Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Wellington-Halton Hills

Prediction Changed
2015-03-19 18:36:49

Constituency Profile


Anstey, Harvey Edward

Bouteiller, Brent Allan

Chong, Michael

Gajerski-Cauley, Anne

Trant, Don

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 3150.57%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Wellington-Halton Hills
   (230/230 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Michael Chong


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15 09 12 Jason
A Conservative stronghold with a popular incumbent.
Hope Chong runs for the next CPC leadership to bring forward ideas of democratic reform into the discussion.
15 09 08 Teddy Boragina
Chong is the reason websites like this exist. Chong is very locally popular, and is a great constituency MP. It's quite likely, irregardless of the math, that if the CPC were to only win one seat in Ontario, that this would be that seat.
15 09 03 MTC
I know this is going to sound crazy, but the Globe and Mail, who lets face it hasn't been NDP positive in their polling so far, is showing the NDP sweeping Southwestern Ontario. Specifically, they are now projecting Wellington-Halton Hills to go NDP. Is this an outlying projection, or does it signal trouble for Chong? We'll have to wait and see.
15 08 17 Craig Hubley
Repeating my prediction that Michael Chong will hold this seat. He may cross the floor two days after the election, but, he'll win it in October.
308 calls this a 95% likely win on the numbers alone, without considering that this is a Chong win and not at all a Stephen Harper win. Were Chong's Reform Act to pass, I'd expect Stephen Harper to be among its first victims.
15 08 13 Monkey Cheese
Michael Chong is a highly respected MP on both sides of the aisle and if anyone should have been appointed 'Minister of Democratic Reform', it should have been him. Unless things go completely wrong for the Conservatives, I can't imagine him losing. Chong may see some of his vote share decrease, but he will easily win.
15 07 17 MTC
This will be a hold for the Conservatives for sure unless something remarkable happens, which is unlikely.
The real interest will be what percentage Chong gets. With the way things are swinging, and with the Liberals and NDP running real campaigns for the first time in the past two provincial elections, he may fall to between 40-50%.
15 06 18 A.S.
Mike Chong = the last of the PCs? Which, I guess, would render Wellington-HH as a Norfolk North or Westmorland & Lonsdale kind of seat. Anyway, and in no small part fuelled by Chong himself, WHH is one of the last places where blue might as well be a non-reactive, non-neanderthal 'sensible shoes' choice as if Bob Stanfield were still leader--the only way it'll shift from the Cons is if Chong shifts from the Cons. And give what CPC *might* be reduced to in a worst-case scenario, don't count out that possibility, either.
15 04 23 ML
Chong is a likeable, centrist-minded incumbent who doesn't mind veering away from his party from time to time. While his independent-minded approach hasn't won him many friends in Harper's inner circle ? he only held cabinet portfolios briefly and not since 2008 ? it seems to have served in well in his home riding where he has always won by healthy margins. Barring a Kim Campbell-level CPC collapse I think this seat is safely in the Conservative column.
15 03 29 monkey
For starters, this is a very safe Conservative riding so it wouldn't matter who the Tories nominated, they would easily win this. Michael Chong being the strong candidate he is, is just the icing on the cake.
15 03 18 Craig Hubley
Michael Chong has demonstrated more personal integrity than the entire rest of his party combined, especially by resigning from Cabinet over a measure he opposed, and pushing the Reform Act to counter the PMO's over-centralized power and restoring more UK-like Westminster democracy.
One of maybe half a dozen personal merit holds, and the numbers back it.
In the post-Harper era, if there is still a Conservative Party, Chong is more likely to be guiding what it stands for than literally anyone else. Unless, of course, it remains a simple dirty oil anti-science fascist party.
Regardless of who's in the PMO, the inability of MPs to oust them without triggering an election (unless they go voluntarily) is a massive weakness in Canadian democracy that has effectively let leaders blackmail parties unto their own doom. That isn't good for anyone, but Chong's Reform Act is good for everyone. It doesn't go far enough, but it goes far enough for Chong to claim to be his own man, and to win on his own personal merit.

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