Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Calgary Skyview

Prediction Changed
2015-10-18 00:04:23

Constituency Profile


Blanchard, Daniel

Butt, Najeeb

Garvey, Stephen

Kang, Darshan Singh

Reddy, Ed

Shory, Devinder

Singh, Sahajvir

Young, Joseph

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 1290.44%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Calgary Northeast
   (157/159 polls, 99.97% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Devinder Shory

   Wild Rose
   (2/159 polls, 0.03% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Blake Richards


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15 10 18 Marco Ricci
'SC', the press reported tonight that Trudeau's final campaign appearance will be in North Vancouver tomorrow night, the riding that was once held by JT's grandfather.
But since this will be the 2nd-last stop on Trudeau's tour, it could be an indication that this riding is in play.
Teddy Boragina, you have studied this riding more extensively than me, so I respect your analysis. The only thing I would say is that it's hard to know whether the Notley voters are all moving towards the Trudeau Liberals. That's what Mainstreet polling said recently, but Notley appeared with Mulcair at a rally yesterday, so there may be some anti-Conservative voters that remain with the NDP.
Will be interesting to see what happens. :)
15 10 17 SPP
In 2011, the Liberals received 28% in this riding when they only received a dismal 9.3% in Alberta. They are now polling around the 25-30% mark in Alberta according to the poll consensus. Even a 15% swing to the Liberals would put them within winning distance for this seat. I expect the swing will be even greater than that and this will be a Liberal gain. 308 seems to think this riding won't even be close - giving it a 89% chance of going Liberal.
15 10 17 Teddy Boragina
This is my final prediction on this website for this election, and it reinforces my earlier prediction.
This riding will go Liberal by a huge margin.
The reason people say the Liberals will win here has nothing to do with Mr. Kang. The reason people say the Liberals will win here has everything to do with math.
In 2011 this was the best riding for the Liberals in the province, using the ratio method to calculate 'best'
This riding has always been one of the best for the Liberals in Calgary, and, each election, the Liberals do better and better in Calgary compared to the rest of the province.
In fact, we now stand at the point where the Liberals could actually and truly take a plurality of all votes cast within Calgary.
It seems that provincial NDP voters are voting, en masse, for the Liberal Party of Canada, in order to affect the same change they did on a provincial level and toss an unwanted right-wing government.
I've been calling Skyview for the Liberals since about 2012. Not a month would go by where someone would try to tell me I was insane for doing so, and yet, I kept at it.
I started donating money to the riding, to put my money where my mouth is, despite being on social assistance.
And now we stand on the verge of a Liberal government, if not an outright Liberal majority, where Skyview will return a liberal MP, if not a Cabinet member.
In short. It will feel very good to 'chat' with all those who claimed I was crazy after the Liberals take 2/3rds of all votes in this riding.
15 10 17 SC
Trudeau is campaigning here on Sunday, effectively his last appearances of the campaign. Read into that what you will.
15 10 13 William
I'm calling this one for the Conservatives. I live in Harvest Hills, and walking through part of it and Coventry Hills neighborhood over the last two days, there's a startling disparity in the number of signs. I spotted over two hundred signs for Devinder Shory, two Stephen Garvey signs, a single sign for the NDP candidate, and not a single Liberal sign! This being on private properties and lawns, where the homeowner has to allow it.
The four neighborhood Hills aren't a part of Calgary-McCall, the provincial riding Kang represented as an MLA, but they are at the boundary riding between Calgary-North Hills and Calgary-McCall, so the complete lack of any supports enthusiastic enough to put up a sign tells me Shory is going to win by a landslide margin in the Hills.
Perversely, the difference might not be as wide as it otherwise would have been not because of any effort on Kang's part, but because of the Harvest Hills Golf Course redevelopment. Stephen Garvey is running partly as a protest candidate for it (it's on his signs), despite the decision for that being two levels of government lower than the federal government, and if he were to leach an even percentage of votes from the main three parties, even a few hundred, Shory would lose more nominal votes as a result.
