Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Simcoe North

Prediction Changed
2015-03-23 23:07:35

Constituency Profile


Banigan, Richard

Kearey-Moreland, Jacob

Riley, Liz

Stanton, Bruce

Stubbins, Peter

Whittaker, Scott

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 3000.58%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Simcoe North
   (230/230 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Bruce Stanton


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15 09 23 Teddy Boragina
I wanted to point out that it is neither true that the Liberals are neck and neck with the Tories (despite the Liberal candidate's campaign website claiming so) nor is it true that the Liberals have 'no shot' here.
I also wanted to explain the claims the Liberals held this riding solidly in the 90's. Remember that during this period we had a split right. Adding the PC and Alliance votes will give us an idea, though not a perfect idea, of the vote here the CPC might be expected to get.
In 2000, the Liberal won here with 50.8% of the vote compared to 43.9% for the right candidates.
In 1997, the margin was 44% for the Liberal to 49.1% for the united right.
And in 1993, the margin was 40.5% for the Liberal compared to 53.9% for the united right.
Lets also remember in 2004, the Liberal defeated the Tory candidate by a margin of 43.4% to 37.7%.
What this tells me is it was not the Liberals who were popular here, but Paul Devillers, who was the Liberal MP for the entire period. As soon as he quit, in 2006, the Tories took the riding.
In terms of lawn signs, so far, I've not seen ANY Liberal or NDP lawn signs in Penetang, but I have seen CPC lawn signs, though, not many.
As an interesting note, this riding was once held by Dalton McCarthy, one of the most right-wing MP's of the 1800s.
15 09 17 The Jackal
Come on the Liberals have no shot here. The recent provincial by-election should be an indicator and the provincial government's plan to sell off Hyrdo One is not going over well here at all and the LPC are getting nervous about it. Plus the spike in Liberal is mostly the 416 and 905 area where they lost ground to the CPC in 2011. Not in rural seats like this
15 09 15 Niccolò Machiavelli
At this point, it is not possible to say, with any certainly, what will happen in Simcoe North. While it has been a Conservative riding since 2006, it was easily held by the Liberals from their 1993 breakthrough until the retirement of MP Paul DeVillers prior to the 2006 election. This includes 2004 election that saw a lot of Liberal incumbents defeated, and their majority reduced to a minority. Even in the 2006 election that saw Stanton elected for the first time, he won by a narrow margin against a low profile Liberal candidate who was nominated two weeks into the writ period.
In this election, Stanton is up against his strongest Liberal challenger yet, Liz Riley, the former CEO & President of the local hospital. She is well-known on the Orillia side of the riding where the Liberals most need to improve their standing in order to win.
Based on factors such as signage, media coverage, chatter on the ground, and the fact that only the Liberals and the Conservatives have opened campaign offices and are running full-fledged campaigns, this is a race between those two parties. The other candidates, including the NDP whose riding association has split and is running an independent candidate against their own perennial candidate, are not really in the game.
According to the Liz Riley's website, a poll conducted in July showed them nipping at the Conservatives' heals in Simcoe North. Since then, the national polls have shown the gap between the Liberals and the Conservatives narrow to a virtual tie. The Ontario regional polls have been showing the Liberals with a consistent lead.
On a final note, the riding is slightly more favourable to the Liberals following redistribution. The area of the riding that was lobbed-off to form the new riding to the south included a lot of strong Conservative polls, so that's a net-benefit to the Liberals.
This riding is in play, but I am calling it a Liberal gain because, at this stage in the game, they are doing well and are bound to be the main beneficiary of the large anti-Harper vote.
15 09 13 Teddy Boragina
A response to LeacockLives!
Orillia does have around 30K people
Midland does have 16K
Penetanguishene does have 10K
Tiny has 11K
Tay has 10K
Both are in the 'Midland Area'. So much so that the 'Midland Mirror' delivers to all 4 regularly, and is trying to take the 'midland' out of their name to better represent the remainder of the area.
Severn has 12K
Ramara has 9K
Oro-Medonte has about 20K, but, only half is in the new riding.
All 3 border Orillia.
So if you want to compare Orillia and Midland, yes, you are correct, but considering that 55%-60% of voters here don't live in either Orillia or Midland-Penetang, I'd say you might want to re-work your math.
