|No NDP movement + liberal collapse = Tory win.|
|I have yet to see an NDP sign on a single lawn in Russell, Embrun or the area that I drive through to and from work. This is a 2 horse race. Which puts this in play for the OLP moreso than other areas in Ontario. Leroux will be hard to beat even with the anti-OLP sentiment flowing through most voters' veins.|
|While a typically strong Liberal riding; I see a different set of circumstances this time. Incumbent has retired, incumbent party at 3rd place in the polls, PC's are up in the region, and the Liberal candidate whining in the news about some of his signs being stolen on a Saturday night and bringing in the police to investigate doesn't reflect well on him. Tories need a net shift of 11 points from them to the Liberals, and the Libs are going to bleed to the NDP also, even if not in big numbers in this riding, 3 or 4 points might very well seal the deal. In this type of watershed election, I see a PC win this time; low-hanging fruit for the Libs next time.|
|NDP has finally announced a candidate in GPR. It will be interesting to see if Liberal voters choose to jump over to NDP or the expected PC, especially after Pierre Leroux's snafu with Vanier.|
|Hard to say because this riding is a farmers riding.My guess the Conservatives , ndp & liberals will cause this to be a 3 way race.|
|New from April 5, 2018: Russell's mayor is running for the Libs, filling the void left by Grant Crack (which TBH was not a huge void), against one of his councilwomen. |
So there are a few things I see here:
- Leroux's former conservative creds might play well to those who might lean more right but not like Ford
- The fact that everyone I have asked in Russell about both candidates, no one had a bad thing to say about them, indicates to me that they are both non-controversial and must be doing a decent job (you only hear about it when someone messes up, right?
- Leroux appears not to be super confident about his chances because he's not giving up his mayorship just yet.
- Simard has had a head start on campaigning - although I haven't seen her pop up in my neck of the woods....
|Confronting a crackhead's brother, Crack crack'd up--still, he defied expectations by winning in 2011, and then by winning solidly in 2014, and who knows how much of that reflected a more general geographic Liberal tradition refusing to die. Oh, and for those fearing the Granic-Allen-i-zation of the PCs, keep in mind that the former Conservative MP hereabouts is SoCon federal leadership candidate Pierre Lemieux.|
|The liberal mpp is not running and last time this riding was open 2011. it was much closer than normal even though it|
|Grant Crack is not running again so just makes this seat even more vulnerable, especially considering how unpopular the Liberals are in rural Ontario. The only thing that might save them is Doug Ford is quite unpopular in the Ottawa area where his style doesn't come across well, but perhaps will be less of an issue here. If polls tighten, the Liberals could still hold this, but if the PCs maintain a double digit lead, they will likely pick this up.|
|From the Toronto Star: 'Two GTA Liberal cabinet ministers and an Eastern Ontario MPP have announced they will not run for re-election in June.|
'International Trade Minister Michael Chan, 66, who represents Markham, and Government and Consumer Affairs Minister Tracy MacCharles, 54, the Pickering-Scarborough East MPP, are retiring.
'Joining them is Liberal MPP Grant Crack, 55, who has represented Glengarry-Prescott-Russell since 2011.'
|Grant Crack has unexpectedly announced his retirement.|
|The polls being what they are, no rural seat is safe for the Liberals, francophone presence or not. The federal Conservatives won here throughout the Harper era, indicating this seat is perhaps more bellwether these days than perma-Lib. The PC candidate is francophone too. Close call but I give the edge to the PCs.|
|This riding is unique and sometimes is hard to predict because of it, yet the demographics and recent history of this riding make me lean heavily towards this being a Liberal win.|
|This riding has always sent a Liberal to Queens Park and nothing's going to change this time. If the PC's are in a majority territory, they may make this interesting, but that means a close Liberal win rather than a landslide Liberal win|
|Unlike most rural Ontario ridings, this is one the Liberals tend to do well in due to the large Francophone population. Although in the last decade this has gone from being a Liberal stronghold to more of a bellwether so will likely back whichever party forms government which looks to be the PCs at the moment but that could change.|