Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

North Okanagan-Shuswap

Prediction Changed
2015-10-18 00:14:55

Constituency Profile


Arnold, Mel

Derkaz, Cindy

George, Chris

Gingras, Jacqui

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 40.01%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (264/267 polls, 99.66% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Colin Mayes

   (3/267 polls, 0.34% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

David Wilks


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15 10 19 Pat
Lyle McWilliam was NDP MP here in the 90s, was her not. There is a strong base of socio-enviro conscious people in these parts ... NDP has a chance to defeat the CPC in North Okanagan - Shuswap.
15 10 15 Mstockda
A combined Oracle and Leadnow poll funded by a local grassroots, non-partisan group called Renewing Democracy (focused on strategic voting, and appalled at the climate denier stance of Conservative candidate Mel Arnold), shows the NDP candidate to be ahead of the Conservative. Check out 'Opinion Poll for North Okanagan Shuswap' on Facebook.
15 10 15 Hopeful
Maybe just wishful thinking but the strategic voting campaigns might have the desired effect here. Clearly a majority want Harper out and Jacqui Gingras is the front runner. The last time this riding sent someone other than a Progressive Conservative, Reform Party, or Conservative, it was an NDP.
15 10 14 poljunkiebc
Despite the Environics poll showing a tight race, I think, once adjusted to actual turnout, the CPC will hold this, by a tight margin, probably less than 40% of the total vote. The NDP will bleed a little bit to the LPC (not much though), but regardless, this has been solid CPC country and will likely stay in their camp, though by a narrow margin.
15 10 14 Marco Ricci
A new Environics riding poll was released for North Okanagan-Shuswap today showing the NDP narrowly leading the Conservatives:
NDP/Gingras (37)
Conservative/Arnold (33)
Liberal/Derkaz (22)
Green/George (8)
15 10 14 Jeff S
Still TCTC.
15 10 08 R.O.
It always appeared this riding was somewhat of a long shot for the ndp even when they were polling way higher. Now the ndp is polling 3rd nationwide but still doing ok in BC . but this is such a historically conservative riding it seem like a tougher challenge for the ndp at this point . Mel Arnold should be able to hold this riding for the conservatives.
15 10 09 Jeff S
NDP slightly ahead.
15 10 08 Monkey Cheese
I'm surprised that this riding hasn't got much attention recently. Mel Arnold, the Conservative candidate here, appears to be a climate change denier, claiming that he's not convinced of the scientific data. That may play well in Alberta, but BC is probably the most environmentally conscious province in Canada. It is also the only province that's a clear three-way race, so there's still a chance that the NDP can take this one, as they have been polling well in the interior. TCTC.
15 09 05 CH
An Insights West poll conducted in late August showed that the NDP is at 37% in the interior, with the Liberals at 26% and the Conservatives at 25%. When I used a methodology similar to 308's to apply this polling data, I got a surprising result: 30% Liberal, 28% Conservative, 26% NDP and 16% Green. This riding is, at the very least, a Conservative-NDP fight, nobody doubts that, but also potentially has the Liberals and Greens in the race. I'm calling this one TCTC for now.
15 08 24 BC predictor
The current TCTC is putting wayyyy to much faith in sites like eric greniers.
CPC hold with a lower (but still sizable) lead
15 08 23 A.S.
Vernonite: yes, you may be right, the Cons may still be well positioned to win. However, given the kind of BC polls we've seen lately (though as Christy Clark'll tell you, ships can pass unexpectedly in the night), I'd reduce the 10,000 'only'-win threshold by half or even less--keeping in mind, too, how a lot of that pre-merger 'strong' Reform vote is of the populist sort that could just as well default Dipper at some point or another. Also, rather than 24/20K, the Con margin I'm seeing on the left side of the page is 16,435.
15 08 20 Vernonite
To even suggest that this riding is a 'toss up' is insulting to anyone that even remotely watches the political landscape in Canada. The last time around, our Conservative MP won by almost 20,000 votes. The new Conservative running this time might 'only' win by 10,000 votes this time. It's actually quite farcical. Every election the NDP think they have a chance of winning this riding and then reality hits them in the face on election day.
This riding will be deep blue like it has been for last 10 elections. This used to be one of the strongest Reform party ridings in Canada before they merged with the Conservatives. My dog Fred could run for the Conservatives and he would win by 15,000 votes.
Dippers, focus your time and energy in Vancouver where you have a real chance at winning some seats. It ain't happening here in the North Okanagan.
15 08 18 Vernonite
Anyone thinking North Okanagan-Shuswap isn't going to the Conservatives has been seriously smoking too much B.C. bud. Check out the margin (on the left column) of the Conservative win the last time around - over 24,000 votes. This riding used to be a hard core Reform riding. Mel Arnold might be replacing Colin Mayes but this one is guaranteed for the Conservatives. My dog Fred could run as a Conservative and he would win in a landslide.
Dippers, focus on Vancouver where you have some real chances at winning. The Interior has been blue and will remain blue.
15 08 07 Follow The Numbers
This riding might not be as blue as you think. The NDP are performing very well in the polls in BC right now and ridings like this can no longer be considered safe Conservative seats. 308 has the NDP just barely winning here, but that number alone is enough to seriously put this riding in jeopardy for the Conservatives. At this point, the idea of a safe Conservative seat in BC is becoming dimmer and dimmer.
15 08 03 Jan
The NDP have held this riding previously (when it was Okanagan-Shuswap). The conditions are right for the NDP to retake this riding from the Conservatives who are collapsing in BC. The NDP have a great candidate in Jacqui Gringas. Watch the NDP take this riding.
15 08 02 R.O.
Even though Colin Mays the current conservative mp isn't running for re election this has been a pretty reliable conservative riding . the ndp are the main opponents and consistently come in second here but are a long way back based on any past numbers from the riding. Its also an oddly strong riding for the green party who came in 3rd here last time. Even if the ndp lead in bc we must remember a lead doesn't mean there winning everything and conservatives still have support in rural places like this riding.
15 07 06 Dr Bear
The BC interior has been one of the great sleeper regions for the NDP. I've been watching NDP poll numbers creep up in a number of ridings over the last month and this one is definitely a toss up. If numbers hold, there will be some surprising new members for the orange team in October.
15 03 25 JC
This is a blue riding, doesn't matter if the Tories don't have a candidate here, they could run the devil himself here so long as he was blue and they'd win.

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