Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018


Prediction Changed
2018-06-05 23:54:00

Constituency Profile








   Granville Anderson

   (79.34% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
   Jennifer K. French

   (17.14% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
   Lorne Coe

   (3.51% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):115395

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

16532 34.19%
15768 32.61%
13752 28.44%
1899 3.93%
OTHERS 405 0.84%
Total Transposed 48356

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed


Total Transposed39053


Total Transposed7720


Total Transposed1584

Federal Election Result (2015):

Erin O'Toole **
Corinna Traill
Derek Spence
Stacey Leadbetter
Andrew Moriarity


06/06/2018 durhamgal
The progressive conservative candidate has mislead the voters by telling them that she has returned to the riding. She was never in the riding she is from Thornhill and went to work for Harper for ten years then Brown interfered in the nomination process so the this PC candidate would win. If she should win, not likely, she will have to live with it, as well as our federal MP who also played a role. What is happening at the doors and has become louder recently is NO TO FORD especially women and they go to vote witch way who knows but vote they will and this will decided this riding.
05/06/2018 LR
This riding going back to the comfort of the PC's.
a lot of PC signs showing up on homes unlike the side of the road where the Liberal and NDP signs are. Everyone is looking for a change from the Liberals and
People here do remember the Rae days and the NPD promise to close Pickering.
05/06/2018 Christopher L
With the NDP's support softening just a bit in the most recent polls (maybe the Renata Ford news will change things, though) I think this is probably shifting back to the PCs. Yes there's the NDP influence of Oshawa to take into account, but this is still a fairly wealthy suburban riding. It's going to be a close two way race, but I think the Liberal incumbent will hold on to just enough votes to deny victory to the NDP.
04/06/2018 AR
The NDP will be removing tolls on the 412 and cancel planned tolls on the 418. If that doesn't clinch this riding for the NDP, I don't know what will.
04/06/2018 MS from Durham
Carol Berny - I agreed with your prediction in 2014 that this would go Liberal. However, if you drive by homes of former active Liberals, this time, you so often see either no sign or a Joel Usher sign. The NDP and Liberals will flip this time.
This has been a PC stronghold in the past, but the riding voted strongly for Elliott in the leadership and a lot are not Ford fans. Combine that with a PC candidate parachuted in from Ottawa, and a local candidate not being allowed to run, and I don't see the PC base showing up strongly for Park.
03/06/2018 Anonymous
While there are almost equal amounts of signs for NDP and PC, I am leaning towards those riding going Orange. The NDP rally with Andrea Horwath would have helped them as it is rare to have major names in the area. The rally had a strong turnout and more signs have appeared. The nearby candidate Joel Usher has an office right in the heart of Bowmanville and is easy to find, while the others are harder to find.
02/06/2018 The_A_Man33
Lots of people move out to this area from Oshawa. Plus a strong candidate for the NDP will make this riding go orange
31/05/2018 durham gal
The Conservative candidate is very weak, and has run a poor campaign, which is unusual for them. We have had no contact from the campaign at all. The NDP is running a better one than conservatives, and the liberal candidate is working the hardest that is how he won in 2014. We will see.
23/05/2018 Dr. Bear
I can not ignore that strong showing for the NDP in 2014. Being that close, given the momentum the NDP currently has in the 905, and the fact that this momentum currently is localized to certain areas with previously strong support, I think the NDP have a shot here. I'm saying TCTC for the moment.
25/05/2018 Bza
This is a riding that flipped NDP in the 1990 election. I think it will go NDP with how things are going in this election.
20/05/2018 Josh T
Going out on a limb in this one and saying this is flipping to the NDP. Full disclosure: I used to work for the previous Tory MP (Oda).
Why am I saying NDP? Well, there's a huge surge of orange signs on private property; on properties that have never had sign, or previously backed other parties. I think this will be a surprise on election night (much like 2014).
17/05/2018 carolberney@yahoo.ca
Folks take a look back at the 2014 election Durham site and have a look at your postings and look at mine. People are starting to take there Ford signs down here. Several have told me that the signs were put up without their permission and they are not voting for Ford.
09/05/2018 The Lobster
Not so fast. I agree we can count the Liberals out (will likely run third), but a surging NDP, and much working class spillover from Oshawa means the NDP can't be counted out here either. If the NDP begins to clearly break away from the Liberals, this is in play. People assume a 35-to-40-seat ceiling for the NDP but if they go beyond that, expect ridings like this to be surprisingly close.
28/04/2018 A.S.
The 2014 Durham result was a wet dream for those hardcore leftish election geeks seeking an argument for three-way competitiveness over united-front 'strategic voting'--we got the unlikeliest OLP gain of all that cycle; yet the NDP still cornered a quarter of the vote and a lot of 'won' or 'near-won' polls even in sprawly Bowmanville and Clarington, and that's *before* redistribution knocked out Uxbridge on behalf of North Oshawa. If we go by polls and prior (or federal) patterns, though, those crazy notional 2014 numbers presage a 2018 'corrective' snooze on behalf of the Tories--well, maybe mildly interesting if the NDP holds its auto-town-burban base and Granville Anderson becomes the only(?) third-place incumbent. Or, *more* than mildly interesting if the NDP actually manages to *build* on that base...
26/03/2018 Dr.Bear
Really was surprised that the Liberals won this in 2014. Was a squeaker then. No chance of a repeat with numbers the way they are now.
16/03/2018 MF
A victim of the Hudak debacle. Hard to believe this is a Liberal-held seat. It seems like just about the lowest hanging fruit for the PCs, regardless of their leader.
21/12/2017 Gabbith
PCs had no business losing this seat in 2014. They should pick this back up even with a marginal increase in the province.
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
This was probably one of the biggest shockers last election, but considering the change in the political landscape never mind federally the Tories almost won by 10 points here, the PCs would need a massive blunder to not win here. This is one of their easiest pickings.
09/12/2017 KXS
The lowest of low hanging fruit for the Tories.
The Liberals won this riding in 2014 due to a weak PC candidate, PC compliancy and Hudak's '100 000 jobs cut'. None of those factors will play off this time around.
06/12/2017 Kathy
The PCs narrowly lost this long held riding in 2014 because of Liberal Majority. I suspect they will have no trouble winning it back.

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Ontario Provincial Election - 2018
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