Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018


Prediction Changed
2018-06-01 20:57:00

Constituency Profile











   Randy Pettapiece

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):104912

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

13585 33.10%
15992 38.96%
7764 18.91%
2005 4.88%
OTHERS 1702 4.15%
Total Transposed 41048

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed


Total Transposed41048

Federal Election Result (2015):

John Nater
Stephen McCotter
Ethan Rabidoux
Nicole Ramsdale
Irma DeVries
Roger Fuhr


01/06/2018 PM
Going PC. Too much ground for the NDP to gain and too many votes for the Liberals to lose, to make this happen.
5/23/2018 Dr. Bear
If this were the 2014 election, I would argue that this should be TCTC. However, the surging NDP will only draw support away from the Liberals, allowing the PC to come safely up the middle. In PC numbers dwindle in SW Ontario further, I may be inclined to suggest some competitiveness. That has not happened yet.
23/05/2018 Christopher L
An interesting riding with residual Liberal strength in Stratford (and a bit in Listowel) - but which as a whole seems to be slowly trending away from the Liberals has they become a more urban, GTA focused party. Some of the Stratford creative class vote might move to the NDP, probably enough to put them into second place, but it almost certainly won't be enough to knock off Pettapiece - he should be able to get the PC vote at least into the low 40s, and that will be enough to get re-elected.
18/05/2018 Bza
Definitely see this as a PC hold.
06/05/2018 A.S.
Re 'the Liberals have always done well here': provincially speaking, that was either back in the party's Bob Nixon rural/heartland rump days, or more recently when John Wilkinson benefited from McGuinty-clan coziness. Remember: sans Wilkinson, this was the rare seat to show a technical swing *to* the PCs in 2014 (even if Pettapiece still lost a percentage point). And given the way polling's going, it'll probably taking hanging on to that Stratford creative class for dear life for the Libs to even maintain second place this time around.
20/03/2018 Stevo
Yes, Stratford is what prevents Perth-Wellington from ascending to the top tier of safe Tory seats. Nevertheless, difficult to imagine a united right ever losing here.
16/03/2018 Craig
While Stratford tends to favour the Liberals due to the artsy nature of the community, the rest of the riding should go overwhelmingly to the PC's, especially with Doug Ford reading from their songbook.
It was a solid blue riding no matter what, but any losses among educated, creative-type voters should be more than offset by gains among working class voters. In addition, the Liberals are doing horrendous in most of southwestern Ontario, and especially among the demographics which are most prevalent here. As a result, this seat stays PC.
30/12/2017 seasaw
Wouldn't call it PC so quickly. The Liberals have always done well here and if they're in a big majority territory, they'll certainly pick up this riding. For now the PC's have the upper hand but the election is just over five months from now, and we don't know what's going to happen then. This is another riding that we have to wait and see before we can make an accurate prediction
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
Stratford is a more artsy left of centre town, but the rest of the riding where 2/3 live is solidly blue. Liberals have done well here in the past and will probably come in second, but considering how unpopular they are in rural Ontario, doubt they can hold this even if they win Stratford.
10/12/2017 Innocent bystander
Barring any unusual local circumstances, any rural riding held by the Tories now will be held by the Tories after the election.

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