Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017


Prediction Changed
2017-05-06 11:32:39

Constituency Profile



Ashton, Dan

Sahlmark, Connie

Sayeed, Tarik

Dan Ashton

Population (2014):56722
Deviation from average:6.80%
Geographical Area:1908 sq km
2013 Election Result
Dan Ashton
Richard James Cannings
Sean Upshaw
Doug Maxwell
Previous Prediction - 2013 Provincial Election
Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election


05/05/2017 Physastr Master
A lot has changed since I first floated the idea of an NDP win here. The NDP has now begun a freefall in the polls in the interior while at the same time surging in Metro Vancouver. The NDP is now back 15 points in the interior, compared to 5 points when I made that prediction. That is now an even bigger gap than last election. With that, NDP pickups are inconceivable and I believe it is time to retreat back to arguing about Skeena going liberal, the NDP is getting nothing here this election. They will have to win using traditional liberal seats in the lower mainland.
29/04/2017 hay sting
While the pundits claim the NDP must win this to form government, there are some intriguing other possibilities that may emerge on May 9. I think the urban/rural+smaller town divide will be entrenched yet further at the election.
The NDP candidate does not seem to have quite as much of a profile as Cannings in 2013. This could be a very tight 3 way race, but I think the former Penticton mayor/Lib candidate will emerge the winner. Again.
26/04/2017 Jack Cox
NDP is leading by ten percent in the province according to mainstreet research. This would be one of the seats that would easily change hands.
25/04/2017 Connie
The local NDP had a very bitter nomination battle that has resulted in many refusing to vote for Tarik, who is also a member of an extremely unpopular City council. Ashton has delivered on his many campaign promises including a new hospital project. Add in a Green Party candidate this time around and no BC Conservative candidate and this one will go to Ashton.
14/04/2017 South Islander
Last election, the NDP had a star candidate (who is now an MP) for this open seat. The BCLs now have incumbency advantage and face a lower profile NDP candidate. Regardless of who's ahead province-wide, the NDP aren't doing any better in the interior - polls put the BCL ahead by between 5% and 19%, with many still tentatively intending to vote for the broke, leaderless and mostly candidate-less Conservatives. This does not bode well for the NDP. Most importantly, the Greens have a candidate in this district but not the Conservatives (unless they can find someone over the long weekend), and there is no centrist "BC First" candidate (who won nearly 5% last time). With a single centre-right candidate and two centre-left candidates, I can't see the NDP closing the gap against an incumbent in an interior seat.
26/03/2017 Physastr Master
This would have been the tipping point for the NDP last election if they were to form government. Yes, Richard Cannings' strong campaign may have affected that along with the Greens' absence, but Cannings is now Penticton's federal MP, so there is certainly still room for the NDP to move in here. Even the cons are looking stronger than last year (although granted that will likely come back down to around 5% by election time like in 2013). I expect Penticton to go with the Government, which is currently the NDP. Yes, polls could change, and that is why it should be TCTC for now.
17 02 24 Bernard von Schulmann
The last time the NDP won Penticton was in 1991 when there was a very tight three way split between the NDP, Liberals and Socred. There is no reason to think the Liberals will lose the seat this time
17 02 08 T.C.
In 2013, a strong right-wing vote existed in the Penticton riding in terms of the BCCP (9.25%) and BC First (4.62%) for a total of 13.87%. With the BCCP implosion and BC First unlikely to run a candidate here again in 2017, that combined ~14% right-wing vote from 2013 will likely flow to the BC Liberals in 2017.
OTOH in 2009, the BC Greens ran a candidate in the Penticton riding and obtained 15.7%. In 2013, the BC Greens did not run a candidate here and the BC NDP received, prima facie, 9.2%/15.7% of that 2009 BC Green vote. The Weaver-led Greens will run candidates in 87/87 ridings including Penticton, which will likely result in much of that 9.2% popular vote share moving from the BC NDP back to the BC Greens.
Reading the entries here, Penticton should be an easy hold for the BC Liberals
17 01 27 Pundit79
Status quo for this pretty conservative riding.
17 01 25 Jack Cox
While this was a closer race last time, I would chalk it up to Dan Ashton not being the incumbent here, the seat has voted for the NDP in the past however under numerous other iterations, this might be close,

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British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017
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