Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Edmonton Mill Woods

Prediction Changed
2015-10-19 01:24:17

Constituency Profile


Deol, Jasvir

Downing, Peter

McLean, Ralph

Paley, Allen K.W.

Rankin, Naomi

Sohi, Amarjeet

Stubbs, Colin

Uppal, Tim

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 3350.94%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Edmonton-Mill Woods-Beaumont
   (175/175 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Mike Lake


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15 10 17 South Islander
Liberals are trending upwards in Alberta and have reached about 30%. At those levels and with a concentration of support int he cities, they are going to have to win a few seats in Edmonton and Calgary. This will be one of them.
15 10 16 DSR
Trudeau will be visiting this riding on the eve of the election.
15 10 15 Monkey Cheese
Keep in mind that Mainstreet so far has had a tendency to overestimate Conservative support compared to all other pollsters, so that should be taken into consideration. This is also Alberta, but Rachel Notley proved that Conservatives can be defeated here. The Liberals are surging everywhere in Canada, even Alberta has them well above their 2011 numbers. They are also running a two-term local councilor here. Tim Uppal is one of the better MPs the Conservatives have to offer, but I can't discount the possibly of this being another surprise Liberal steal, likely made possible with some strategic voting.
15 10 13 SC
New Mainstreet poll for the Friends of Canadian Broadcasting shows a surprisingly tight race here: 39 LPC, 39 CPC amongst decided voters, 36 CPC, 35 LPC amongst all voters (11% undecided).
Looks like Mr. Sohi, a two-term local councilor, may be able to finagle a Kevin Lamoureux-style upset here, if the Liberals' national momentum continues to carry him forward.
15 10 14 Jeff S
This should be moved to too close to call between the CPC and the LPC.
15 10 13 South Islander
Mainstreet poll from October 8 has the Liberals and Tories tied at 39. I think the momentum will favour the Liberals but this riding is probably TCTC.
15 10 14 JC
Mainstreet Research Poll from October 8 shows this
This is a close race but I believe Liberal Momentum and strategic voting will push Sohi over the top.
15 10 13
Mainstreet poll done for 'Friends of CBC' on October 8th:
ALL VOTERS: Cons 36 Libs 35 NDP 12 Green 5 Undecided 11
Decided and Leaning only: Cons 39 Libs 39 NDP 15 Greens 7
15 10 05 JR
Edmonton Support is 36% CPC, 26% Liberal, and 21% NDP.
Liberals are going to win a couple seats in Edmonton with those numbers and its Millwoods or Centre that are most likely.
15 09 29 A.S.
Funny how nobody's offered the notion of Amarjeet Sohi running in the hallowed footsteps of David Kilgour (then again, Kilgour wasn't real *Liberal* Liberal the way that Anne McLellan was). I'll still hold back on a prediction, though this looks more like a race for second at this point...
15 09 27 JR
Conservatives and Liberals are virtually tied on lawn signs, but I would give edge in numbers to Liberals. Reason for this judgement is the Conservatives seem to have an opt out policy on signs in some areas. Many cases reported of them installing without permission. They even placed on on the Liberal candidates lawn...oops. Maybe they are using a list of former supporter locations from back in 2011 or even earlier?
Also a mainstreet poll I have seen shows the parties tied, but gives the liberal candidate the edge based on candidate popularity. Uppal is local but he isn't seen very positively after what his brother did last winter.
15 09 25 Woodworth
Mind posting the link for the poll, Hood? The only recent polls I have seen are the Insights West poll which shows the CPC with double the support of both the LPC and NDP in Edmonton and the Alberta Federation of Labour polls which showed the CPC leading with large margins in 5 Edmonton ridings (although this one wasn't polled). Uppal isn't a parachute candidate - he's run twice here and lives here, and has been eyeing a return to this riding for a while to get James Ford off his back. Uppal is safe.
15 09 25 Nick M.
Drove through a neighbourhood in this riding yesterday, the Liberal Candidate had a strong showing of Lawn signs on private property. Not that that is the end all and be all, but I was left with the impression the Liberals are vying for this seat more than the NDP.
Just giving some local input.
15 09 21 Mill Hood
