Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Calgary Forest Lawn

Prediction Changed
2015-03-25 21:27:19

Constituency Profile


Badura, Matt

Devine, Jason

Hansell, Judson

Obhrai, Deepak

Souraya, Abdou

Stewart, Cam

Veress, Max

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 2270.73%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Calgary East
   (129/206 polls, 63.14% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Deepak Obhrai

   Calgary Northeast
   (75/206 polls, 36.81% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Devinder Shory

   (2/206 polls, 0.04% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Kevin Sorenson


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15 10 13 Teddy Boragina
More and more the math is starting to push the Liberals over the tipping point and into victory territory.
I have to honestly admit, even I am surprised at this.
15 09 30 Teddy Boragina
I've tried to stay from math lectures, but, here goes
If the Liberals are at 20% in Alberta, that means 20% of all alberta voters will vote Liberal.
If the party was at 20% in all the rural ridings, this would be no big deal, but chances are they are closer to 5%.
In addition, fueled in part by provincial events, the Liberals are not doing as well in Edmonton as some might expect, due to NDP strength.
Thus, Calgary is where the Liberals are going to get most of their votes. This could mean as many as a third of Calgarians vote Liberal, even if only 1/5th of Albertans do.
If the Liberals are able to take 2 votes, for every 5 votes the Tories do in Alberta, this seat comes into play. That means if the Tories are at 50% across alberta, the Liberals only need 20%, and if the Tories are at 45%, the Liberals only need 18%, 55% means 22% and so on.
At the current time the math favours the Tories, but it only takes a slight swing from the NDP to the Liberals to push this riding into the red column.
15 09 29 A.S.
As one of the first non-'Old Stock Canadians' elected under the Reform banner in 1997, Obhrai has preempted serious challenges ever since--and while the Orange Chinook + the Skyview situation may have suggested vulnerability around the corner this season, it looks right now like the riding name fits: it's a political cemetery for anyone not named 'Deepak Obhrai'.
15 09 18 R.O.
Have seen pictures of Deepak Obrahi campaigning on a scooter bike this election , I don't think I've seen another mp do that before. This is an alberta riding and he has been a popular longtime mp for this area and should hold the riding
15 04 09 Dr. Bear
Threehundredeight's polling aggregation is now suggesting that this riding is a toss up with the Liberals and is actually tipping red. Hunh! Not completely sure I buy it but I'm finally looking at Calgary ridings with renewed interest.
15 03 26 Dr. Bear
While I'm still calling it a CPC hold, the Liberals are only behind by 5 points. There is the potential for an upset, albeit a long shot.
15 03 25 Jack Cox
This at some point could become competitive, Obhrai is a really bad MP, but its going to take a couple of elections for this to happen.

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