Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Timmins-James Bay

Prediction Changed
2015-03-22 18:49:19

Constituency Profile


Angus, Charlie

Curley, John P.

Kennedy, Max

Lever, Todd

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Timmins-James Bay
   (196/199 polls, 98.62% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Charlie Angus

   (3/199 polls, 1.27% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Jay Aspin


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15 10 13 NJam101
CTV Northern Ontario-Oracle Poll for this district:
Among decided voters:
Angus (NDP) 62%
Lever (LPC) 21%
Curley (CPC) 11%
Kennedy (GPC) 5%
300 people polled by telephone with live interviewer. 18% were undecided. Margin of error +/- 5.6% 19/20
Source: http://northernontario.ctvnews.ca/video?clipId=726178
15 10 06 NJam101
My home!
I really can't add much from what I wrote before. The NDP may not be doing well in the polls across Canada and in Ontario but this is Northern Ontario. I have seen NDP candidates here buck the trend many times in the past. You can't predict outcomes in Northern Ontario with polls that are for all of Ontario.
Charlie Angus will do well throughout the riding. He will likely do better in Timmins than he did in 2011. Elsewhere, support will be very strong and especially so in Kirkland Lake. I'm predicting that Liberal candidate Todd Lever will come in second. Conservative John Curley doesn't seem to have much of a campaign going.
What are some of the most discussed issues here? I'd say mining, infrastructure, economic diversification and pensions.
15 08 14 Sykes
Charlie has won this riding four consecutive times, and his party is more popular nationally than ever before. A slam dunk hold for the NDP.
15 06 28 A.S.
As those who follow electoral-swing maps know, this was a really atypical case for 2011 of the vote swinging dramatically *to* the Cons *from* the NDP--and standing out all the more for the size of the riding (whereas for lost seats like SSM or Elmwood-Transcona, you have to scan inward). Yes, blame gun-registry politics for that; but then again, it could just as well be a 'corrective' for Charlie Angus's top-heavy 2008 share. In which case, abide by 2008 for a measure of how truly indestructible Charlie Angus is--if *anyone* foreshadowed the sea-to-sea-to-shining-sea raw reach of the Orange Crush and Orange Chinook combined, it is he.
15 05 29 Stephen
My home riding, no one can beat Charlie Angus here, especially if the NDP's recent poll numbers hold up.
15 04 28 R.O.
This is a fairly safe ndp area and Charlie Angus is a high profile and well known ndp mp , so its more than likely they hold onto this one . the conservative vote did grow here in 2011 but ndp still has a large enough following in the riding to hold on for time being .
15 04 13 NJam101
My home electoral district.
I'll just repeat what I wrote before. Angus will win and he has a lifetime lock here. Nobody will beat him until he retires. He is a high-profile MP who is very popular with so many different types of people. (anglophone, francophone, aboriginals, minority groups, etc.) He will win here and he could win in downtown Toronto if he ran there. If the NDP were to win, Angus would be a top cabinet minister. If he improved his French language skills he could be party leader down the road.
The only real criticism that some people here have of him is the lack of funds that end up here because he is a member of an opposition party. But most don't fall for that argument. In 2011, some people said that the CPC candidate could defeat Angus over the long-gun registry issue. That obviously proved not to be the case and Angus still received over half of the votes when his vote-share was supposed to take a hit.
It will be interesting to see if the Liberal candidate ends up in second place just like in last year's provincial election. TJB is not normally friendly to conservatives but the fact the CPC candidate got 31.7% in 2011 was a real surprise.
15 03 26 B.W.
A likely NDP hold. Charlie Angus remains personally popular in the riding.
15 03 22 Dr. Bear
Solid NDP hold. This riding is both an NDP riding and a Charlie Angus riding. Don't expect and change this October.

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