Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Surrey Centre

Prediction Changed
2015-06-20 23:27:51

Constituency Profile


Deneault, Jeremiah

Kahlon, Iqbal

Pielak, Kevin

Sandhu, Jasbir

Sarai, Randeep

Thind, Sucha

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 9482.91%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Surrey North
   (156/156 polls, 99.94% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Jasbir Sandhu


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15 10 17 poljunkiebc
For what it's worth, a bit, at least, Dona Cadman has endorsed the Liberal candidate here. This riding has not been terribly friendly to the Liberals historically, but I think most of Surrey will go red. Most bc polls are suggesting the Liberals either out front or in a dead heat, that support must be coming from somewhere outside of southwest Vancouver, and most of Surrey is one of the likely sources of it.
15 10 16 Marco Ricci
This riding may turn into a 3-way race, depending on how the vote breaks down in B.C., with the Liberals now having a chance.
Former Surrey Conservative MP Dona Cadman has endorsed Liberal candidate Randeep Sarai, so it will be interesting to see if that has any effect:
15 10 07 A.S.
Colourful in recent years thanks to the Cadman family, Surrey Centre seems to be a sleepy point of discussion now, under the presumption that the NDP not has it in the bag--the other-end-of-the-Pattullo anchor for what could be, in a poor-case scenario, the last remaining Lower Mainland NDP node. Though demos and trends lead me to wonder whether the *Liberals* are more the challenge to watch, now: Sukh Dhaliwal-ism advancing a step northward...
15 08 24 BC predictor
Slowly changing from a CPC-NDP swing seat to a safe NDP seat ala New West. NDP hold
15 03 29 monkey
As a solid working class area, this is not friendly turf for the CPC. They only came close last time around as their candidate was Donna Cadman who is the wife of the late Chuck Cadman who was extremely popular in this riding. With her not running, it will likely go solidly NDP like it does provincially.
15 03 26 Carleton Student
Just like Ontario. Three way races help the Conservative. However, it will be a too big hill to climb. The New Democrat will hold on in a nailbiter on the west coast.
15 03 25 Craig Hubley
Predicting NDP hold. Generally in coastal BC there will be a precipitous collapse in Conservative vote due to their astonishing abuses in majority, notably their withdrawal of water protections and starting pipeline fights with First Peoples and coastal communities that clearly don't want them. Plus spying on half of BC and labelling it a 'security threat'. Those lost Conservative votes should shift Liberal by traditional left-right logic especially with a popular leader but here that isn't enough to do more than create a more even #LibCon vote split.
NDP and Greens have been far more consistent champions of the coast, and that's what puts this in NDP column. Those that are concerned about the rising confrontations in BC must also be concerned about Trudeau talking out of both sides of his mouth re tankers and pipelines. In BC, the BC Liberals are a fused formation of federal Liberals and Conservative and accordingly the Liberal brand simply does not mean 'not Conservative' like NDP does.
Finally in urban and near-urban ridings, whether the parties like it or not, the volunteers and donations shift to the candidates that can win, and abandon the candidates that can't to their fate. You often see in urban ridings that people working on NDP and Green campaigns are from all over the city, working where they feel they can make the most difference, not where they live. With nearby ridings definitely lost to other parties there will be a slight boost to NDP volunteers and donations in this one.
15 03 24 Jack Cox
With the Liberals riding high in the polls, this seat and whoever may end up running for them should fall in their hands.

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