Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-03-23 23:07:32

Constituency Profile


Fleming, JoAnne

Leitch, Kellie

MacEachern, Mike

Matthews, David

Noordegraaf, Len

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 880715.94%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (236/236 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. K. Kellie Leitch


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15 10 16 Oliver May
My Mother-in-laws riding. The Cons will win here no matter what Harper does. Would require historic collapse to lose here (or in Simcoe-North) which is clearly not going to happen between now and Monday.
15 08 16 A.S.
I won't deny that Leitch *could* face a Duffygate-fueled challenge here--though the more realistic disappointment would be for her to noticably underpoll 2011 even without Guergis undercutting the Con vote (hey: that's what the usually unsinkable Jim Wilson hinted at provincially last year). But re 'closest race we've seen in this riding': that'd have to be a pretty exacting prognosis given how Helena Guergis, in her first race in 2004, exceeded Grit incumbent Paul Bonwick by precisely *one hundred votes*. (And Bonwick first won by less than 500 votes in 1997--otherwise, it would've been Ontario's only Reform seat that year.)
15 08 08 Jim Brant
Liberals were out in Angus and very active with the Alliston Potato festival. Saw Leitch and the cons a little also, but not as active. MacEachern's new office and his presence in the community might pay off. Going to be the closest race we've seen in this riding. Still not sure, but between the Libs and Cons.
15 08 07 seasaw
A couple of ludicrous Liberal prediction, in Simcoe-Grey. The Liberals have to make up about 36%, and had Helena Guergis not ran the last time, it's technically 46%. Kellie Leitch has been a great MP and minister, she's extremely intelligent and possibly a future party leader and PM. For the Liberals to have a chance to defeat her, not only do they have to run a flawless campaign ( so far they're doing ), CPC also has to run a near Campbell type disastrous campaign. I do believe the Liberals will win a lot more seats than the last time, but not seats like this that they lost by 36%.
15 07 31 Peter Logan
Liberals have a strong campaign, and with Mike MacEachern as the candidate they'll be sure to give Leitch a run for her money. From who i've talked with, they like that he was born and raised in the riding. Runs a non-profit employment agency in town and was the New Tecumseth mayor for over a decade. He's got a solid support group and following throughout other parts of the riding as well. I think this could be a 'dark horse' riding with a Liberal win come E-Day. It'll be a nail-bitter, but MacEachern has the best shot to upset the cons.
15 07 31 Peter Logan
Liberals have been putting on a strong campaign in the last few months, and with Mike MacEachern as the candidate it'll be a close race. Runs a non-profit employment agency in New T and was Mayor. Being from the area will really appeal to voters. I think this will be one of the 'dark horse' ridings for the Liberals, but as always time will tell.
15 05 20
Going to be closer than last time with the influx of residents into the major centres. Can't see anything but Conservative though. I suspect the Liberals to take second as they have been campaigning in the area and the NDP have not been very visible. That could change come fall.
15 05 05 R.O.
More than likely a hold for Kellie Leitch, is a pretty conservative riding. Although places like Collingwood and Wasaga Beach have grown a lot and many new residents. Is still a lot of rural areas and smaller towns that actually make up the riding.
15 03 28 monkey
Solid Conservative, might even increase their share of the popular vote as I suspect most who voted for Helena Guergis last time will vote Tory this time.
15 03 23 Dr. Bear
Wasn't this the one Ontario riding that voted for the Reform party in '93? Certainly not going anything but Conservative.

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