Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-03-21 12:46:20

Constituency Profile


Casselman, Laura

Clarke, Kevin

Coulbeck, Paul

Holding, Kathleen

Konkel, Chuck

McKay, John

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 2070.60%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (165/192 polls, 88.24% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. John McKay

   Scarborough Centre
   (27/192 polls, 11.76% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Roxanne James


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15 10 02 Dr. Bear
If it was a Liberal hold in 2011 with a CPC majority and NDP storming through Toronto, then it will stay Liberal in 2015 with the rebounded grits.
15 06 21 A.S.
With Jimmy the K bumping himself to municipal politics, John MacKay's officially the last vestige of the Chretien/Martin Liberals' curious 'Bloc Scarberia' phenomenon--but *how* he survived 2011 is a real psephologist's delight: it's due to the unusual spot circumstance of the Cedarbrae/Cornell Park-zone polls SE of Markham and Lawrence voting landslide Liberal like it was still the Chretien/Martin era, maybe even better than 2008 (who did the Grit canvassing here?!?) Take that freakish retro-red blip away, and ScarGuil would have gone blue. (And bear in mind that prior common wisdom had this the relatively-speaking likeliest Scarb seat to go blue--perhaps because, as per the seat's name, it has a lot of tony Bluffs-side subdivisions influencing perceptions.) As it now stands, MacKay has built-in incumbent advantage; but waning Justinmania suggests that a landslide's less likely now than a more-or-less replay of 2011 (or the 2013 provincial byelection)
15 03 24 Craig Hubley
A much less safe seat than Agincourt but a Liberal with some distance from Trudeau can ride his popularity with ignorant voters while not suffering from his unpopularity with informed voters after inevitable campaign gaffes.
Conservative votes in 416 should shift Liberal for fear of the NDP, as a rule, because no poll or survey shows Conservative incumbents in 416 with safe seats. People who have suffered a Conservative MP and the mailouts that come with it, who find themselves in a position to support a Liberal, will probably take it rather than vote NDP even if they traditionally did.
I predict NDP holds only where they have seats, and not all of those, with a good chunk of Green votes also shifting Liberal either tactically for a swap, 'strategically' as part of a national campaign, or just out of fear of yet another Conservative MP, which was unimaginable in 416 before 2011 but all too real now.
15 03 19 Jason
With current polling trends, if the Liberals won it in 2011 they should be able to easily hold it in 2015.
Incumbent John McKay is popular in the riding, despite his uneasy relationship with Justin Trudeau.

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Canada Federal Election - 2015
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