's. Bennett and the Liberals appeal to riding demo perfectly: upper-middle class, high-consumption and bourgeois wine and cheese types. The type of crowd that supports issues like public transit and carbon caps, but whose eyes glaze over when the NDP talk about labour rights or social justice. Even with the NDP selecting somewhat of a 'star' candidate, I don't think it will be enough to topple Bennett.
15 09 18 Josh
To the previous submission, in the east end of the riding there are also a significant number of NDP signs - the campaign has certainly upped its game from previous runs. That said, they're in the race with the Tories for second place. Bennett will still be reelected.
15 09 14 jeff316
I certainly would never suggest anything other than a Liberal win here; the demographics are just too perfect - everything from the upper-crust money of Moore Park to upper-middle class yuppies of Humewood and Hillcrest, remnant Italians and Portuguese along Dupont and Oakwood and Filipinos the hug the Vaughan corridor all just scream 'Liberal!'. But I don't doubt that Carolyn Bennett and her team are still freaking out over the fact that the NDP candidate is outsigning them three-to-one in the western third of the riding. (But it won't matter in the end.)
15 09 09 Marco Ricci
I'm not sure this seat is the safest Liberal seat in the universe since at the Federal level it is less safe than it is Provincially, but obviously it is very heavily leaning Liberal at this point.
Dr. Carolyn Bennett doesn't get numbers as high as her provincial counterpart, Dr. Eric Hoskins, but at the moment seat projection sites like 308 show this seat as having a 94% chance of going Liberal. Despite the NDP 'star candidate' here, the rising Liberal numbers in Ontario look good for Dr. Bennett.
15 09 04 Tony Ducey
One of the more Liberal seats in the country. They could run a dog here and win the seat.
15 08 29 Mark
Wealthy, urban, and very upper-middle class, St Paul's voters fancy themselves to sophisticated to vote NDP and too smart to vote Conservative. The Liberals could release a stink bomb in the middle of the Wychwood Farmers Market and still win this riding.
15 08 11 Marco Ricci
I'm not sure if I'd call Noah Richler a 'star candidate'. He has some profile in the arts & journalism, but I'm not sure he is a household name that will move large numbers of votes in the way that Adam Vaughan did for the Liberals in the Trinity-Spadina by-election last year.
The NDP finished 3rd in this riding during the Layton Wave in 2011, and also finishes 3rd here provincially, well behind Carolyn Bennett's provincial counterpart, Eric Hoskins. However, it's certainly possible that Richler could get a higher score than former NDP 'star candidate' Paul Summerville.
The Forum Poll conducted in the GTA after last week's Leader's Debate also showed the Trudeau Liberals in 1st, so Liberal numbers may be going back up in Toronto.
15 07 30 Josh
While the NDP may have nominated a star candidate, it won't flip the riding. Bennett will hold the seat, even if Liberal numbers continue to tank.
15 07 11 ME
The NDP have found a a star candidate ..Noah Richler who will flip this riding.
15 07 09 Torontonian
Noah Richler is contesting the NDP nomination for St Paul's and will surely win it. The NDP have also said they will put resources into the riding.
The Liberals are still in the driver's seat, but if their national and provincial numbers keep tanking even this riding could come into play, with the NDP drawing votes away from them. Interesting!
15 07 01 HFoster
An interesting riding in which both the NDP and Conservatives are irrelevant. This is probably the safest Liberal seat in Toronto, and Carolyn Bennett has been here for nearly two decades. The NDP have yet to hold a nomination meeting, but unless they get a candidate with high name recognition (of the likes of local NDP-backed City Councillor Joe Mihevc), this riding will likely stay Liberal through 2015.
15 05 28 seasaw
One of the easiest ridings to predict. It should and will stay Liberal. The CPC can win this riding under the right circumstances, and they are: If they were to win a bigger majority ( slight chance ), if they have the right candidate ( they don't ) and the right campaign ( remains to be seen ). They have to have all three and they don't, so no chance. Add to it the fact that Dr. Bennett's done an amazing job for the past 18 years, so it will be a Liberal win.
I don't know why people are comparing Bennett to Anders and Ford, she's nothing like them. She may sometime come across as abrasive, but she's a very intelligent woman and an excellent MP. Also, to A.S, many people in Ontario, would take the VanderZalm to Wynne comparison as an insult to VanderZalm.
15 04 23 Docere
The epicenter of 'limousine liberalism' in Canada - St. Paul's is too educated to vote Conservative, too bourgeois to vote NDP. If the Liberals were reduced to a dozen seats nationwide this would be one of them - even in the 2011 meltdown they held on to St. Paul's by a quite comfortable margin. Its representatives in Ottawa and at Queen's Park - Carolyn Bennett, MD and Eric Hoskins, MD, PhD - fit the riding profile perfectly.
Carolyn Bennett doesn't strike me as particularly bombastic either - so I don't really get the Rob Anders comparison.
15 04 09 A.S.
Even if Dr. CB's 2006 leadership bid was rather baldly abortive and even if her campaigns have been regularly prone to sympathy-vote-caressing supporter-tire-slashing incidents, let's be clear here: she's the classic midtown-Toronto Liberal progressive and fits this Laurentian-elite-epicentre seat like a glove (all the more so with the eclipse of the old-time federal PCs), and to refer to her as a 'Liberal Rob Anders' is like equating Premier Wynne to Bill Vander Zalm, i.e. the sort of conclusion that's best left to Sun News nutters with an axe to grind. Now, *Hedy Fry* I can understand; but Carolyn Bennett? Uh-uh. (Besides, the likelier local 'Liberal Rob Anders' case would be if, say, Giorgio Mammoliti bid to replace a retiring Judy Sgro--and even there, Justin's positioned his party away from such likelihood.)
15 04 05 MGK
Rule of thumb: any riding that voted Liberal in 2011, will vote Liberal until the cows come home.
15 03 28 monkey
Up until 2006 ironically, this was a bellwether riding that always backed the winner, but that was back when the Tories were a lot more centrist. The Tories will probably do well in Forest Hill (which they won last time) but lose elsewhere. In sum, its too urban and educated to go Tory, while too rich to go NDP. It's in many ways a lot like Manhattan in its politics.
15 03 25 Stevo
She's a few cards short of a full deck, a Liberal Rob Anders if you will, and like Anders she is lucky enough to be in an extremely safe seat for her party. Another landslide for Dr. Bennett.
15 03 24 JC
If the Tories couldn't topple Carolyn Bennett during the worst year in Liberal Election History, they won't now. Easy Liberal Hold.
15 03 22 Dr. Bear
The Conservatives have thrown everything at Dr. Bennett over the years and she's held firm. She'll hold the fort again in 2015.
15 03 18 MH
The Conservatives couldn't beat Carolyn Bennett in 2011 and they won't beat her in 2015. St Paul's has been a safe Liberal seat since 1993. Aside from that, the Conservative message is unlikely to appeal to the well-educated and upper-middle class voters of the riding.
15 03 18 Craig Hubley
Hold for 'Dr. Mom' Carolyn Bennett, even without Trudeau and the collapse of the crack-fueled Ford Nation machine.
One of about two dozen Liberal personal merit holds. And a very easy call.

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