Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Thunder Bay-Rainy River

Prediction Changed
2011-04-08 11:48:00

Constituency Profile


Boshcoff, Ken

Comuzzi-Stehmann, Moe

Rafferty, John

Shields, Ed

John Rafferty

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • kenora-rainy-river (50/191 Polls)
  • thunder-bay-atikokan (155/171 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 05 01 NJam101
    No doubt in my mind that Rafferty will win. The NDP surge in popularity will mean a better result this time for him.
    11 04 22 Stephen M
    At the start of the race, I would have bet that Rafferty was going to take it, but throughout the campaign Boshcoff has increasingly gained momentum. He went from being second last (to the greens) in the sign war to first place now. He won the most votes in the city council election in November and he didn't even try, I know that he received many votes from the Port Arthur side, but still, this election is he giving it all he has. In 2008, many Liberals stayed home and if Boshcoff can get out the Liberal vote then he will win easy handidly, but this being said, Liberals are terrible for getting out the vote like the conservatives and NDP. My prediction is that it will be close but Boshcoff will come out on top.
    11 04 19 Nicholas R.
    I'm sorry to say S. Baker but the municipal election in Thunder Bay will have no impact whatsoever on the election at a federal scale. The people in Thunder Bay may have chose to elect him because other candidates weren't what the people were looking for, I'm afraid that at that federal level, Boshcoff just isn't in the spotlight. In my own personal opinion there are better candidates running than just him. I still expect John to take this one again.
    11 04 18 S. Baker
    I think this will be a very close three-way race. With the Libs and NDP splitting the vote, the Conservatives probably smell a chance to surprise.
    However, I look to the results of the 2010 municipal election in Thunder Bay, where Ken Boshcoff got more than 22,500 votes in the at-large race, more than 4000 more than his closest rival. He is very popular in the city of Thunder Bay. With better turnout expect from Liberals in general, I think he will re-take his seat from Rafferty.
    Michael Ignatieff is also expected in the riding in the week before the election, which should help get out the Liberal vote in both Thunder Bay ridings.
    11 04 18 jfra1379
    I think there are enough Liberal supporters who, last time thought Boshcoff had it in the bag, that they stayed home.
    This time around, they'll remember the Alamo.
    NDP support isn't what it was in prior elections, as neither Rafferty or Hyer on the north side have proven effective. Boshcoff had very strong support for City Council, and I think much of that (at least in the city proper) will translate to federal support.
    11 04 16 M. Lunn
    The Liberals are too weak outside of Thunder Bay to realistically take this never mind the strong opposition to the gun registry in the rural portions will ensure they come in a distant third there. The Tories may win the rural polls, but will come in a distant third in Thunder Bay, thus the NDP wins as they are competitive in Thunder Bay and in the rural polls while the other parties in only one section.
    11 04 14 DrAwesomepants
    This might be too close to call just yet. The Prime Minister will be in Thunder Bay on Monday to hold a rally. The Conservatives would love to pick up one of the Thunder Bay ridings, and they've made no secret about the fact that they are focusing on the region. Liberal support here isn't what it once was. This could end up being an interesting 3-way race.
    11 04 08 David
    Still too early to call this one for the NDP. Both ridings in Thunder Bay are traditionally Liberal and if the Liberals maintain a disciplined campaign, one or both ridings could switch back. A lot of friends and family from the area don't have much positive to say about their MPs.
    11 04 07 Dr. Nguyen Van Falk
    Should be an NDP hold. Rafferty has worked hard and campaigned harder, and seems to still be popular in the riding. Thunder Bay-Rainy River always goes either Liberal or NDP, and I think the Liberals are in rough shape this time. As other commenters have mentioned, voters won't be too impressed with Ken Boshcoff's characteristically opportunistic decision to resign from city council 4 months after he was elected to take another crack at federal office. Leadership-wise, Ignatieff and his liberal elitism, to put it mildly, is not well-received. The one thing that could have swung a large voting bloc to the Conservatives would have been if Rafferty had voted to keep the gun registry, but the NDP's somewhat unprincipled approach on that vote will help them hang onto this and other Northwestern Ontario ridings.
    11 04 06 binriso
    Should be an NDP hold, a 3000 vote win last time and even if the other two candidates are well-known the CPC would take votes from the Liberals more than the NDP creating a good battle for 2nd place.
    11 04 06 NJam101
