Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-03-24 23:43:37

Constituency Profile


Gerl, Sylvia

Tanaka, Shaun

Van Loan, Peter

Viitala, Mark

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 4081.05%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (182/182 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Peter Van Loan


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15 08 23 R.O.
This riding isn't as rural as when Peter Van Loan first won in 2004 but its still a fairly conservative riding. And type of growth here has been more suburban and people who want to be close to city but not actually live in it . the conservatives should hold this riding .
15 08 03 A.S.
By way of trivia, this was the only York Region riding where the NDP made it to second place--and more by way of dead cat bounce in a seat where nobody but CPC had a chance in blazes. (Though the Lake Simcoe-clinging trashburbia has always had a NDP lean--which is also why this was the only York Region zone to elect a New Democrat in the 1990 Rae landslide. All rather footnoteish now.)
15 03 28 monkey
Outside Eastern Ontario, this is probably one of if not the safest Conservative riding in the province so even if the party got reduced to only 10 seats in Ontario, this would be one of the ten.
15 03 23 Dr. Bear
While some may consider Van Loan as just another Harper cabinet blow-hard, he's liked in his riding and will easily get reelected.

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Canada Federal Election - 2015
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