Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-03-22 18:49:00

Constituency Profile


Balfour, Gene

Cherry, Lorne

Coldham, Nancy

Fairbairn, Margaret Leigh

Kent, Peter

Rachlis, Josh

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 1600.35%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (204/208 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Peter Kent


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15 10 14 Docere
Thornhill has become quite the Conservative stronghold both federally and provincially as it is filled with right-wing elements of the Jewish community. Steve Paikin called it in 2011- when he noted that the Orthodox Jewish vote was large enough in the riding to make Thornhill no longer a swing riding, as in Orthodox neighborhoods 'the Ontario PC Party got almost all the votes.'
In addition to the large Orthodox and Conservative Jewish populations there are a lot of Jews from the FSU. In contrast, there are very Reform Jews in Thornhill.
It appears that Thornhill is going to stay Conservative even if they get run of the rest of the GTA.
15 10 08 Will
My prediction for this riding is already on record a few entries below, but since this is a general comment, I will not put the party logo alongside this entry. I cannot help but notice how timid the campaign seems to be in this riding from all sides. I haven't been receiving any literature in the mail and it took awhile for any sort of signs on public property to appear.
15 08 25 Common
No question Kent and CPC will hands down win here again but I noticed that the Liberal campaign in this riding is DOA. They took forever to nominate Nancy Coldham and yet i hear nothing of her. I have even noticed a lot of Liberals who really don't like Harper are voting NDP.
15 08 16 Will
While CPC numbers are clearly not what they were in 2011, they haven't dropped to a point where I feel Peter Kent's re-election is threatened. I am not even sure who the Liberal candidate is here. The NDP is of no consequence in this suburban riding.
15 07 23 Prime Predictor
With Peter Kent and an outspoken pro-Israel policy, this riding will go CPC no matter what.
15 06 27 A.S.
Re Craig Hubley's 'ugly place with an ugly value system' suburb-bashing bile: I wonder if he would still have spouted it back in the pre-Y2K days when the pro-Israel vote hereabouts still went overwhelmingly Liberal (and Harper's onetime Reform/Alliance realm was still, fairly or not, tarred by association with neo-Nazi nutters and their like). Talk about full circle--Thornhill's now arguably safer for the CPC than most Alberta seats.
15 03 28 monkey
May have once been a Liberal riding, but has the largest Jewish community of any riding in Canada and with Harper's strong pro-Israel stance, it will help lock this one up even though it may hurt him in some ridings with large Muslim populations such as in Mississauga.
15 03 26 Jason
Thornhill is the prime electoral example of Stephen Harper's foreign policy and ethnic targeting. A former Liberal stronghold that is now one a Conservative stronghold. Arguably, the strongest Conservative riding in the GTA.
On top of that Peter Kent is popular amongst Conservatives and swing voters alike. Redistribution has chopped out Liberal leaning areas of this riding.
15 03 25 Stevo
Another electionprediction go-round, another multitude of posts portraying every single Jewish person as a single-issue voter. Whatever the case, the squeaker PC win in Thornhill in last year's provincial election demonstrated the sustained strength of the Conservative brand in this riding and sets it apart from its neighbours. Peter Kent's margin may well be chopped in half, however.
15 03 22 Mrz
While this riding may be a swing provincially, and it hasn't been since 2007, the last federal election confirmed this to be safe conservative riding. Both Peter Kent and Harper are very popular here
15 03 22 Dr. Bear
Peter Kent is popular here. Provincially it has been a swing riding for some time and was one of two ridings in the GTA to not swing Liberal in 2014. I do not expect this to go anything but Conservative.
15 03 21 Brian A
Largest Jewish population in a riding, and their MP stands proudly behind his leader's stubborn support for Israel. *sigh*
15 03 18 Craig Hubley
Since pro-state-of-Israel pandering and posturing has hit new lows since 2011 it seems likely the 2011 Jewish vote for Harper will hold in this riding. Also sadly it seems that Peter Kent, chief denialist of the regime, is quite popular in the suburbs that drain cities of life with the expenses of pumping, snow-plowing, commuting and other services. An ugly place with an ugly value system, meaning, a relatively easy Con hold.
15 03 15 z
Strong Conservative. While Harper may be not as popular elsewhere, the Jews in Thornhill made it clear in 2011 they love him. Plus new riding boundaries chop of old liberal area thus resulting in safer result for CPC.

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