Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017

Cariboo North

Prediction Changed
2017-01-17 20:21:29

Constituency Profile



Elliott, Scott

Goulet, Tony

Jaques, Richard Edward

Oakes, Coralee Ella

Cariboo North
Hon. Coralee Oakes

Population (2014):29542
Deviation from average:-44.40%
Geographical Area:38579 sq km
2013 Election Result
Cariboo North
Coralee Oakes
Bob Simpson*
Duncan Barnett
Previous Prediction - 2013 Provincial Election
Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election


08/05/2017 Miles Lunn
This was close last time but one should not assume all of Bob Simpson's support will swing to the NDP. The riding profile of this is not too dissimilar to Cariboo-Chilcoltin which the BC Liberals won by over 20 points. And with their big lead in the interior, they will likely hold every riding in the interior and possibly pick up a few. They may still lose seats but it will be close ones from 2013 and in the Lower Mainland.
26/03/2017 Physastr Master
The left wing candidates won almost 60% of the vote here last election. Of course, since there were two of them, the liberal won. I live nowhere near this riding so I don't pretend to know what the local dynamics are like, but those numbers alone should be enough to make it TCTC, a better guess can be made once the campaign jumps into full swing.
17 03 08 South Islander
This district was a narrow <4% NDP win in 2005 and 2009. In 2013, a vote split between Simpson and his former party gave it to Oakes by just over 4%. She has been a solid cabinet minister and probably has the advantage given her party's strength in the interior.
17 01 13 BCer
Normally this riding is a close-fought battle between the BC Liberals and the NDP, having, since 1991, gone NDP (1991), then BC Liberal (1996), then NDP (2005), then BC Liberal (2013), and with no party winning by a more then 5% margin or so with the exception, of course, of the BC Liberal landslide in 2001.
After NDP incumbent Bob Simpson ran as an Independent and split the left vote in 2013, allowing Coralee Oakes of the BC Liberals to come up the middle and win the seat, many people believed it would only be a matter of time before the NDP came roaring back to take the seat. Simpson seems to have repaired his bonds with the party but is now sitting comfortably as mayor of Quesnel and will not be returning to fight this election.
The NDP have yet to pick a candidate, while Coralee Oakes will fight this one again for the BC Liberals. Normally I would call this a tossup, but due to the lack of organization of the NDP and their mediocre polling numbers in the Interior, I'd call it more a probable BCL seat.

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