In addition, just because 55%-60% of voters live in the eastern 'half' of the riding - defined as the municipalities mentioned, putting the border just west of Coldwater - does not mean Orillia somehow controls the riding. It was simply a comment to help people learn more about the riding.
15 09 10 EB
This district is one of the most Conservative areas of the province. Regardless of shifts in national polling, Bruce Stanton will be victorious.
15 09 07 LeacockLives!
Sorry Teddy, but being new to the area your numbers are way off. There are about 100,000 people in the riding I'm guessing after redistribution, and apparently 85,000 electors. The pop of Orillia is only 30,000, and Penetang/Midland is 25,600 (according to Wikipedia, which isn't great, but trust it's someone accurate). That means while Orillia is about 4400 votes richer its no where near 60%, even if you count in the rural areas around it. A lot of people (about 44,400 by my math) live in the smaller communities and middle of no where that's the rest of the riding. From my travels however there aren't that many in the places around Orillia (Warminster, Udney, Eady, etc.). A lot of these people are in places like Port McNichol, Victoria Harbour, Coldwater, Lafontaine, Wyevale, Port Severn, Christian Island, etc., that are either in the center of the riding or even west of Penetang/Midland. I don't see this effecting the outcome from my previous comment, but thought it worth noting for fact. Orillia, while important, can't pick the candidate on its own. It just doesn't have the numbers.
15 09 04 Teddy Boragina
I live in this riding after moving here a few months ago.
I can confirm that at this time, there are very few lawn signs in Penetanguishene, and the only ones I've seen are for the incumbent.
The riding is, geographically, split in two 'halfs'. The eastern 'half' around Orillia contains about 60% of the population, and includes some very wide spread-out, and 'rural' areas. The western 'half' is around Midland, and includes Penetanguishene, Tay, and Tiny. While 'rural' it is much more, for lack of a better term 'cozy'. Add to that a historical Francophone base, and you end up with a far more 'Liberal-Friendly' area.
This riding could go Liberal if the party can manage 40% in the province and the Tories remain at their current 30% or so, but at current polling levels, the Tories are sure to win re-election.
15 08 17 A.S.
Actually, I wouldn't dismiss the Greens as 'not much of a factor'; in fact, Peter Stubbins has municipal experience and overachieved (by party standards) in the last pair of provincial elections. But yeah, it's not like he's going to win--and the civil war in the NDP end makes this among the likelier Ontario seats to return to the traditional Liberal-in-second status quo. And in the present (and provincial-byelection-boosted)conditions, more likely second than first, notwithstanding a strong traditional Lib-left base in Franco-Ontario-tinged Midland-Penetang.
15 08 10 LeacockLives!
Simcoe North right now looks like it's sticking with its incumbent, Conservative Bruce Stanton. 3 good reasons.
1. With MPP Garfield Dunlop resigning and Patrick Brown now running in a provincial byelection things are moving in the Conservatives favour. Brown is likely to get a safe win in the middle of the federal campaign, which will dishearten supporters of the other parties. The other parties are now also having to split their local resources and volunteers between a provincial campaign and the federal one. This might effect the Conservatives too, but all in all this resource split I think favours an incumbent trying to hold his seat than the challengers trying to take it.
2. Jacob Kearey Moreland, who was rejected by the NDP at the last minute as a candidate, is now running as an independent. While normally this wouldn't get you many votes, the local paper is praising him for running (http://www.orilliapacket.com/2015/08/06/running-as-independent-a-noble-pursuit). Being from Orillia this will likely split the NDP vote in Orillia and prevent the Liberals from picking up Moreland's supporters that might have been mad about him being booted by the NDP. However many votes he gets its that much more a split in the vote. Moreland is also the only young candidate in the race, so he may get a lot of youth support.
3. The Liberals are invisible. Here in Orillia there has been no sign of the candidate for the last few months and she hasn't been really public since the election started. I'm sure a lot of people will still vote for Trudeau, but the local campaign really hasn't gotten of the ground. With the byelection split already mentioned they will have a hard time getting started now until after, which means they will be running really late. Unless the Liberals show some sign of life soon people will assume the Conservatives are going to win again, and even if they have a lot of supporters out there a lot of them will likely stay home thinking they aren't going to win.
15 08 05 Niccolo Machiavelli
