Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017

Peace River South

Prediction Changed
2017-01-17 20:23:40

Constituency Profile



Bernier, Mike

Goudie, Stephanie

Peace River South
Hon. Mike Bernier

Population (2014):28104
Deviation from average:-47.10%
Geographical Area:30364 sq km
2013 Election Result
Peace River South
Mike Bernier
Kurt Zane Peats
Darwin Wren
Tyrel Andrew Pohl
Previous Prediction - 2013 Provincial Election
Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election


09/04/2017 South Islander
It's been about a month since my prediction that the BC Conservatives would win. They're still at double digits in the polls, but only have 7 candidates nominated. In 7 more, they have 'interview[s] being scheduled'; in 4 more, 'recruitment [is] underway'; and in 1 more, 'fee and bond received'. That's 19 districts where they have any activity to speak of (out of 87, or 22%), and none of them are the Peace River districts. And they still have no leader. In 2013, they ran 56 candidates (of 85 or 66%), their Peace River South candidate (Peats) had been nominated in December, they similarly polled at 11-13% at the start of the campaign, had a long-time former MP as a leader (who made it to the televised debate stage), and still only managed 4.8%. If I knew the party would struggle, but I thought they would get it together and could pull it off here. There are now only 2 days before the writ drops and 9 days before candidate nominations close, and I'm not even confident that they will have a candidate here. Even if they do, it's hard to believe that they could make a serious play.
17 03 08 South Islander
Conservative voters in the PR districts are the most likely to elect an MLA to the right of this government. BC Conservatives finished within 20% of winning the district last time when they won less than 5% province-wide. If the BC Conservatives can hold onto half of their current double-digit support, it will be concentrated enough that I think they would win here.
17 01 14 Jack Cox
Rural BC for the most part tends to vote like Rural Alberta it goes for the more right leaning party, the only time the NDP came close is in 1991 and 1996 when there was a split in the right wing between the now defunct Social Credit and then The Reform Party, there is no such split now at the moment and so this is in the Liberal Column.

Navigate to British Columbia 2017 Home | Regional Index | Submission

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017
Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2017 - Email Webmaster