Deol is pretty popular within his own Punjabi community. The NDP campaign there has the potential of sucking up all the progressive vote as the Liberals aren't strong in Edmonton even with a well known councilor whose image now isn't what it used to be.
15 09 19 Hood
Polling in this Riding shows a race between the Liberals and the NDP. Jasvir Deol (NDP) is not well known like the Liberal candidate Amarjeet Sohi but has a small lead right now. Tim Uppal (Conservative) is not this riding's incumbent, he's a Parachute candidate from Sherwood Park and is not polling well. The incumbent for most of this riding was Conservative Mike Lake who is now running for Wetaskawin. Though NDP is slightly ahead right now, Sohi is a stronger Candidate which means the Liberals could pull ahead by Thanksgiving.
15 09 01 R.O.
This is an interesting race , its one of the few Edmonton ridings with a conservative incumbent running and also a riding with a high profile liberal candidate who was a city councillor. ndp did well provincially in Edmonton but dynamics not the same federally without right of centre wildrose/pc vote split they had provincially. The federal conservatives are also polling well in alberta where is liberals are not. current mp Tim Uppal should be able to hold onto this riding.
15 08 26
I know many dippers might get excited about some Edmonton ridings but as someone said, the right wing in Alberta will be united in the federal elections. Strathcona and even Griesbach might stay and go orange, but the dippers won't rally enough voters to defeat the conservative in Manning - Mill wood and Riverbend. I don't see any chance for the NPD to win this riding even if their numbers are higher now.
15 08 24 BC predictor
While I think Calgary seats will be business as usual (CPC with large margin victories) Edmonton will be far more competitive. Past CPC sweeps and almost sweeps were the exception to what I feel should be a fairly NDP leaning city. The NDP will likely win more Edmonton seats than the tories and this is one of them.
15 08 07 Follow The Numbers
The NDP and Conservatives are neck and neck in this riding and the Liberals are also competitive here. If the NDP can keep up their Alberta momentum until election day then they will win this. If they decline in the polls, then it's likely the Conservatives will keep this. The Liberals could possibly play spoiler since their candidate is a city councillor. This will be an exciting riding to watch and I'll reserve judgement until the final days of the campaign. TCTC for now.
15 08 02 John
The thing running against Amarjeet Sohi is that he is running for the Liberals. Liberal wins in Alberta are few and far between.
While it will be a tight race, I think the Conservatives will keep this one.
15 05 19 bza
Besides Edmonton-Centre, this could be the other true 3-way race in Edmonton. Since the Liberals are running a fairly popular City Councillor with Amarjeet Sohi, they could do quite well. Equally, Tim Uppal is one of the more prominent MPs in the Alberta Conservative Caucus. Finally, all the provincial ridings went NDP by large margins in the election, so that could also be a factor.
Given that there is a strong incumbent and a prominent Liberal candidate, I don't think the orange wave will be a sure thing in other ridings such as Strathcona, Griesbach, and Manning. Too close to call at this point.
15 04 28 Madcaper
Edmonton Mill Woods is a seat that could definitely flip to the New Democrats should the Conservatives numbers continue to drop in Alberta. The key in this riding is how many votes the Liberals will pull away from the Conservatives. Although the Liberals are running a popular candidate I still don't see that being a strong enough factor to send the Liberals up the middle. This race is still a 2 party race at this point in time. TCTC
15 04 11 YEGGradStudent
Amarjeet Sohi is a very popular, long time city councillor and will make the Liberals very competitive in this seat. Tim Uppal is not an incumbent in any part of this riding. Edmonton Mill Woods is one of the most diverse ridings in the Prairies, derived from one of the last ridings to vote Liberal in 2004 and clearly one of LPCs most likely picks ups in Alberta.
15 03 25 Jack Cox
The Liberals have chosen to nominate Amarjeet Sohi who is a popular Edmonton City Councillor, they did this with the knowledge that he polls real well against Tim Uppal, right now I'd say that Uppal would have the upper hand but this does have a chance to be competitive.

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