Vernon-Monashee

	Dorval, Barry Charles
	Foster, Eric Bailey
	Jefcoat, Don
	Westgate, Keli
Incumbent:
	Vernon-Monashee Eric Foster

Reference:

Population (2014):			62106
Deviation from average:			16.90%
Geographical Area:			5035 sq km
2013 Election Result
	Vernon-Monashee
		Eric Bailey Foster*
		12503	46.34%
		Mark Steven Olsen
		9233	34.22%
		Scott Anderson
		3169	11.75%
		Rebecca Helps
		1905	7.06%
		Korry Zepik
		169	0.63%
Previous Prediction - 2013 Provincial Election Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election

	22/04/2017	Physastr Master 154.20.91.151
There seems to be a common misconception passing around that the NDP is doing no better in the interior, and if you believe polling at all, this simply is not true. Last election, the liberals won 48% of the vote to the NDP's 35% in the interior, where current polling has the NDP at 37% to the Liberals' 43%. Sure, the NDP still isn't ahead, but that's a significant swing. Current projections from the CBC poll tracker have the NDP winning 11 seats in the interior (which, by their definition, includes Powell River-Sunshine Coast). I would suspect that with the current numbers, the NDP should hold their current seats, and pick up a few more, with the top contenders being Cariboo North, Fraser-Nicola, Boundary-Similkameen, Penticton, and Vernon-Monashee. Vernon in particular has lately been a very unpredictable riding - the NDP lost by only 6% in 2009 alongside a strangely strong green candidate, prior to a much more comfortable liberal win in 2013. That said, at 12%, the gap here can still be closed. The conservatives will be running again here this year, which should help the NDP. I have heard very little about the race in this riding this year, and that may be a good thing. After 2013, it seems apparent that the Liberals do much better for turnout when they are on the brink of losing. Perhaps the apparent safety of this riding will lull the Liberals into an upset come May.
	17 01 25	Jack Cox 24.212.227.58
This is an Area the BC Liberals have always seemed to win despite the fluctuating winning percentages, the electorate however seemingly loves to vote for the Tories here quite a bit. But unless a strong Tory candidate emerges this is staying in the Liberal Column.