Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Fort McMurray-Cold Lake

Prediction Changed
2015-03-19 18:40:26

Constituency Profile


Berry, Scott

Deheer, Brian

Harrietha, Kyle

Janssen, Roelof

Lepine, Melody

Yurdiga, David

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Fort McMurray-Athabasca
   (121/164 polls, 78.82% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

David Yurdiga

   Westlock-St. Paul
   (43/164 polls, 21.18% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Brian Storseth


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15 10 18 DSR
The call on this one is probably right but in the spirit that we can all pick a shock result I'm going to call this one for Kyle Harrietha who hasn't stopped campaigning since the by-election. Probably a 90% plus chance of a Con win but the riding does have problems which just might help propel Harrietha to Ottawa if only for one term.
15 10 13 South Islander
Poll from September 10 (not Forum) had Kyle Harrietha down by only 10. Since then, he has run a solid campaign, Yurdiga has avoided all debates, the Liberals have surged and the NDP has plummeted. If Harrietha was actually only down by about 10 with the NDP at 19 a month ago, I'd guess he's ahead now. If the Liberals gain a bit more at the expense of the Tories in Alberta during this last week, I'd expect them to win here.
15 09 01 R.O.
There was a by election here in 2014 and a somewhat close race although hardly anyone voted. It may have been one of the lowest turnouts for a by election ever I believe. This riding often has an issue with voter turnout for whatever reasons. This was also wildrose leader Brian Jeans riding when he was a conservative mp. Even with the ndp surge provincially none of these ridings went ndp. David Yurdiga should be able to hold this riding for conservatives.
15 06 28 A.S.
That Fort Mac went provincially Wildrose has more to do with Brian Jean's 'native son' element than anything (a lot of his support may just as well be 'Wildrose Orange')--federally, if we're in an era where only a narrow margin separates NDP and Con in Alberta, this'd still be one of the likelier non-EdmCal opposition targets--though the fact that the strong-second Liberal byelection candidate's running again muddies the 'on behalf of *whom*?' picture. Still, I'll withhold on this one--for now...
15 04 13 RJC
This and Lethbridge are in a competition to be the most likely Alberta riding outside of Calgary or Edmonton to elect a non-Tory MP. I don't think either will succeed this time, however. This is going to be one of those ridings that gives the governing party a scare in a by-election but stays comfortably in the fold in the next general election.
15 03 29 monkey
This riding may have been rather close during a by-election but during a general election, its a different story. Never mind with this being the riding of the oil sands there, it will vote for the most pro-oil sand party even if the oil sands are taking hit as many fear the NDP or Liberals will take action on climate change that may hinder the oil sands from recovering when oil prices rebound.
15 03 28 Jack Cox
Right now It's obvious the Tories have a hold on this riding but if any riding is in play in rural areas it is this one and to a lesser degree perhaps lethbridge.
15 03 25 Dr Bear
This riding has to potential to be something more than yet another Conservative win in Alberta. I'm not optimistic about it though.
15 03 23 JW
While a selected few (very few, if any) ridings in Edmonton or even Calgary may end up being competitive at some point of the campaign, rural Alberta will continue to be solid Conservative territory. Remember, the last time rural Alberta returned a non-Conservative/PC/Reform/Alliance MP was 1968 (two that election, and one of them started with the Social Credits).
15 03 18 Craig Hubley
No matter what poison they're offered, as long as it's deep dark blue... they'll think it's clean water.

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