Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017


Prediction Changed
2017-01-26 22:40:30

Constituency Profile



Dorval, Barry Charles

Foster, Eric Bailey

Jefcoat, Don

Westgate, Keli

Eric Foster

Population (2014):62106
Deviation from average:16.90%
Geographical Area:5035 sq km
2013 Election Result
Eric Bailey Foster*
Mark Steven Olsen
Scott Anderson
Rebecca Helps
Korry Zepik
Previous Prediction - 2013 Provincial Election
Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election


22/04/2017 Physastr Master
There seems to be a common misconception passing around that the NDP is doing no better in the interior, and if you believe polling at all, this simply is not true. Last election, the liberals won 48% of the vote to the NDP's 35% in the interior, where current polling has the NDP at 37% to the Liberals' 43%. Sure, the NDP still isn't ahead, but that's a significant swing. Current projections from the CBC poll tracker have the NDP winning 11 seats in the interior (which, by their definition, includes Powell River-Sunshine Coast). I would suspect that with the current numbers, the NDP should hold their current seats, and pick up a few more, with the top contenders being Cariboo North, Fraser-Nicola, Boundary-Similkameen, Penticton, and Vernon-Monashee. Vernon in particular has lately been a very unpredictable riding - the NDP lost by only 6% in 2009 alongside a strangely strong green candidate, prior to a much more comfortable liberal win in 2013. That said, at 12%, the gap here can still be closed. The conservatives will be running again here this year, which should help the NDP. I have heard very little about the race in this riding this year, and that may be a good thing. After 2013, it seems apparent that the Liberals do much better for turnout when they are on the brink of losing. Perhaps the apparent safety of this riding will lull the Liberals into an upset come May.
17 01 25 Jack Cox
This is an Area the BC Liberals have always seemed to win despite the fluctuating winning percentages, the electorate however seemingly loves to vote for the Tories here quite a bit. But unless a strong Tory candidate emerges this is staying in the Liberal Column.

Navigate to British Columbia 2017 Home | Regional Index | Submission

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017
Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2017 - Email Webmaster