Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-09-30 13:02:53

Constituency Profile


Braid, Peter

Chagger, Bardish

Freeman, Diane

Hawley-Yan, Emma

Walsh, Richard

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 3660.68%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (214/214 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Peter Braid


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15 10 15 Docere
Waterloo was one of those 'interesting' ridings in the summer when one could imagine a UK style realignment of Canadian politics with the Liberals squeezed out. But the Liberals have come roaring back and this will be an easy Liberal pickup.
15 10 12 Spx
Just like Kitchener-Center, this should definitely be a Liberal gain. It was very close last time around and with those low Conservative numbers, it seems impossible to hold this riding. Liberal gain.s
15 10 05 R.O.
I still feel this riding is hard to predict for a number of factors. First off it was never really predicted to ever go conservative yet Peter Braid found a way to get elected here in 2008 and 2011. It was also seen by liberals a couple times as a riding they'd easily win , in 2011 it was one many though they could retake rather easily yet it stayed conservative. They also though after Elizabeth Witmer left as mpp it go liberal in by-election but it surprised everyone and went ndp provincially and stayed ndp in recent provincial election. So I find the riding rather confusing , there is also the question of the student vote and how much of a factor it be here as riding includes Wilfrid Laurier and university of waterloo campuses . however this year advance polls are thanksgiving weekend and most students go home so they have the chance to vote in home riding instead of school riding making the student vote unpredictable. There is also the factor of Peter Braid being the incumbent and how he is viewed as the mp , is he seen as an effective mp who has represented the riding well. There has also been numerous visits by all 3 leaders to this area an indication of a close race.
15 10 04 Dr. Bear
So the Liberals made it close in 2011, when they were at 25% in Ontario. They are now polling around 44% in Ontario. Extrapolating those numbers to this riding would mean the Liberal will get about 67% of the vote this time. This, of course, is extrapolating from provincial numbers as opposed to regional, but with such a significant change in support, the CPC would need either 1) a very strong NDP campaign to split the vote (that is no longer happening) or 2) a super popular star candidate (the do not have one). With the current numbers, this will be one of the first CPC seats to be called for the Liberals in Ontario. A prediction for the conservatives here is just foolishness, ignorance or uber-partisan wishful thinking.
15 10 04 ME
A close 3 way race...with the NDP winning on the ground game with their organization and star local candidate...The Conservative will come in third...
15 10 04 DSR
Environics poll (15/9/20) Lib 39%, Con 31%, NDP 26%, Green 3%. Poll taken before NDP slide which should favour the Liberals.
15 10 01 carpentier
Opposition vote is divided, and no party is an obvious winner. University sections will likely lean Liberal, non-University to NDP. This is a three party race, with Braid having the most stable support base, receiving about the same number of votes will be enough for him to win. He is well known now, better than opponents.
15 09 18 Marco Ricci
WK, I think this is a race between the Liberals & the Conservatives. I don't see the NDP being that competitive at this point. NDP were a distant 3rd in Waterloo in 2011, and that's where the current projections have them this year. The current projections have the Liberals winning here with an 85% chance, although I will leave this as TCTC in case the Ontario trends change, and because of Peter Braid's incumbency as MP. I can't speak to the racism issue you mention, but there would have to be a lot of racism for Bardish Chagger to finish as low as 3rd.
15 08 26 WK
This is a toss-up between the Conservatives and the NDP, riding history would suggest the liberals would be the go-to challenger but name recognition and racism will probably let Freeman take 2nd or possibly even 1st if anti-Harper sentiment is high enough. I would say Braid is tolerated vs well-liked, people do not speak of him like they did of Whitmer. He's done his best to be a friendly face and hasn't earned enough station in the party to be assigned much of anything to screw up.
Waterloo might have one of the highest visible minority populations but most of them are students who will be encouraged to vote in their home ridings this time around due to the 'fair' elections act changes. The other residents are still overwhelmingly of German descent and there will be discrimination against the Chagger campaign to some degree, sad to say but I believe it is true as a lifelong resident.
The deciding factor will almost certainly be how the national campaign develops.
15 08 10 Jason
Local councillor Diane Freeman should be able to pick this one up for the NDP. It helps that the NDP hold this provincially.
15 08 09 R.F.
I believe this riding is a three-way race with the advantage currently resting with the Conservatives. However, I think it is too early to make a call for any party.
The fact that the NDP have nominated a city councillor and the fact they have won the provincial riding the last two times (including a by-election) suggests that the NDP will be significantly stronger than in other ridings in the area. As others have said, the presence of the two universities also helps the NDP.
The Conservatives have the incumbency advantage, and also the ability to benefit from a split of the centre-left vote between the Liberals and the NDP. The Liberals have traditionally been the other alternative here, but their candidate is not as well known as the NDP and Conservative candidates.
In the early 'lawn sign' battle, the NDP appears to have a slight edge over the Conservatives, with the Liberals a clear third. It is early but I have only seen a few Liberal signs on public land on major streets, while there are already plenty of NDP and Conservative signs appearing on people's lawns.
I think the Liberals are the least likely to win, but it's really anyone's race and we won't know what is likely to happen until much closer to election day.