This riding could be in play. The Liberals have nominated someone who could be considered a star candidate - former hospital CEO, Liz Riley - who turned things around at Orillia Soldiers' Memorial Hospital. From all appearances, her campaign is already putting up a strong challenge to Bruce Stanton, the Conservative incumbent. The Liberals are the first to open campaign offices (on the main streets of Orillia and Midland) and to put up signs. According to a recent press release, they commissioned a poll in early July, that shows them nipping at the heals of the Conservatives, with the NDP and Green Party fare behind.
The NDP is still divided over their nomination debacle. In fact, the nomination contestant who was unceremoniously blocked just hours before the nomination meeting is running and an independent. That's bound to both siphon votes away from the NDP and highlight the fact that the NDP candidate is not a serious challenger, thus causing the progressive vote to coalesce even more around Liberal Candidate, Liz Riley. The NDP candidate, Richard Banigan, has been on the ballot many times in the past, and he is being seen as a token candidate this time.
The Green Party is not much of a factor in Simcoe North.
The Conservative incumbent, while a likable enough guy, has disappointed a lot of people with his incessant Harper Conservative boosterism and unremarkable record after three terms in office.
This riding could turn out to be a surprise on election night.
15 05 28 R.O.
This is a fairly conservative area historically , it did have a liberal once in the 90's for a couple terms and I think that was only time it didn't go conservative in a very long time. Midland area on its own might be more competitive but once you add all the rural areas and smaller towns its becomes a reliable tory riding. Orillia has grown a bit but not enough to alter the riding and Bruce Stanton has still done well there .
15 05 21 Niccolò Machiavelli
The Liberals have selected former Orillia Soldiers' Memorial Hospital CEO Liz Riley as their candidate. Approximately 250 people voted at the nomination meeting. That's 5 to 10 times the number of people who showed up at the NDP nomination meeting, making it the largest contested nomination in this riding in many years. Unlike the NDP, who are fighting amongst themselves over their nomination result, the Liberals appear to be united behind their candidate.
From what I hear, Riley easily beat her nomination opponent, who had served as the riding association president for several years and had a long head start with his nomination campaign. Two other potential candidates pulled out of the race to support Riley. If she campaigns as hard, and in such an organized fashion, as she did to win the nomination, I think she has a chance against the lacklustre Conservative incumbent. She is certainly the only candidate who can pose a serious challenge.
At this point, I still call this riding for the Conservatives, but I will be watching closely to see how the election campaign evolves in this riding.
15 04 14 Niccolò Machiavelli
I still say think this riding is in the Conservative column, but it just tilted a little in the direction of the Liberals in the past few days, thanks to an NDP nomination debacle.
The perceived front-runner for the NDP nod was a well-known young journalist, public speaker, and community organizer named Jacob Kearey-Moreland. Without any explanation, NDP headquarters revoked his candidacy just before the nomination meeting started, and his angry supporters walked out of the meeting in protest. According to Richard Banigan, who ended up being acclaimed as the NDP standard-bearer, there were 60 people at the nomination meeting. According to others, after Jacob Kearey-Moreland's supporters walked out, there were less than 10 people in the room, including the party officials. Not good at all.
To make matters worse for the NDP, Jacob Kearey-Moreland was a dynamic young candidate in his late 20s, while Richard Banigan is well into his 70s and had been an NDP candidate several times before. This situation has every appearance of being a gang-up by the old guard.
The situation has split the NDP in Simcoe North, and will undoubtedly hamper their election effort. Some of their vote will go to the Liberals. Some NDP supporters may just stay home. Net advantage goes to the Liberals.
15 03 25 Niccolò Machiavelli
At this point, none of the other parties have selected their candidates, although it looks like the Liberals and the NDP are having contested nominations. The only thing that could change my prediction is if Liz Riley gets the Liberal nomination. She has a very strong professional background and a high profile as former CEO of the Orillia Hospital, a position from which she recently retired. Riley could pose a real challenge to the lackluster Conservative incumbent.
15 03 23 Dr. Bear
Once upon a time this was a relatively safe seat for the Liberals...at least safe for rural Ontario. Those days are long gone. Barring a star candidate and growth in rural areas, this will stay safely with the Conservatives.

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