15 10 08 Kyle H
While the Conservative numbers are back up in Alberta, the Liberal numbers are as well; JT's party has become the second choice for voters province-wide, and that is probably more true in Calgary than elsewhere. That still means there's a 30-point gap between the parties of course! But that is a lot better than the nearly 60-point gap that existed before.
Skyview is a top Liberal target and has shown itself to be a district willing to change, with votes provincially for the NDP and the 2011 Liberal bump with Cam Stewart, now running in Forest Lawn. With Kang now the candidate and favourable headwinds nationally and provincially, the Liberals have nowhere to go but up in Skyview - calling this a lock for the Conservatives just because its Calgary is meaningless when considering the new reality on the ground and in the province that just turfed a decades old conservative dynasty.
If Skyview is going to ever going to switch allegiences, this election will be when it does - there has never been a better chance for it to. Shory still has a good chance of course, but don't pretend he's a shoo-in either!
15 10 09
AS a immigrant and resident of Calgary Sky view riding i am of the opinion and believe a lot of other immigrants will agree and support that MLA vote is reserved for Mr. Darshan Kang but MP vote is for Mr. Devinder Shory as has been in the past and will remain that way.Mr. Shory will win this election.
15 10 06 R.O.
Conservatives are polling well in alberta and still doing well in major cities of Calgary and Edmonton. The provincial election appears to have been much different dynamics than federal election. Current mp Devinder Shory has got 50% of the vote both elections he ran in this riding. Its true this is a riding with a strong liberal base and higher profile candidate when compared to other Calgary ridings. but its still Calgary and should stay conservative.
15 10 06 Floyd
This riding has been legitimately too close to call for a while. The time for a call has come. This riding has been in the hands of conservative leaning parties since Calgary Northeast was created in 1988 (Skyview is largely within that former riding), and Shory Devinder has won the past two elections in this riding, increasing his vote the 2nd time and winning in 2011 with 56.8% of the vote (source Wikipedia and Elections Canada). Mr. Devinder's roots in India make him a popular MP with the voters of Calgary Skyview, over 15,000 of whom identify as immigrants from India (source Statistics Canada). The Conservatives have been ticking upward in Alberta for the past two weeks and are now sitting at 56.5% (source CBC Poll Tracker). Any polling strength for other parties will be clustered in Edmonton and downtown Calgary, but this number takes more suburban ridings like Calgary Skyview out of the race and into Conservative hands.
15 09 12 Marco Ricci
Teddy Boragina, I don't think any riding in Alberta can be called a 'liberal lock'.
Let's not forget that this is a province where the Liberals haven't won a single seat since 2004. And even then, only Anne McLellan and David Kilgour were able to get elected. Then Kilgour left politics at the end of the Martin era, and McLellan was defeated.
So the Liberals elected no MP's in Alberta in 2006, 2008 or 2011.
However, it's true that this is the strongest chance the Liberals have had in a decade to elect an MP here. The current projections show the Liberals winning this, and Darshan Kang's experience as a former MLA give him a stronger shot than most Liberals. However, we have to actually wait & see until October 19 whether the Liberals can get across the finish line in Alberta. Until then it remains a possibility, not a lock.
15 09 06 Marco Ricci
308 currently shows this riding as having a 61% chance of going Liberal. (September 1, 2015 projection):
Obviously because this is Alberta and the Conservatives won all the ridings except Edmonton-Strathcona in the last election, it is difficult to know whether the projections of Liberal wins in ridings like this will actually hold up.
It would be good to have a specific riding poll done of some of these Alberta ridings so we can get more local data on whether the Liberals or the NDP are really in the running in this province this year, or whether it is a mirage.
15 09 04 Teddy Boragina
This riding is simply a liberal lock. They have a very strong candidate, running in a new riding that seems designed to elect a Liberal. They are polling over 15% provincewide in Alberta, this might not seem like a magical feat, but given how poorly the party has done in the province in the past, it is important. The party has had it's vote concentrated in Calgary - this is where that 15% comes in - and seems to be focusing it's province-wide campaign there as well. Lastly, and I've alluded to this as well, the simple math has told us this is the most winnable riding for the Liberals in the province, even based on 'weaker' candidates.