    In my opinion it looks as though there won't be much of a change in results as compared to the last election. The Conservative candidate actually did worse than the average for Conservative candidates here in over the last 30 years. Will the new candidate many any difference? Possibly but it won't be enough to put her in contention. Will national campaigns change some voters' minds? Quite possibly but Rafferty just has to make sure his supporters actually get out and vote. He has increased his total number of votes in each of the last three elections.
    11 04 03 M.Lunn
    A likely NDP hold, although the Liberals did well in Thunder Bay and could possibly pull this off if they can gain many of their lost votes. As for the Tories, they could win the portions outside Thunder Bay, but have no chance at winning Thunder Bay where the majority of the riding's population resides. Opposition to the gun registry could certainly help the Tories in the rural parts but not enough to win this. This is the NDP's to lose at this point.
    11 04 02 Nicholas R.
    It seems to me that neither the Liberal or Conservatives have much of a chance here. Over the past few elections the NDP has gained ground and I don't think it's going to stop. I predict this time there will be an even larger gap between the NDP and second place finisher, which I assume would be Liberal. Talk around here seems to say of an almost unanimous NDP vote, although I can't speak for the whole area as this is just in Atikokan. Even though this specific area holds few votes in the whole scheme of things I'd still say NDP John Rafferty will be coming back even stronger than in 2008 as he is quite popular around here.
    11 03 30 Nick J ‘Teddy’ Boragina
    Not a prediction, a response to another comment: The old federal PC Party never did well in this part of Ontario, but the new party holds Kenora. Why? It is based on old ‘Populist Canadian Alliance’ support. That support, in this part of Ontario, has stayed with the party.
    11 03 24 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    So Boschoff just got elected to city council and now he wants to bail back to Ottawa. Donno...not impressed. Can't imagine local voters being impressed either. Then the CPC candidate is a familiar name. Read her website and it basically starts off with, ‘Hey look at me, I'm Joe Comuzzi's neice and that makes me the perfect candidate’. Name recognition works for some (and it may work here) but hopefully voters will dig deeper and look at all candidates closely. Actually think that Rafferty will keep the riding though that's not a given and he'll have to fight hard for it.
    11 03 22 JB
    Currently, the Liberals aren't popular in this region, both federally and provincially. I'm still predicting another federal NDP hold. Rafferty has been an effective, opposition MP, instead of a useless back-bencher.
    Ignatieff's message hasn't been very well-received here. Boshcoff successfully ran for Thunder Bay city council, probably as a back-up plan. He does has his core supporters within town, but the rural part of this riding sways NDP, and that'll determine the outcome in this riding.
    NDP hold.
    09 01 01 A.S.
    I know what Stevo means about Tory-friendliness, though that's based more upon the populism behind the 2000 Canadian Alliance result; but by '04 and '06 any Tory strength was but the afterglow of a situation in which Rafferty had already seized the upper hand. (Or even PC-turned-Liberal Boshcoff, for that matter.) Thus by the time Rafferty sealed the deal in '08, more pundits would have agreed that Layton had blocked out Harper's sun in the Lakehead (Joe Comuzzi notwithstanding). Though if Harper's eyeing a majority, I can see how TBRR could get back on radar on the back of the Kenora pickup--at least, if Boshcoff weren't running again...
    09 09 12 Marco Ricci
    This riding will have another face-off between John Rafferty and Ken Boshcoff, and both are well-known names here as Rafferty is now the MP (and ran and almost won provincially in 2007) and Boschcoff is the former MP. But just as with the other Thunder Bay riding, the NDP won here by 8 points and that may be too big a gap to make up for the Liberals this time around.
    09 08 31 Stevo
    I was very surprised by the Conservatives' rather distant third-place finish here, this in a riding which most pundits agreed was one of the more Tory-friendly ridings in Northern Ontario. In fact, they dropped off quite a bit from their 2006 and 2004 showings. It seems Tory hopes in Northern Ontario (aside from their victory in Kenora) have now leapt to the other side of Lake Superior in Sault Ste. Marie, where they almost pulled off an upset win.
    09 08 29 JB
    The Conservatives have made inroads into northwestern Ontario via Kenora, but this riding will still flop either NDP or Liberal. The Liberals lost it last time because of Dion. If they can pick up momentum nationally, then this will be a tight race between NDP Rafferty and Liberal Boshcoff.
    TCTC right now.

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