Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017

Peace River North

Prediction Changed
2017-01-17 20:23:37

Constituency Profile



Davies, Dan

Dempsey, Rob

Fedderly, Bob

Fraser, Rob

Richert, Jeff

Peace River North
Pat Pimm

Population (2014):43263
Deviation from average:-18.60%
Geographical Area:175813 sq km
2013 Election Result
Peace River North
Pat Pimm*
Arthur Austin Hadland
Judy Ann Fox-McGuire
Wyeth Sigurdson
Previous Prediction - 2013 Provincial Election
Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election


30/04/2017 Another Islander
While Fedderly's poll probably carries a good chunk of bias, if it is to be believed, and is accurate, then it would appear that voters in this riding are looking for a new alternative. The NDP have always done poorly enough here (they got less than 10% here in 2013) to the point that they are probably out of the question. The Liberals might be at somewhat of a disadvantage this time around due to the allegations against Pat Pimm, even if he isn't running again. If people are looking for someone else to vote for this time around, I would expect them to choose an independent over the NDP. That seems to be what happened in the last two elections, as Arthur Hadland came in second both times. The fact that there are three independents running this time could also weaken the Liberal vote to an extent, as it gives voters a larger selection. The main question is, which independent are people leaning towards (if they are leaning towards anyone in particular at all), and is that lean strong enough to defeat Dan Davies?
I'll admit that this is by all means a shot in dark. If all of this is wrong, then I would expect Davies to win on May 9th.
20/04/2017 JoshMartini007
If an independent is going to win in this province it will likely come in this riding. Fedderly has recently released the results of a poll in the region done by a phone polling company where 45% of respondents indicated they would vote independent, 30% would vote Liberal and 25% would vote NDP/Green/Conservative combined. Sadly respondents did not indicate which of the three independents they would vote for and with the Greens and Conservatives not running a portion of that 25% will be reallocated. I’d argue that the Liberals are the favourites now, but this could be a riding to watch out for.
09/04/2017 South Islander
It's been about a month since my prediction that the BC Conservatives would win here. They're still at double digits in the polls, but only have 7 candidates nominated. In 7 more, they have 'interview[s] being scheduled'; in 4 more, 'recruitment [is] underway'; and in 1 more, 'fee and bond received'. That's 19 districts where they have any activity to speak of (out of 87, or 22%), and none of them are the Peace River districts. And they still have no leader. In 2013, they ran 56 candidates (of 85 or 66%), they similarly polled at 11-13% at the start of the campaign, had a long-time former MP as a leader (who made it to the televised debate stage), and still only managed 4.8%. If I knew the party would struggle, but I thought they would get it together and could pull it off here. There are now only 2 days before the writ drops and 9 days before candidate nominations close, and I'm not even confident that they will have a candidate here. If they do, it's hard to believe that they could make a serious play.
17 03 08 South Islander
Conservative voters in the PR districts are the most likely to elect an MLA to the right of the government. Although booted from caucus, the incumbent was still an embarrassment for the BC Liberals in this riding. If the BC Conservatives can hold onto half of their current double-digit support, it will be concentrated enough that I think they would win here.
17 01 14 Jack Cox
Rural BC for the most part tends to vote like Rural Alberta it goes for the more right leaning party and here it's the BC Liberals.

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