15 08 07 Follow The Numbers
The NDP may have nominated a city councillor and are rising in the polls, but the Liberals are polling much better than before. Waterloo is a large university town and as others have pointed out, the Liberals do well in the student demographic. Things could always change between now and October, but for now the Liberals should be able to take this one.
15 08 06 Docere
Yeah, it was definitely premature on my part to predict a Liberal victory here. By running ex-Liberal Diane Freeman here, it looks like the NDP is pursuing the Catherine Fife strategy and aggressively targeting the 'liberally minded.' With the NDP being a real contender for power and the Liberals seemingly unable to present themselves as 'the alternative party', they are in a very good position to take this. The Conservatives could also prevail due to vote-splitting. Even though Waterloo has some 'Lib Dem' tendencies (and Trudeau is not yet in Clegg '15 territory) - they are the least likely of the three parties to take this. Should be an interesting race to watch.
15 08 04 MYsPicks
The student composition of this area will IMO have a bigger impact than in 2011, when the election was scheduled for early May, after the majority of students had already left for the summer. That could play a role in boosting either the LPC or NDP, who typically do well with that demographic.
That said, Braid has been a personable MP who has been solid (if unspectacular) for the riding. Bardish Chagger and Diane Freeman will have to hit the pavement hard to overcome the area's advantage that typically goes to the incumbent.
I'd say Braid 1st, Freeman 2nd, Chagger 3rd.
15 08 03 Patty Ferguson
Bardish Chagger is a running an incredible campaign, and despite not being the incumbent, is more visible then Braid in the community. I think the cons are getting lazy in this riding, and they will pay this election. Chagger is from the area, knows the issues better, and will appeal to students/progressives
15 07 29 Monkey Cheese
Things are looking better for the Liberals here due to stronger polling numbers. Waterloo is mostly filled with university students and the Liberals tend to poll very well with that demographic. If enough of them vote then the Liberals should be able to win here.
15 07 23 Prime Predictor
Thought this was a low-hanging fruit for the Liberals, but the NDP look determined to make a stronger challenge with the new nominee (who the Liberals wanted). Wonder if they might hurt the Liberals enough to allow a CPC hold. TCTC.
15 07 21 A.S.
The Fife provincial byelection was a brilliant template for an outa-nowhere Mulcair 'frontrunner strategy', and the present Fife-Freeman dynamic suggest the NDP has every intent of pursuing it--however, it'll be a steeper hill to climb than they bargained on, given that most of the best NDP parts have been hived off to Kitchener Centre; that's why the seat's now called just-plain Waterloo. (Never mind that Fife would still have won within these boundaries--albeit more marginally; indeed, given the recent federal history it's the perfect kind of seat to *generate* a Lib-Con split on the NDP's behalf.)
15 06 04 MS
The NDP has nominated city councilor Diane Freeman at a meeting attended by Mulcair. While I wouldn't suggest that she will win at this point, the party clearly considers this a target. Muclair even referred to her a star candidate, and with the provincial organization holding the seat, the party will likely make a stronger effort to win here.
15 05 16 seasaw
While I fully agree with a lot of the previous posters who are predicting a Liberal win here, I'm predicting a CPC hold for the same reason I predicted NDP hold in the last provincial. Looking at the riding, there's lots of reasons why one might believe this would revert back to the Liberals, except one. In over half a century, this riding has almost never thrown an incumbent out, neither federally nor provincially. The only incumbent to lose was Andrew Talegdi, and that's because of an embarrassing gaffe and by only 10 or 11 votes. So, unless we see a major shift of votes to the Liberals and a total collapse of the CPC support, this one stays blue.
15 05 01 Docere
I don't think Peter Braid being a 'moderate' Tory will be enough to save him. The Liberals only narrow lost Waterloo last time and should be a pickup.
15 04 22 Rational Optimist
I think that this one will be a bit easier than Kitchener Centre for the Tories to hold on. As others have noted, Braid is a moderate who popular in the riding and has managed to avoid negative attention. Chagger is a pretty good candidate, but not the star that might have been needed to win this one. If the NDP does particularly poorly here (or generally), she may take it, but I think the balance of probabilities is in favour of the Tories.
15 03 29 D.K.
Waterloo is interesting and I think it could go either CPC, Liberal or NDP depending on the candidates, their ground games, and the national campaigns as well. All that being said - Peter Braid is well liked in Waterloo and has been a solid MP. He's more of a Red Tory and I think that will help him as well. Using Catherine Fife as an example for the NDP isn't fair. Provincially, the riding may be NDP, but I think it's more about Fife than it is a groundswell of support for all things New Democrat. The same could be said of Elizabeth Witmer, another well liked Red Tory, when she held it for the Ontario PCs from 1990-2012 and finally resigned.
15 03 28 monkey
As a large university town and the Liberals generally seen as the most favourable to that demographic, I suspect this will be one of their easies pick ups in Ontario.
15 03 27 Dr Bear
I agree this should be a Liberal gain. Unless the NDP put up a strong fight here (which I doubt) and split the vote, I say Waterloo returns to the red column.
15 03 26 Jason
I second JC. If the Liberals cannot win Waterloo, then Stephen Harper wins a majority.
Right now the trends show the Liberals are neck to neck or slightly leading the Tories in Ontario. That should mean a riding like Waterloo win return to the Grit fold.
15 03 24 JC
This is low hanging fruit for the Liberals if they can't win this or Kitchener Centre it's probably a Tory Majority.

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