I've been calling this riding as a Liberal lock for years. I see no reason to change.
15 08 25 CGD
One of the 3 ridings that should be going Liberal this time around, a reflection of shifting trends in Alberta that will definitely be seen also in Calgary Centre & Edmonton Centre.
15 08 24 BC predictor
Could see this going Liberal (as a 2nd Calgary seat after centre) but right now i'm not seeing it. CPC hold
15 08 18 R.O.
This is a Calgary riding where the liberals have some support but its still a riding that went cpc last time by a comfortable margin. Devinder Shory has been mp since 2008 and somewhat low profile in Ottawa . I'd still be surprised to see the liberals gain any seats in suburban Calgary, its been a conservative area in recent elections. but its possible this riding be closer than some of the others in this area.
15 08 07 Follow The Numbers
I agree with the other posters here that this is safely going to go Liberal. A strong, popular candidate, stronger polling numbers in Alberta, and strategic voting will come into play here to give the Liberals the edge.
15 08 04 Monkey Cheese
The polls still show this as a Liberal pickup. Their candidate is a popular former MLA and there appears to be some controversy surrounding the Conservative candidate. 308 is giving a 69% confidence to the Liberals and I think that is enough for them to win here.
15 06 28 A.S.
Funny how this neck of the woods utterly--and totally against the Alberta grain--refused to abide by Iggy-collapse logic in 2011; almost like 'NE Calgary Liberalism' is the local answer to 'Jagmeet Singh NDPism' in the 905. Right now, the Notley-Nenshi dynamic is the Liberals' friend in Skyview--that is, if the continued NDP surge doesn't doesn't sweep the rug out from under *this*, too. (Or, who knows--Devinder Shory in *third* place?!?)
15 06 09 CH
This riding is going to go unquestionably to the Liberals. Devinder Shory is not a strong or famous MP, though somewhat infamous because of a mortgage fraud lawsuit. The Liberals are multiplying their support from 2011 in the polls by a factor of between 2 and 3 depending on which pollster you trust, while the Conservatives are keeping only about 2/3 of their 2011 support. This riding, therefore, is going to go Liberal by 10-15 percentage points no matter what.
15 03 31 Fairview Resident
Threehundredeight.com has this riding going Liberal with 88% confidence (or by 20%) based on current polling. The Liberals lost this riding 29% to 56% here when they were at 9% province-wide and the Tories at 67%. Now the Liberals are at about 24% and the Tories are possibly under 50%. Apply that swing universally, and it closes the gap. The relative strength of the candidates seems to reinforce this. Devinder Shory does not appear to be a particularly strong MP. Search his name or visit his Wikipedia page, and he seems to be best known for his involvement in a mortgage fraud civil lawsuit. However, this suit was launched in 2010 and settled in 2013, so it isn't a bombshell. The Liberal nominee on the other hand, Darshan Kang, has been MLA for a portion of this riding since 2008, and has been working hard to win the riding for nearly a year. A lot can happen between now and October, but I think Darshan Kang will pick this one up.
15 03 29 monkey
Due to the growing South Asian community, this is no longer a safe Tory seat like it was a decade ago, but still the Tories have a solid base here and although a uniform swing would show them winning this, any Liberal gains in votes are most likely to come from those who voted NDP or Green last time around rather than Conservative so better to look at not the Liberal vote but rather the non-Conservative vote as ridings where the Tories got under 50% last time around are the ones most likely to flip to the Liberals.
15 03 22 Dr. Bear
Normally I would chalk this up as another easy CPC win, but threehundredeight is indicating that this riding will vote 54% Liberal, 33% CPC with 87% confidence. Hunh! Well I gave the riding another look and this is one where the Liberals have a fair amount of support provincially. The 2011 election saw the highest support for the Liberals since 1993 at 28% (hunh!) and the Liberals have scored a local MLA to be their candidate. Add that to polls suggesting that Calgary is the heart of Alberta-Liberal support (which is not insignificant) and this riding could be in play. While I am not calling this a Liberal pick up, I'm saying that this could be an interesting race. For once I will be paying attention to this riding.

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