Perth-Wellington

	KNIGHT, BRENDAN
	MARSHALL, SCOTT
	MCKENDRICK, PAUL
	O'BRIEN, MICHAEL
	OLSEN, LISA
	PETTAPIECE, RANDY
	SMEENK, ROB
	STANTON, ANDREW

Incumbent(s):

	Perth-Wellington    Randy Pettapiece    (100.00% of voters in new riding)    2014/2008 Predictions

Reference:

Population (2011):			104912
2014 Election Result: Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton
		13585	33.10%
		15992	38.96%
		7764	18.91%
		2005	4.88%
	OTHERS	1702	4.15%
	Total Transposed	41048
	Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed
	Perth-Wellington
		13585
		15992
		7764
		2005
	Others	1702
	Total Transposed	41048
Federal Election Result (2015):
		John Nater
		22255	42.90%
		Stephen McCotter
		19480	37.60%
		Ethan Rabidoux
		7756	15.00%
		Nicole Ramsdale
		1347	2.60%
		Irma DeVries
		794	1.50%
		Roger Fuhr
		219	0.40%

	01/06/2018	PM 174.115.69.77
Going PC. Too much ground for the NDP to gain and too many votes for the Liberals to lose, to make this happen.
	5/23/2018	Dr. Bear 184.175.13.231
If this were the 2014 election, I would argue that this should be TCTC. However, the surging NDP will only draw support away from the Liberals, allowing the PC to come safely up the middle. In PC numbers dwindle in SW Ontario further, I may be inclined to suggest some competitiveness. That has not happened yet.
	23/05/2018	Christopher L 184.151.37.73
An interesting riding with residual Liberal strength in Stratford (and a bit in Listowel) - but which as a whole seems to be slowly trending away from the Liberals has they become a more urban, GTA focused party. Some of the Stratford creative class vote might move to the NDP, probably enough to put them into second place, but it almost certainly won't be enough to knock off Pettapiece - he should be able to get the PC vote at least into the low 40s, and that will be enough to get re-elected.
	18/05/2018	Bza 142.229.115.110
Definitely see this as a PC hold.
	06/05/2018	A.S. 99.225.48.35
Re 'the Liberals have always done well here': provincially speaking, that was either back in the party's Bob Nixon rural/heartland rump days, or more recently when John Wilkinson benefited from McGuinty-clan coziness. Remember: sans Wilkinson, this was the rare seat to show a technical swing *to* the PCs in 2014 (even if Pettapiece still lost a percentage point). And given the way polling's going, it'll probably taking hanging on to that Stratford creative class for dear life for the Libs to even maintain second place this time around.
	20/03/2018	Stevo 165.225.76.198
Yes, Stratford is what prevents Perth-Wellington from ascending to the top tier of safe Tory seats. Nevertheless, difficult to imagine a united right ever losing here.
	16/03/2018	Craig 130.18.104.137
While Stratford tends to favour the Liberals due to the artsy nature of the community, the rest of the riding should go overwhelmingly to the PC's, especially with Doug Ford reading from their songbook. It was a solid blue riding no matter what, but any losses among educated, creative-type voters should be more than offset by gains among working class voters. In addition, the Liberals are doing horrendous in most of southwestern Ontario, and especially among the demographics which are most prevalent here. As a result, this seat stays PC.
	30/12/2017	seasaw 99.225.226.230
Wouldn't call it PC so quickly. The Liberals have always done well here and if they're in a big majority territory, they'll certainly pick up this riding. For now the PC's have the upper hand but the election is just over five months from now, and we don't know what's going to happen then. This is another riding that we have to wait and see before we can make an accurate prediction
	13/12/2017	M. Lunn 174.7.110.151
Stratford is a more artsy left of centre town, but the rest of the riding where 2/3 live is solidly blue. Liberals have done well here in the past and will probably come in second, but considering how unpopular they are in rural Ontario, doubt they can hold this even if they win Stratford.
	10/12/2017	Innocent bystander 67.215.130.68
Barring any unusual local circumstances, any rural riding held by the Tories now will be held by the Tories after the election.