Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Thunder Bay-Rainy River

Prediction Changed
2015-10-14 12:50:25

Constituency Profile


Comuzzi, Moe

Radbourne, Christy

Rafferty, John

Rusnak, Don

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Thunder Bay-Rainy River
   (205/209 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

John Rafferty


Put your political/campaign ad here! Replace it with your campaign ad! See sponsorship details.

15 10 18 DSR
The Thunder Bay seats were strong Liberal holds amongst a sea of orange in last year's provincial elections. The habit of voting Liberal is still strong here and I now expect them to take this seat on Monday with their Ontario momentum.
15 10 17 Marco Ricci
It was announced last night that Justin Trudeau is coming to Thunder Bay today, so it appears that the Liberals may be in contention in 1 or 2 of the ridings in this region.
15 10 17 CF
This is going to be a close NDP Liberal race, but there are a couple factors at play that could put it back in the Liberal camp. There is a much more visible Liberal presence in terms of lawn signs than there has been in the past several elections, particularly in the western portion of the riding. Although Rafferty will take the most votes in the Fort Frances/Atikokan area, Rusnak is strong in Thunder Bay. There is a LOT of Green support in the neighbouring TBSN riding as Bruce Hyer is the candidate and won the riding as a Dipper in 2011. There will likely be a bit of a spill over effect into TBRR, so expect an increase in Green support, which will have more to do with Hyer than with Radbourne. That being said, more Green votes only hurt the NDP. Rafferty is seen as a nice enough guy, but not a particularly effective MP. There is a significant anti-Harper movement and now that the NDP are unlikely to form government, the Liberals will benefit. Liberal pickup with NDP a close second.
15 10 13 JC
This is a very close race right now and with the liberal surge, I think Rusnak will be pulled over the finish line.
15 10 07 R.O.
I think John Rafferty will still hold the riding but it might be a lot closer than what ndp was expecting earlier in the campaign . Although the ndp did well here in past there is large conservative and liberal bases of support in this riding. And Moe Comuzzi a decent candidate for conservatives , who did well here in 2011.
15 10 06 NJam101
I'm still betting that John Rafferty will win here but it will be much closer than last time and that Liberal candidate Don Rusnak will end up in a close second place.
Liberal support will be quite strong in parts of Thunder Bay but quite weak outside the city. Rural Northern Ontario tends to vote heavily NDP. Is there any chance of a Liberal pick-up? I would say yes but it would be a last minute surge because of the national campaign.
15 10 08 JJ
Liberal signs are everywhere, followed by Conservative signs with very few NDP signs in Thunder Bay. The Liberal Candidate is knocking on doors, at events, and doing well in local debates. The riding votes Liberal or NDP and he is quickly moving up in popularity as he becomes better known.
15 10 07 jeff316
Faltering NDP campaign and relatively weak sitting MP hand this one to the Liberals.
15 09 28 DAS
I visited Thunder Bay earlier this month. Where were all the NDP signs? Most of the signs I saw were either Liberal or Conservative (with the Liberals in the majority). Heck, the Green Party nearly had the same number of lawn signs as the NDP. And the NDP's larger signs (on street corners and the like) was black lettering on orange. Better for Hallowe'en than an election. While I still see the NDP holding this riding, I think the Liberals are going to give it a run for the money.
15 09 03 N.R.
Seeing a lot of mixed support in the Thunder Bay portion of the riding. However, a sign count done in Atikokan on September 3rd revealed these results: NDP - 50, Lib - 20, Green - 1, Con - 0
15 08 30 A.S.
Worth noting that if it were about petty 'hometown advantage' arguments, this is the seat which Howard Hampton *should have been* running in--it encompasses the heart of his pre-1999 provincial constituency, after all--but hey, why not defer to Mr. Rafferty and go for the bolder challenge. (Never mind that Thunder Bay's been doing that erstwhile Windsor/present-day Ottawa Centre 'NDP federally, Liberal provincially' thing. Barring a late Justin resurgence to the top, it won't likely translate this time.)
15 08 04 Dr. Bear
Back when the NDP were polling with pre 2011 numbers in Ontario, I would have argued some other party would win. Not now. Safely NDP.
15 06 30 N.R.
I really don't understand how this is still too close to call. With John Rafferty running for re-election and the NDP polling so high, this is one of their safest seats around. I can't see this going any other colour than orange on October 19th.
15 06 12 Mr. Dave
John Rafferty has been re-nominated for the NDP.
Given the rise in NDP numbers across the country and the decline in Liberal polling numbers, this one will be staying as is in 2015.
15 04 10 NJam101
I'm pretty sure John Rafferty will win again if he is running. Even another NDP candidate would win at this point in my opinion. A Liberal candidate would have a chance if the LPC was headed for a majority win or if he/she was extremely high-profile.
15 03 29 monkey
Will probably stay NDP, but a Liberal win is not impossible especially with the Liberals promising not to bring back the gun registry and the NDP to do so. The Tories may do well in the Rainy River part, but will get slaughtered in Thunder Bay thus killing any hopes of winning here.

Navigate to Canada 2015 Home | Provincial Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2015
Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com
© Justice Quest Communications, 1999-2015 - Email Webmaster