Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017


Prediction Changed
2017-05-04 21:37:47

Constituency Profile



Fraser, Janet Rhoda

Lee, Michael

Trehan, Surinder Singh

Wang, James

Dr. Moira Stilwell

Population (2014):60041
Deviation from average:13.00%
Geographical Area:15 sq km
2013 Election Result
Moira Stilwell*
George Chow
Regan-Heng Zhang
Gurjinder Bains
Espavo Sozo
Previous Prediction - 2013 Provincial Election
Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election


08/05/2017 Jack Cox
The NDP are going to do very well in metro Vancouver, I believe they will win all of Vancouver except for Quilchena, it's their strongest polling region and I get the feeling people are tired of Clark in the Vancouver area. This has been one of the strongest Liberal seats but I just feel the NDP will crack it.
05/05/2017 Physastr Master
Recent polling has the NDP collapsing in the interior and surging in the lower mainland (to a whopping 10-point lead, 16 points bigger than last election!). This means that the NDP can no longer rely on Penticton, Vernon, Kamloops, etc to give them the edge. To form government, the NDP now needs Vancouver-Langara, and given current numbers, I would be very surprised if they didn't get it.
04/05/2017 CJ
South Lander:
This website can predict what the team has to do based on stats or local ground information which I do not have.
Based on the number of empty home on the WEST side of Vancouver Langara and new houses built within the last 4 years, the number of BC Liberal voters in 2013 has changed. Some have died, Some family members moved EAST of the riding or out of Metro Vancouver, New residents as voters or international students may cause a VOTE FOR CHANGE.
Just check the number of new homes on the Eastern part of Vancouver Langara vs. the empty homes, new homes, recent immigrants who may not be able to vote, You go figure out if this Riding is going to VOTE FOR CHANGE in 2017.
The children who grew up in Vancouver Langara are not living here with the parents four years ago.
We will just wait on May 9 to see the actual numbers. Early voting goes to the Opposition not the incumbent since the last MLA is not running in VLA. Vancouver Langara is a new empty riding in 2017?
04/05/2017 South Islander
CJ: You might be experiencing a little confirmation bias. It's clear that you want the BCLs out of power and want voters to give the NDP a chance. But the 7.4% in Langara is almost exactly the same as the provincial average of 7.3%. 2-day turnout in Fairview and Point Grey was even higher at 9.3% and 9.7% respectively. Does that meant they are even more likely to change MLAs? It was 10.3% in Quilchena. Does that mean high advanced turnout is correlated with strong BCL performance? Perhaps, but it most likely just means that campaigns from both parties are working hard to get their vote out in these districts.
02/05/2017 CJ
Well. The Advanced Polls; 2,739/36,811 or 7.4% voted on first Advanced Poll weekend in Vancouver Langara. The voters in this riding want the BC Liberals out of power after 16 years.
01/05/2017 South Islander
The BCLs won here by over 14 when they lost Vancouver by 7. I have seen nothing to indicate that they are doing badly enough in the City to lose here - especially in light of Justason and Ipsos showing them tied/ahead overall and competitive in Metro Van.
29/04/2017 Laurence Putnam
While an NDP pick-up is possible in neighbouring Fraserview, it is a bit of a stretch to justify an NDP win here. I can buy that optimistic dippers can hold out hope here, but when it comes down to brass tacks this riding is Liberal, by 7 points at least. Not really all that close in the grand scheme of things. It would be akin to saying the Liberals could win Kensington. Close enough to make for an interesting race, but not close enough to seriously threaten.
I agree with the recent change to 'too close to call'.
Like in neighbour, Fraserview, I sense winds of change in the air.
Whether they will blow strong enough to bring in an NDP government, I do not know, because Premier Clark is a competent populist. However, there is a feeling that the BCLP is increasingly complacent, out of touch and worse of all, arrogant. If they lose in a few weeks, it won't be because of Christy but it will be a result of a sense 'divine rule' among the BC Liberal elite.
BC, like most parts of the developed world has been affected by global wealth migration and quantitative easing (money printing/absurdly low interest rates).
It's left a lot of big winners but also a lot of losers who (1) didn't jump on board the real estate train or (2) live in economically depressed areas like northern/up country BC.
Langara has a lot of 'winners' as real estate here is going up astronomically but there is also a feeling of insecurity even among the winners that things could change quickly for the worse thanks to these strange economic times we live in.
Of course, those who rent or came late to the party only suffer from the costs not the benefits of the global money frenzy coming to Vancouver.
They will vote to upset the status quo regardless of party affiliation.
26/04/2017 David
Seeing a surprising number of orange James Wang signs. Eric Grenier indicates that the riding is leaning NDP. Apartment dwellers in Marpole may swing it to the NDP if they show up. Others just tired of Christy Clark may go NDP too.
21/04/2017 Proud BCer
Incumbent Liberal MLA Moira Stillwell has retired, but this seat should still stay with her party, baring a very large NDP majority. new BCL candidate Michael Lee is a fairly good pick for them.
17/04/2017 Malkmus
This one is staying Liberal. It's an affluent area and Dr. Moira Stilwell is on the more progressive side of her party and can appeal to small-"l" liberals more than most.
17 03 09 South Islander
The NDP thought they'd make a play for this riding last time and lost by 14%. When they have Fairview and Point Grey to defend, and a better shot at Fraserview, this isn't going to be (and shouldn't be) one of their targets.
17 01 19 Pundit79
I can't see this fairly affluent riding change hands.

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