Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Cariboo-Prince George

Prediction Changed
2015-10-18 00:13:53

Constituency Profile


Calogheros, Tracy

Campbell, Gordon

Clare, Sheldon

De Kroon, Adam

Derrick, Trent

Doherty, Todd

Jaques, Richard Edward

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 10332.39%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Cariboo-Prince George
   (231/231 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Richard Harris


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15 10 17 Gerald
It seems that Trent Derrick has been able to mobilize more First Nations voters. If that turnout is higher there is a very good chance that the NDP will be able to capture this riding.
15 10 17 CH
With the Liberals having the momentum and being only 7 points back in a three-way race in an Environics poll, I would not be at all surprised if Cariboo-Prince George jumps on the Liberal bandwagon. It'll be close, probably needing a recount, but I'm fairly sure the Liberals will squeak this one out.
15 10 14 poljunkiebc
There are a handful of ridings in BC which, in the past, would have made easy predictions, which are proving muddled this time. Federally this area has been a Reform/Alliance/CPC stronghold for decades. Provincially it has see sawed between the NDP and (insert main alternative to NDP).
Generally it doesn't seem to vote in line with whomever holds a majority government in Ottawa (CPC won in 2008 and 2011 here, but had minorities as we know). Actually, has it ever voted for an incumbent majority government? Maybe in 1988, certainly not often if ever.
Still, it's hard to see how the Liberal surge could eat into the CPC vote here. The NDP should put up a decent showing and may take it in a three way race. Just TCTC now though.
15 10 14 Marco Ricci
A new Environics riding poll was released for Cariboo-Prince George today which shows a 3-way race, with the NDP having a narrow lead:
NDP/Derrick (36)
Conservative/Doherty (30)
Liberal/Calogheros (29)
15 10 14 Jeff S
This should be moved to TCTC.
15 10 13 South Islander
Recent Environics poll has NDP/CPC/LPC at 36/30/29. Tories are the incumbents, NDP have the lead and the Liberals are not far back with all the momentum. Nobody expected this to be a 3-way race, but it just might be.
15 10 13 Red PGer
Interesting Environics poll out today with NDP leading with 36%, Conservatives 30% and Liberals 29%. Need to shift this one over to the too close or NDP column. It looks like Doughtery will lose this one for his party, a very winnable riding for the Conservatives.
15 10 11 JAT
At the all candidates meeting on Thursday night Conservative Dougherty came across as mean and arrogant with several uncalled for jabs at the other candidates. He was caught red handed lying to the crowd about reading the trade deal when he hadnt. Not many conservative lawn signs noted.
15 10 08 Red PGer
Interesting debate at the Canfor theatre tonight. Doherty was caught in misrepresenting what he knew about the new Free Trade Agreement with the Pacific Rim. As well with the comments about Aboriginal Women murders by Harper in the past few days, may have opened the door for the NDP. It definitely has moved back to the too close to call.
15 10 07 A.S.
It's the more 'NDP-friendly' of the Prince George ridings; however, it would have been more winnable had the party's summer landslide advantage in BC held. And maybe there's still an outside chance, given the turbulence of BC polls and uncertainty as to *how* CPC-favourable they are--though a countervailing factor is how the BC NDP's presence has diminished over the past decade, the unlikely 'Cariboo bubble' having burst, etc. Still, I'll stay just this side of a Con prediction, just in case.
15 09 16 R.O.
Since my last post has been some news here , Sheldon Clare an independent candidate has entered the race and it sounds like he plans to run a serious campaign. He has never ran here before and its tough to say how he will do here. especially when considering riding is vacant as long time mp retired. I still think the riding will stay conservative but race is getting more interesting.
15 08 25 JR Dawson
Disarray in the CPC camp, and a slow start for the NDP combined with limited support for the Liberals and an out of town Green candidate are significant enough. However, the entry of a high profile independent candidate who seems poised to take votes from both disgruntled conservatives and soft NDP supporters will make this riding one to watch. Weak candidates for the parties which have traditionally had the higher vote counts, will impact support for these parties. Success will depend on strong efforts by candidates' teams to identify and get out the vote.
15 08 07 Follow The Numbers
This is indeed becoming a competitive riding. Recent polls have the Conservatives dropping and the NDP rising in BC. This riding is no exception as 308 has the NDP are at a 67% win confidence. This doesn't guarantee a win for the NDP, but they are becoming very competitive in the province, especially in their historical ridings. This is the Conservative's to lose and if the current polling trends hold up on election day, this is another that they'll lose.
15 08 03 Jan
The NDP always came close in the former riding iterations that held the Cariboo region and the City of Prince George. Conditions are great with the NDP rising and the Conservatives collapsing in BC for this riding to go NDP again.
15 07 26 R.O.
Longtime conservative mp Dick Harris has retired and isn't running again here . however the riding has never really ever been that close and ndp would need to overcome a huge gap from past results to pick up this seat and in a mostly rural area that seems like a challenge to overcome. Especially when considering ndp numbers from 2011 were from an election when there numbers surged across the country so hard to see them going much higher.
15 07 13 Dr Bear
Polling numbers are showing the NDP taking this seat. If they hold, I'll say NDP gain but in the mean time TCTC.
15 07 06 Poll review
308.com has this riding at 67% for the NDP as of July 6. The methodology does not necessarily predict individual ridings, but gives a good idea of regional trends.
Obviously too early to make a change of call, but this should be TCTC at this point.
15 03 29 monkeyh
While this used to be more competitive today its solidly Conservative so expect the Conservatives to hold this even if they fall below 50%. In the last few provincial elections, Prince George has swung from a traditional NDP area to a staunchly BC Liberal area while Cariboo was only competitive provincially due to school and hospital closures under the Campbell government, but has since under Christy Clark swung back to the BC Liberals and stayed solidly Conservative right through.

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